ALERT - Nuclear messages

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/...plate=nextpage

Nuclear messages

International radio operators picked up large numbers of coded Air Force communications being sent around the world on June 26 that indicated some type of military activity was about to take place.

A U.S. military official said the radio traffic was monitored from the Air Force Global High Frequency System (GHFS) that some observers regarded as "extraordinary" because of the unprecedented length of messages. They were sent to Air Force commanders at Andrews Air Force Base; Wideawake Airfield on Ascension Island; Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska; Andersen Air Force Base, Guam; Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii; Lajes Field in the Azores; Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska; Salinas Air Base, Puerto Rico; Thule Air Base, Greenland; and Yokota Air Base, Japan. All are sites of GHFS ground stations.

The messages appeared to be emergency action messages, coded communications sent by the Joint Chiefs of Staff to U.S. Air Force strategic nuclear forces.

The messages sent June 26 included 174 characters, much longer than normal 30-character messages, and amateur radio monitors say they have not seen the size of this message since the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

Air Force Maj. Tom Knowles, a U.S. Strategic Command spokesman, said there were no large-scale exercises going on that would account for what were likely "routine" messages.

"We routinely exercise that capability to make sure of the readiness of our forces," he said.

A retired Air Force general said the strategic nuclear forces also dispatch command action messages that are part of a nuclear command system that requires force commanders to respond within two minutes.

c Bill Gertz covers the Pentagon. He can be reached at 202/636-3274 or at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
............................................benny

Jul. 6, 2007 15:35

Second strike

By LARRY DERFNER
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

If the US or Israel bombs Iran's nuclear facilities, can Iran strike back at Israel with weapons of mass destruction? This is obviously a vital question to answer before deciding whether to use the "military option." Unfortunately, there is no one conclusive answer.

Yiftah Shapir, an expert on missile warfare at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Strategic Studies (formerly the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies), a leading strategic think tank, says Iran might well be able to retaliate with chemical weapons - meaning poison gas or liquid loaded onto missiles.

However, he continues, chemically-armed missiles aren't much more destructive than conventionally-armed ones, so the damage would be comparable to the surprisingly little harm caused by Iraqi Scuds in the 1991 Gulf War. As for the worst-case scenario - an Iranian retaliation with biological weapons, such as bubonic plague or anthrax, or nerve gas - it's highly unlikely that Iran has or will have the ability to successfully fire missiles with such warheads, Shapir says.

Ephraim Kam, an expert on Iran at the same institute, doesn't think Iran can retaliate against Israel with either chemical or biological weapons - for now. However, he thinks it could have the ability to do so in another three or four years.

For yet a third opinion, Dany Shoham, an expert on chemical and biological weapons at Bar-Ilan University's BESA Center, another leading strategic think tank, says Iran "in all likelihood" now has the capability to launch missiles armed with either chemical or biological warheads. To neutralize that threat, the US or Israel would have to first take out Iran's biological warheads or missile launchers before hitting its nuclear facilities. Failing that, Israel's Arrow or Patriot anti-missile batteries would have to knock out Iran's missiles en route.

But if Iran decided to strike back at Israel with its worst weapons - missiles armed with plague, anthrax, nerve gas or other catastrophic substances - and Israel failed to wipe them out on the ground or in the air, the effect of even one of those missiles landing, says Shoham, would be "bad." Asked what he means by "bad," he declines to elaborate, saying, "I don't want to terrify the readers."

THE LACK OF consensus on Iran's strategic profile goes beyond the question of what sort of WMD it has or doesn't have. Among experts, there are several points of contention on the sorts of issues that need to be understood before Israel or the US reaches a decision on their most worrisome political dilemma - what to do about Iran and its nuclear weapons program.

A lot has been written and said about the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran and about the possibility of bombing its nuclear facilities out of existence. Much less, however, has been written and said about the dangers of such a preemptive strike. However, this is starting to change.

On the eve of his trip to the US to meet with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the beginning of June, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former chief of General Staff and defense minister, gave an interview to Yediot Aharonot in which he warned of the possible "destructive consequences" of a US attack on Iran. "An American attack, Mofaz tells close associates, is liable to set the entire Middle East ablaze and cause incalculable damage to Israel's population, and even to European countries," Yediot said.

