China unbending on Iran
Thursday April 27, 09:58 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China gave no sign it was ready to line up behind Western powers seeking sanctions against Iran on Thursday, the day before a key U.N. report on Tehran's nuclear activities, but analysts said it was unlikely to block their way.
Repeating its mantra that negotiations and diplomacy were the only way out of the crisis, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing called for calm, restraint and patience.
"A diplomatic solution is the correct choice and is in the interests of all parties," ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a regular news briefing. "China urges all parties to avoid measures that could worsen the situation."
On Friday, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei is to report to the agency's board and U.N. Security Council on whether Iran has stopped enriching uranium, a process that can create fuel for nuclear weapons.
Iran says it will not stop enrichment, which it says is purely for civilian purposes and not part of what Washington says is a clandestine effort to make atomic bombs.
The United States, backed by Britain and France, has been pushing for sanctions if -- as it expects -- the IAEA reports that Iran has flouted U.N. demands.
But Russia and China, the Security Council's other two veto-holding permanent members, oppose any embargo.
On Tuesday, China rejected a U.S. proposal to order Iran to suspend enrichment under legally binding U.N. provisions. It wants the IAEA board to consider ElBaradei's report before the Security Council addresses the issue.
MEETING THE U.S. HALFWAY
But several analysts said China would be reluctant to scuttle a Council resolution on Iran, as such a step would risk a rift with Washington and Brussels.
As long as the United States, Britain and France do not push for immediate action and leave open the door to compromise, China is likely to go along with a resolution warning Tehran, said Shi Yinhong, a foreign policy expert at the People's University of China in Beijing.
"China is doing its best to meet the U.S. halfway while protecting its own interests," he said of wrangling over a resolution.
"China may try to soften the wording or -- when it comes to sanctions -- limit them. But China also knows a vote against a resolution would do terrible damage to relations with the U.S.."
More than 11 percent of China's crude oil imports in 2005 came from Iran, and the two countries have signed several oil and gas development deals.
But Beijing is mindful that the United States and European Union powers are more united over Iran than they were over Iraq, said Robert Sutter, a former U.S. government analyst who now teaches at Georgetown University in Washington.
"China has a big stake in Europe, so the fact that the EU is standing so closely to the U.S. is a big factor," Sutter said of Chinese diplomacy over Iran.
In past weeks, senior Chinese diplomats have lobbied Tehran to back away from confrontation. Chinese diplomats have privately said Tehran is unhappy with Beijing's pressure, said Andrew Small, a Beijing-based analyst for the Foreign Policy Centre, a British think-tank.
"If this steady process of exhausting all options continues, I think there's a good chance China will be carried along on Iran," he said of a possible U.N. resolution.