Iran Threatens Full-Scale Enrichment Work


By GEORGE JAHN

Iran Threatens Full-Scale Enrichment Work



VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran threatened to retaliate Thursday in the face of almost certain referral to the U.N. Security Council for its nuclear activities, and the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the dispute was "reaching a critical phase."

Ahead of a decision by the IAEA's 35-nation board, U.S. and European delegates turned to behind-the-scenes diplomacy to build the broadest possible support for reporting Iran to the council over concerns it is seeking nuclear weapons.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, in a letter made available to the AP, warned IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei that referral would leave Iran no choice but "to suspend all the voluntary measures and extra cooperation" with the IAEA - shorthand for reducing IAEA monitoring to a minimum.

Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and a few other nations at odds with Washington remained opposed to referral. India was said to be leaning toward supporting referral.

Diplomats accredited to the IAEA meeting said backing for Iran had shrunk among the U.N. nuclear watchdog's board since Russia and China swung their support behind referral at an overnight meeting with the United States, France and Britain - the other three permanent council members - that started Monday.

"There's a solid majority in favor of reporting," Gregory L. Schulte, the chief U.S. delegate to the IAEA, told The Associated Press. "There's even a more solid majority after Monday."

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack the number of nations expected to vote against referral were in the "low to single digits."

Iran remained defiant. Larijani told ElBaradei that his country would severely curtail agency inspections and resume uranium enrichment if reported to the council.

Furthermore, "all the peaceful nuclear activities being under voluntary suspension would be resumed without any restriction," said the letter, suggesting a resumption of work on full-scale uranium enrichment - a possible pathway to nuclear arms.

Iran has made such threats before. What was significant this time, however, was that the warnings were in the form of a formal notification to the head of the IAEA.

As Thursday's meeting adjourned, U.S. and European diplomats intensified efforts to widen support for a European draft resolution calling for Iran to be brought before the council.

ElBaradei said there was a "window of opportunity" to defuse the crisis, stressing that even if the issue is referred, the Security Council would not take up the issue before next month.

"We are reaching a critical phase but it is not a crisis," he said.

Iran, which claims its program is peaceful and aimed only at generating electricity, has repeatedly warned that such action would provoke it into doing exactly what the world wants it to renounce - starting full-scale uranium enrichment - as well as curtailing IAEA inspections.

Key members of the Security Council remained unmoved.

Grigory Berdennikov, Russia's chief IAEA delegate, reinforced Moscow's position outside the meeting, saying referral to the Security Council would send Iran "a serious signal."

Schulte agreed.

"It is time to send a clear and unequivocal message to the Iranian regime about the concerns of the international community by reporting this issue to the Security Council," he said.

Washington has waited years for international suspicions over Iran's nuclear ambitions to translate into support among board nations.

Only a simple majority is needed to approve the text, but the United States and its backers have held off pushing for earlier referral in hopes of building support for the measure. Support has grown since Jan. 10, when Iran stripped IAEA seals from enrichment equipment and announced it would restart the program.

While a broad majority of member nations support referral, a few countries that have policy disputes with Washington remain opposed - among them Cuba, Venezuela, Syria and Belarus.

"My delegation manifests its total disagreement with the proposal ... to bring it to the Security Council," said Venezuela's Gustavo Marques Marin. And Syria's Safwan Ghanem told reporters: "We will vote 'no.'"

A vote was expected Friday or Saturday. Countries opposed have the choice of voting against the text or abstaining.

Speaking for Germany, Britain and France - the three nations representing the European Union - German chief delegate Herbert Honsowitz told the meeting: "The time now has come for the Security Council to get involved."

The confidential draft resolution obtained by the AP "requests the director general to report to the Security Council" on steps Iran needs to take to dispel international suspicion it could be seeking to manufacture nuclear arms.

The draft expresses "serious concerns about Iran's nuclear program" and notes "the absence of confidence that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes."

If the board approves referral as expected, it will launch a protracted process that could end in Security Council sanctions for Tehran.

But no action is expected for weeks, if not months. Moscow and Beijing support referral only on condition that the council do nothing until at least March, when the board next meets to review the status of an IAEA inquiry into Iran's nuclear program and recommends further action.

"I am making very clear that the Security Council is not asked at this stage to take any action," ElBaradei said.

Berdennikov also told reporters that Russia "insists" no Security Council action be taken before March.

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Associated Press Writer Palma Benczenleitner contributed to this report.

Why no action to be taken until March? By Russia????? Not the security council? Ok is it just me.....


or does this smell fishy?!

Why Iran Can Afford to Be So Bold


http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&id=1991

Is Iran crazy, or canny? Before you answer, consider the ace it has up its sleeve.

Iran has guts, there’s no doubt about it—what with its pressing forward with nuclear development while threatening to wipe Israel off the map. But these moves aren’t as careless as some people assume, considering the ace Tehran has up its sleeve.

Oil, that is.

The equation is simple. The advanced economies of America and Europe rely heavily on a stable supply of oil, much of it from opec member nations. Iran, which produces 4.2 million barrels of oil per day, is the second-largest opec producer and an instrumental contributor to the global supply of oil.