In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Mofaz warned: "The potential for a regional escalation as a result of [a preemptive] attack is great. Iran sees Israel as a target and has ballistic missiles that can reach every European capital. If it responds, then Hizbullah will respond and maybe Syria, and we don't even know how Hamas will respond." (At the same time, though, Mofaz did not rule out the military option against Iran's nuclear facilities.)


This month, The New York Times reported that the weight of opinion influencing US President George W. Bush now leans against a preemptive strike in the event that diplomacy fails, because the risks are seen as prohibitive. This is the stance taken by the State Department and the Pentagon, the Times reported, while only Vice President Dick Cheney, among Bush's closest circle, still favors a last-option attack on Iran's facilities - and his influence is on the wane.

There is an endless array of questions that have to be asked and judgments that have to be made before a decision is taken on whether to launch a preemptive attack on Iran. This article is concerned only with the question of the possible cost in human lives of such an attack. It breaks this question down into four parts, taken chronologically from the point of impact of the preemptive strike: 1) How many Iranian civilians would die or be wounded? 2) What weapons does Iran have for a retaliatory strike against Israel? 3) How would Iran decide to respond, and how damaging could it be to Israelis? 4) How effective would Israel's protective measures - the Arrow and Patriot anti-missile batteries, home security rooms and gas masks - prove against such an attack?

Not only do experts disagree on the answers to some of these questions, their answers often are hedged with uncertainty because there are so many unknowns. For example, Iran's decision on which weapons to use in retaliation might depend on the extent of civilian casualties it suffered in the preemptive attack.

The views expressed by Shapir, Kam and Shoham (other strategic analysts declined to be interviewed) make it clear that the question of what to do about Iran cannot be answered strictly "from the gut." It is too complex for either a Patton or Gandhi approach. When the moment of decision finally arrives, the possible human cost of a preemptive strike will have to be weighed against the possible human cost of a nuclear-armed Iran. Again, because so much attention has been given to the latter issue, this article deals only with the former one.

IRANIAN CASUALTIES

Only Shoham would offer an estimate of Iranian civilian casualties in a preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities: "From dozens to thousands," he says, depending on how much radioactive leakage was caused.

Iran has a population of 70 million, and several of its major nuclear facilities are located in or near major cities. The installations are heavily protected, with some of them underground and covered by dozens of meters of concrete, while others are in unknown sites. It is considered impossible to wipe out all of the facilities, but it may be possible to cripple a number of critical sites and set back Iran's nuclear ambitions by some years. Kam says at least three or four facilities would need to be hit to do an effective job, while Shoham puts the maximum number of necessary targets at 15.

Such a mission would require an onslaught of bombs and missiles. The Sunday Times has reported that the IAF is training to drop bunker-busting "mini-nukes" on Iran's installations because they are so heavily fortified. The German magazine Focus has quoted Prime Minister Ehud Olmert saying it would require "10 days and 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles," a statement he has denied making.

Shoham says the number of civilian casualties would depend on whether the bombed-out facilities were radioactive and how much radiation resulted. Asked if radiation were a likely consequence of a preemptive attack, he replies, "The answer is more likely yes than no." He adds that as time passes, the likelihood of radiation, and the amount that would be released, goes up. "Without radiation, there would be dozens of dead and injured," he says, noting that the missiles can be targeted "very precisely." But he adds: "If there is a lot of radioactive leakage, the number of casualties could reach into the thousands, at the maximum."



IRANIAN CAPABILITY

Iran has missiles - the Shihab-3 - with more than enough range to hit Israel. However, according to the three experts interviewed, it doesn't have that many, only "dozens" or "several dozen" or "about 50" of them, at least for now.

There is no question that Iran has chemical and biological agents that can cause "mass destruction." However, chemical agents present a much lower threat than biological weapons. The worst chemical attack in history took place over a few days in 1988, when Saddam Hussein launched a poison gas attack on the Iraqi Kurdish town of Halabja, which was pro-Iranian in the Iran-Iraq war. As many as 5,000 people died or suffered terrible injuries. Yet Shapir says a heavy attack with conventional missiles on a village such as Halabja would likely have caused just as many casualties as the poison gas. "The Red Army, for instance, never considered chemical weapons to be any more damaging than conventional weapons," he adds.

