This thing just keeps coming. They've been saying (officially) since Saturday that it "is likely to weaken within 24 hours" but....... they've been wrong so far - - - shocking!! (note sarcasm)
Heres the latest:
Tropical Storm ZETA Public Advisory
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 030833
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE JAN 03 2006
...ZETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1450
MILES...2335 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH
... 4 KM/HR. A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS HOSTILE OVERNIGHT AND
NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF ZETA
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...23.3 N... 41.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
and ... an "unofficial" discussion from the same site:
Tropical Storm ZETA Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 030833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006
AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL...ZETA IS NOW EXHIBITING OUTFLOW IN EVERY
QUADRANT WHILE IT MAINTAINS CONVECTION WITH TOPS NEAR -70C.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS THE DEVELOPING
OUTFLOW. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5...OR 55
KT...AND AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
2039Z LAST EVENING SUPPORTED WINDS THIS STRONG AS WELL.
CONSEQUENTLY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA.
IF THIS
OCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE
DOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE. NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER
FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. I WON'T GO THAT FAR WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH I EXPECT THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND EVEN THE GFDL WEAKENS ZETA SUBSTANTIALLY BY
DAY 4.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/2. ZETA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID- TO
LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ZETA MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AND HENCE MAY LEAVE ZETA...OR ITS
REMNANTS...BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.3N 41.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 23.3N 41.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.3N 42.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 43.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 44.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 45.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 27.5N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/030833.shtml