To put it even more plainly: Iran has excess oil; America, Europe and Asia need it. Oil has become the Achilles heel of the world’s greatest, most advanced nations.

In the same manner that nutrient-rich sap is the lifeblood of a tree, providing it with the power and energy to grow tall and strong, oil is the sap that provides energy (in many cases, literally) to the largest and most affluent economies on the globe. Oil is absolutely central to our modern lifestyles. Jeopardize or limit the flow of sap up the trunk, and you stress a tree’s growth and overall health. While it may not die, it will stop growing, and many of its branches will wilt and die. A mere restriction in the volume of sap flowing up the trunk would have dire results on the tree’s health and its ability to produce fruit.

Although Iran can’t stop the flow of oil, it can reduce the volume of oil flowing onto the global market. And any such restriction in oil flow would yield dire results for the economies of America, Europe and Asia—directly affecting transportation, manufacturing, industry, agriculture and the military, with indirect ramifications for every other economic sector. Four million fewer barrels of oil per day on the market would likely create economic chaos, which would precipitate political crisis.

But here is where the analogy breaks down. While a tree wouldn’t respond to a mere threat to reduce its sap flow, with oil it is different. Even the threat of there not being enough oil to meet global demands has an impact, particularly in today’s world where oil supplies are growing increasingly tight.

We all experienced this phenomenon last week. As Europe and America scrambled to rummage up support for UN sanctions against Tehran because it is resuming its nuclear activities, the Iranian oil minister warned that “[o]ne of the consequences [of sanctions] will be the unleashing of a crisis in the oil sector and particularly a price hike” (Agence France Presse, January 19). The news of a potential disruption in the flow of oil from Iran caused oil prices to jump to near four-month highs.

This is quite startling. Iran didn’t actually reduce the amount of oil it contributes to global supply, it just threatened to reduce it—and look what happened.

The amount of influence Iran wields in this scenario is ridiculous. The Iranian oil minister makes two or three statements to the Middle Eastern press, and you have to pay more at the gas pump. The Iranian oil minister is taking more money from your wallet, and there is little you can do to stop him.

Why? Because America, as well as Europe and Asia are absolutely reliant on the stable flow of oil. Even though the U.S. doesn’t receive oil directly from Iran, in the event of Tehran squeezing supply those nations that do import Iranian oil would have to hunt elsewhere for it. In the end, it affects everyone.

As Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad swaggers around the world, endorsing dangerous ideologies, flippantly throwing around offensive remarks that he remains arrogantly unapologetic for, many wonder if this politician isn’t slightly loco—if there aren’t some screws lose in his mind. What else would give him the gall to push around some of the most powerful nations and groups of nations in the world? We recently wrote about an unseen force influencing this man’s mind.

But is he crazy, or canny? The other factor empowering this man is that he knows his nation plays a central role in the global supply of oil.

An article from the Guardian in Britain last week amplifies this point: “[Iranian Oil Minister] Danesh-Jafari’s warning added weight to veiled threats by Iran’s president on Saturday. Iran had a ‘cheap means’ of achieving its nuclear ‘rights,’ Mr. Ahmadinejad said, adding: ‘You [the West] need us more than we need you. All of you today need the Iranian nation’” (January 16, emphasis ours).

Iranian oil is part of the sap that fuels and energizes some of the world’s leading nations. Fully cognizant of the resultant massive influence it wields on the world scene, Iran believes it can run the risk of pushing around America and Europe.

Sure, UN sanctions would hurt the Iranian economy, and its national income would decrease substantially if it chose to withhold oil from the market. But Iran knows such measures would hurt America and Europe more. It could potentially devastate their economies. These facts infuse the leaders of Iran with tremendous confidence.

The Iranians are failing to consider all the ramifications of their flippant behavior, however. They are blinded by arrogance and over-confidence. They operate under the assumption that they can push Europe and America around without serious implications. Time is going to prove them wrong.

Europe is heavily dependent on outside sources for their energy. Russia and the Middle East are the two main providers of that energy. In recent weeks, mild crises have occurred in both sources of European energy—Russian natural gas and oil to the east, and Iranian oil to the south.

The lives and well-being of most Europeans depend heavily on Russian natural gas, and oil supplied by opec. Threatening Europe’s supply of energy is the same as threatening the lives of Europeans! President Ahmadinejad is foolish for thinking Europe will roll over and acquiesce to Tehran’s wishes. To push at Europe by threatening its energy supply is naive and highly dangerous.

Facing Russian instability to the east and Iranian arrogance to the south, Europe is going to have to do something to secure the flow of oil and natural gas into its borders. These crises could easily be catalysts for the unification of Europe!

For more than a decade, our editor in chief has foretold of bullying tactics by Iran that would “push” Europe over the edge—inviting a blitzkrieg attack from the Europeans. This is based on a prophecy in Daniel 11 that shows Europe, a resurrection of the old Roman Empire—an outgrowth of Nebuchadnezzar’s Babylon—marching into the Middle East, partially to secure its energy supplies. Read our free booklet The King of the South for more on this.

Europe’s energy issues will play a significant part in bringing Bible prophecy to pass. With the engines of this formidable global power needing fuel, and present sources proving so unpredictable, we can expect that before long Europe will get its act together—and move to secure its energy sources through war.