But biological weapons, which carry live viruses, are a different story. While they have been used a few times on a very small scale - most recently in the post-9/11 anthrax letters to East Coast news media and politicians that killed five people - they have never been loaded on a missile or otherwise aimed at a large population. Rudolph Giuliani's stated fear - that someone would climb to the top of the Empire State Building and sprinkle biological agents into the air - hasn't materialized. Such an act, or an attack on a major city with a missile with a warhead carrying anthrax, plague, VX or another biological agent, could - if the bomb exploded "successfully" - kill millions.

The first question, then, is whether Iran has the capability of fashioning its biological agents into a warhead that can be attached to a Shihab-3 missile. Shoham is convinced it now has that capability. Kam thinks it doesn't, but may in three to four years. Shapir pretty much rules out the possibility of this ever happening, arguing that biological weapons are too much of a question mark to seriously interest military planners in Iran or anywhere else.

But supposing that Iran could fire a biologically-armed missile at Israel, the second question is whether it would do its intended damage on impact. Shapir says that since such a missile has never been fired, it's impossible to say. "A biological weapon is made up of living material - you don't know if it would survive on a [superheated] missile. If it did survive and explode on impact, you don't know how far it might spread - whether it might eventually come back at the user's own country as well. Generals don't like to use weapons they can't control," he says.

IRANIAN RETALIATION

Since Shapir discounts the possibility of a biological counterstrike and considers the remainder of Iran's arsenal to be no more threatening than Saddam's Scuds, he is not overly worried by Shihab-3 missiles. "I think the bigger threat is from terror attacks. They'll blow up Israeli embassies all over the world; they'll blow up Jewish targets all over the world. They've already shown they can do it. We can expect a lot of Argentinas," he says, referring to the 1994 bombing of a Buenos Aires Jewish community center that killed 85 people, in which Iran and Hizbullah were implicated.

Kam says Iran's response would be greater than the Iraqi Scuds, but still "not very dramatic, not enough to decide the battle." He is figuring on Iran's use of conventional ballistic missiles with large warheads, "so there might be high casualties." Otherwise, he basically takes the same view as Shapir, forecasting attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, which are harder to protect.

So in both Shapir's and Kam's view, Iran will simply hit back as hard as it can with conventional missiles and proxy terror, which is all it has for now. For Shoham, however, the question of retaliation is extremely iffy because in his view, Iran has the capability of firing chemical or biological weapons right now, so it has a much broader range of responses to choose from - and much greater potential consequences to consider.

If Iran retaliates with WMD against Israel, it is knowingly putting its own survival in grave, immediate danger because of America's far superior WMD arsenal, which includes nuclear weapons. Yet Shoham holds that not only is such a move a possibility, it is an "appreciably" greater possibility than the one that preoccupies so many Israelis - that Iran, after it developed nuclear weapons, would initiate a nuclear attack on Israel even at the cost of its own survival. He reasons that Iran would be much more liable to choose mutually assured destruction after being attacked by Israel or the US than before.

Shoham divides Iran's possible responses into "maximal" and "submaximal," with submaximal probably meaning Iranian and Syrian ballistic missile attacks combined with Hizbullah and Hamas terror attacks. "The impact on Israel from this would certainly not be negligible," he says.

As for the maximal response - firing chemical and biological missiles - Shoham says, "If you refer only to the pronouncements of [President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad, then it's clear Iran will decide to retaliate at the maximal level, but he's not the only decision-maker." The likelihood, he says, is that an Iranian counterattack would be proportional to the destructiveness of the US and/or Israeli strike.

ISRAELI DEFENSES

The only experience Israel has with protective measures against missiles came in the 1991 Gulf War when it fired the computerized, supposedly spot-on Patriots at Saddam's 39 incoming Scuds. Unfortunately, very few of the Scuds were destroyed. In a 1992 congressional investigation into the effectiveness of the Patriots against the Scuds, MIT Prof. Theodore Postol testified that postwar studies "indicate that the Patriot's intercept rate could [have been] much lower than 10 percent, possibly even zero." But that was 16 years ago; presumably the Patriots have been improved since.

The front line of Israel's missile defense is now the Arrow system, which has been tested extensively but never used in battle. "Those responsible for the Arrow think it could work," says Kam. He and Shapir agree that the more Shihab-3 missiles the Iranians fire in a single volley, the harder it would be for the Arrow to take them out. "If the Iranians fire one a day, the Arrow could intercept all of them. If they fire their missiles all at once, some could get through," says Shapir, and Kam agrees.

The usefulness of Israelis' personal defensive measures - gas masks and sealed security rooms - has never been tested against an actual WMD attack because there has never been one here. Over the years, there have been a litany of problems with the gas masks, Shoham notes, while adding that these problems are solvable. Assuming the gas masks were in perfect working order and distributed to all Israelis in time, they could, theoretically, defend against a poison gas attack.

However, many biological agents such as anthrax and VX enter through the skin, so in such cases gas masks would be of no use. A privately-purchased protective suit could be effective, but outfitting all 7 million Israelis is not in the cards. And if anthrax, bubonic plague, botulism, nerve agents or the like were loosed among Israel's population, it's highly speculative whether, or for how long, people could survive wearing gas masks or even protective suits inside their sealed rooms.



BUT THE RISKS of preemption are only some of the issues that US and Israeli leaders are going to have to address if Iran does not abandon its nuclear project. I asked the three experts whether, when taking everything into account, they supported or opposed a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities as a last resort, if diplomacy should fail. I got three different answers.

Shoham leans toward the military option. In his view, the danger from a nuclear Iran is "unbearable." He explains that a nuclear Iran would raise the tension in the Middle East and the West so high that it would set off a chain reaction of fear and aggression such that a nuclear war would become likely. Better, he says, to take the risks involved in preemption.

But Shoham reiterates that the consequences of a possible Iranian chemical or biological attack on Israel and/or American targets in the Gulf are so extraordinarily grave that they must be neutralized before a preemptive strike can be launched. Neutralizing the risk, he says, means taking out Iran's missile launchers or biological weapons, which means finding them, which means getting extremely good intelligence. It also means having dependable back-up protection, which means perfecting the Arrow. It's a huge challenge, but Shoham thinks it can be done, and since the threat of a nuclear Iran is, in his view, "unbearable," it must be done.

Shapir, however, leans against the military option. He says he's "very skeptical" about the possibility of destroying Iran's nuclear potential militarily, adding that even if a preemptive strike were successful, it wouldn't end the threat. Iran would step up its nuclear program and its reconstructed facilities would have to be bombed again and again.

Because Iran has such a strong incentive to develop nuclear weapons, Shapir assumes it will do so. Diplomacy and sanctions are likely to fail, he thinks, and then Israel and the West will have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran. The good news is that living with a nuclear Iran is not only possible, he believes, but inevitable.

"The chance that Iran will launch a nuclear first strike is low," Shapir says, arguing that it is deterred by American nuclear might. Based on the 62-year history of the nuclear age, what will probably happen, he says, is that a "dialogue" will develop between Iran and its enemies - as it did between the US and the Soviet Union, and as it recently did between arch-enemies India and Pakistan. "Strategic logic is stronger than any ideology," he maintains.

Kam says there are too many unknowns for him to take a blanket position for or against a preemptive strike, explaining that it depends on the intelligence available at the moment of decision, which will only arrive if and when it becomes clear that diplomatic measures have failed. Since he believes Iran is still three or four years away from having the capability of retaliating against Israel with WMD-armed missiles, the risk to the home front is less critical to Kam than the risk that a preemptive attack would fail. And the risk of failure is higher, he says, if Israel does the job than if the US does it.

If the US were to pass on the military option, says Kam, Israel could only take on such an operation "if we have quite accurate intelligence on what sort of damage we could do to Iran's underground nuclear sites. If a preemptive attack could push their nuclear program back several years, that would be one thing. If an attack could only push it back one year, I'm not sure it would be worthwhile to take the risk."


So there we have it. On the supreme strategic dilemma of our time - whether to bomb Iran's nukes or not - the expert view is: Yes, no, I don't know. On the narrower, but still fateful question of how Iran would react to such a bombing, there is also ambiguity.

In making a decision on whether to choose the military option, a lesson may be drawn from the American decision to launch the war in Iraq. Instead of weighing the risks of invasion alongside those of leaving Saddam in power, the Bush administration concentrated almost solely on the latter - to bitter result. Iran now presents an even more dangerous dilemma; this time around, both of the risks - the risk of Iranian nuclear arms andthe risk of preempting them - have to be faced, then weighed in the balance before decision time arrives.
..............................................benny

ALERT-ALERT-ALERT-ALERT-ALERT-ALERT-ALERT.......................................................................................................................................July 7, 2007
War And Peace In The Middle East
Perspective by Jack Kelley

"If you have come to me in peace, to help me, I am ready to have you unite with me. But if you have come to betray me to my enemies when my hands are free from violence, may the God of our fathers see it and judge you." (1 Chron. 12:17)

They dress the wound of my people as though it were not serious. 'Peace, peace,' they say, when there is no peace. (Jeremiah 6:14)

In a study of contrasts, two major coming events were announced this week that demonstrate the volatility of the Middle East these days.

The first was a report I received stating that a meeting between Quartet (US, UN, EU, and Russia), Palestinian Authority, and Israeli leaders will take place in Egypt in mid-July. The meeting was announced by the EU's Javier Solana, and will feature Tony Blair in his first big assignment as the Quartet's Middle East envoy.

According to a report in the The Daily Star Egypt these countries are very close to finalizing a peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinians. It would feature a two-state solution similar to the one Yassir Arafat was said to have been offered at the 2000 Camp David meeting by then Israeli PM Ehud Barak and then US Pres. Bill Clinton. (Although it was practically everything he had demanded, Arafat turned it down and went home to begin the 2000 Intifada.)

Apparently ‘moderate’ Palestinians are now ready to sign such a peace treaty with Israel. “It is looking positive in the West Bank,” the report says, where Israel has returned tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority and the EU has resumed relations with the PA. Palestinian President Abbas also enjoys the support of the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Abbas is actually stronger than before as he and his Fatah party no longer need approval from Hamas, as was the case under their unity government. If this plan succeeds, Hamas will be relegated to the status of a terrorist organization in control of an isolated Gaza Strip, while the Palestinian State would occupy a substantially enlarged area of the West Bank. Hamas' recent success in gaining the release of BBC reporter Alan Johnston was an attempt to counter this marginalization and get back into the mainstream.

Some are saying that this meeting in Egypt could actually result in peace between Israel and the Palestinians before the end of July. If it really does, and if the treaty's provisions are adhered to, it could begin the period of peace that leads us to the Battle of Ezekiel 38. Think of the possibilities. The security fence could come down, to be replaced by an international peace keeping force that gives Israel a false sense of security in a land of unwalled villages. The peace keeping force could even include Russians, giving them an excuse to have a contingent of troops in the Middle East. This one bears watching.

The highways are deserted, no travelers are on the roads. The treaty is broken, its witnesses are despised, no one is respected. The land mourns and wastes away, Lebanon is ashamed and withers (Isaiah 33:8-9)

News of the other event arrived in my email on Friday July 6. According to Arab and Iranian sources the crisis in Lebanon could erupt into violence by mid-July. That's when the Hizballah backed Lebanese opposition has threatened to set up a second government to challenge the pro-west al-Siniora regime's right to govern. Hizballah could even turn its weapons on Lebanese targets in Beruit in an effort to unseat the al-Siniora government.

While various political reasons are given as justification for the crisis, in truth it's being created by Syria in an effort to stage a coup in Lebanon and take over the government. In recognition of the potential for violence, Syria has ordered all of its citizens living in Lebanon to return home by July 15. The establishment of a rival government could literally split Lebanon in half with the south and east following the opposition while the north and west remain loyal to the current government. (The southern part of Lebanon shares a border with Israel and the eastern portion lies next to Syria.)

Certain of the outcome, the Syrian army is already building fortified positions and digging trenches in eastern Lebanon, and Hizballah is moving arms and equipment into the south in its most flagrant violation yet of the UN resolution. Their intention is to create a military zone in preparation for war with Israel.

The opposition believes that the Lebanese army will remain neutral in this coup attempt, and the UN troops, stationed there to prevent another war with Israel, will realize their safety cannot be assured and depart.Syria has also opened a border crossing with Israel that's been closed for 40 years. It's in the Golan and its purpose is to allow Syrian terrorists into Israel. These terrorists call themselves resistance fighters whose goal is to liberate the Golan. They'll be following a strategy similar to that which the Palestinians have used against Israel in the south, with suicide bombings and other attacks against civilian and military targets. They've been training in Syria over the past year and are now ready to go on the offense.

Observers believe that this is another attempt to lure Israel into a confrontation with Syria and its client Hizballah. It seems like new experts come forward with predictions for a summer war between Israel and Syria almost every day. The latest is Dennis Ross, the former senior American Middle East peace negotiator.

If Syria's coup attempt in Lebanon is allowed to mature, the odds are that the war everyone's predicting will in fact take place. And as incredible as this sounds, Syria is arming missiles with chemical warheads for use against Israel, believing that if they launch them, Israel will flatten Damascus in retaliation. Accordingly they're moving the country's archives out of Damascus to preserve their records against such an eventuality. It's like they've read Isaiah 17 and accepted the outcome as a reasonable price to pay.

We'll know in a week or two whether either or both of these events will take place as announced. If it's not God's timing something will happen at the last minute to stop them. But if they are at the top of His agenda, then by the end of July, it's quite possible that the "birth pangs" we're experiencing will have taken a big leap in both frequency and intensity, meaning that our "delivery" may be coming sooner than we think.

If you still have one foot in the Kingdom and the other in the World, it's time to take the final step and get serious about preparing for your next life. This one may be about over. You can almost hear the footsteps of the Messiah. 07-07-07

......................................benny

Jul. 8, 2007 10:58 | Updated Jul. 8, 2007 14:38
Report: Iran general gives nuclear info
By JPOST.COM STAFF
Print Subscribe
E-mail Toolbar


Talkbacks for this article: 1

Ali-Reza Asghari, the Iranian general who went missing in Turkey nearly half a year ago, is currently being held in a secure US intelligence facility, it was reported on Sunday.

During his interrogation, Asghari gave over information on the running of the Iranian government and on the country's nuclear program, Yediot Aharonot reported.

Since Asghari's disappearance while on vacation in Istanbul in February, reports have circulated that the missing general had defected to a Western country, most likely the US. However, there has as yet been no confirmation of these reports.

According to Sunday's report, CIA agents contacted Asghari, who met them in Istanbul. Asghari even managed to get some of his family out of Iran and bring them with him to the US.

Asghari has since revealed new and relevant information about Iran's nuclear progress, saying that in addition to reactors and uranium enrichment facility centrifuges being built in the country, Iran has also developed the technology to enrich uranium with lasers.

Laser enrichment is a relatively old technique, but Iran has evidently added chemical enhancements that make the technology more advanced, the report said.

Asghari apparently acquired his knowledge during his time as a senior officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who were often responsible for guarding the country's nuclear facilities. He was also a member of the Iranian security council.

If true, Asghari's information would lend credence to Western concerns regarding the increasing danger of Iran's nuclear program.
..................................benny

Lebanon 'to erupt in 1 week'

Syria calls on citizens to evacuate Lebanon, reports say; Expert: Civil war possible
Yaakov Lappin

Syria has called on its citizens to leave Lebanon ahead of an expected "eruption" in that country, Arab and Iranian press reports have said.



The media reports were translated and made available by MEMRI in a special dispatch on Sunday.



"In the past few days, Arab and Iranian media reports have pointed to the possibility that Lebanon's current political crisis may become a violent conflict after July 15, 2007," the MEMRI dispatch said.



July 15 comes one day before a special UN Security Council meeting which is expected to discuss the possibility of stationing international experts on the Syria-Lebanon border, in order monitor the ongoing illegal cross border arms traffic to Hizbullah, thought to be originating from Iran and Syria.



The UN Security Council is also expected to meet next week to discuss a key report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a development which may bode badly for Syria.



"On July 5, 2007, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported that Syrian authorities had instructed all Syrian citizens residing in Lebanon to return to their country by July 15, 2007. The next day, the Israeli Arab daily Al-Sinara similarly reported, on the authority of a Lebanese source close to Damascus, that Syria was planning to remove its citizens from Lebanon. Also on July 5, the Lebanese daily Al-Liwa reported rumors that Syrian workers were leaving Lebanon at the request of the Syrian authorities. In addition, the Syrian government daily Al-Thawra reported that Syrian universities would accept Syrian students who were leaving Lebanon due to the instability there," MEMRI said in its report.



Within Lebanon itself, the Hizbullah-led opposition threatened to establish a "second government" through "historical steps" in mid July, according to senior Hizbullah officials quoted in the Lebanese media, MEMRI added.



'Civil war possibility'

A violent clash next week in Lebanon is a real possibility, but would not be aimed at Israel, General (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former senior officer in the IDF's Military Intelligence Directorate, told Ynetnews. He added, however, that such an internal conflict could "deteriorate" to the point where Israel is targeted by rocket fire.



"This is a warning and a threat, directed not towards not us, but towards the Lebanese government, and against activities by the UN, the US, and the Europeans in Lebanon," Amidror said. "Can this deteriorate to the point of firing on Israel? It doesn't look like it now, but it can get there," he said.



"This signals distress more than power," Amidror said. "If they (Iran, Syria and Hizbullah) were confident, they wouldn't go for such extreme maneuver that would expose them to the fury of Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon. Few in Lebanon want Nasrallah to take power. Shiites are the largest sect, but they make up 40 percent of the population. There are 60 percent who don't like the idea of a Shiite takeover at all," Amidror explained. He added that tensions could erupt into a full scale civil war in Lebanon, with Shiites on one side and Sunnis, Christians, and Druze on the other. "Civil war occurred in Lebanon in the past, there is no reason to think it can't happen again," he warned.



Amidror added that Shiites were determined to take power in Lebanon out of an ideological motivation, and a wish to mimic events in Iraq.



"What's happening in Lebanon is part of a wider Middle Eastern conflict in which Shiites are trying to push Sunnis out of power. This is part of a conflict against Israel in a wider context, but it is primarily a Shiite-Sunni struggle. This is more proof that Israel is not the source of strife in the Middle East, but rather it is the Sunni-Shiite conflict," he added.
..................................................benny

July 8, 2007, 12:11 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile cites Western, Saudi and Lebanese intelligence as sighting hectic preparations by Iran, Syria and the Hizballah to foment major trouble in Lebanon up to and after mid-July. They intend the eruption to throw off track the July 16 UN Security Council session called to castigate their non-implementation of its Resolution 1701, especially their defiance of the clauses banning the continued arms smuggling to Hizballah from Iran and Syria.

Our Washington sources report that ahead of the session, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appealed to a number of European and Asian governments for contingents to bolster the UN force patrolling South Lebanon. None refused outright, only explaining they were short of military manpower. This would also apply to the United States.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources expect the ructions already gripping Lebanon to escalate from mid-July and climax in the first week of September, when the pro-Syrian president Emil Lahoud ends his tenure. Damascus, Tehran and Hizballah are aiming to bring down the pro-Western Fouad Siniora’s government in Beirut or at least shrink its jurisdiction to a number of neighborhoods in the capital similar to Nouri al Maliki’s administration in Baghdad.

Word has reached Riyadh from Damascus indicating that president Bashar Assad means to use the showdown in Lebanon to ignite war clashes in all of Lebanon and against Israel on two fronts, the Golan and the Gaza Strip.

www.debka.com
............................................benny

Considering some of the media reports that I've seen recently regarding IDF ground forces readiness, and issues in their air force as well, and assuming that they are in fact correct and not disinformation, if this does jump off at a level starting as high as last summer and escalating upwards, I am seriously concerned that this next round may well not remain "conventional" very long.

The artillery rockets that Hezbollah, and for that matter Syria, have can easily carry chemical munitions. At the same time, WP and other chemical agents would be an option in dealing with the likely strengthened bunker complexes that Hezbollah has by now put into place in Lebanon.
.........................................................benny

Saturday, July 7, 2007 7:34 p.m. EDT

Ross: Risk of War Between Israel and Syria

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2...453.shtml?s=ic

A former senior American Middle East peace negotiator said he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Israel and Syria this summer, according to a report in ynetnews.com.


Dennis Ross told ynetnews that "nobody has made any decision (about going to war), but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war."

"Syria has rearmed Hizbullah to the teeth – there should be a price to pay for that," the ex-State Department official said.


Ross also noted that the Bush administration had failed to implement its own Syria Accountability Act, adding that the U.S. and Europe should aim to "squeeze the Syrian economy" and use a policy of "sticks before carrots" in their dealings with Damascus.

Ross, the author of the recently published "Statecraft: and How to Restore America's Standing in the World", also said that the West needs to ramp up the sanctions against Iran to stop its nuclear program.


"We have slow-motion diplomacy matched against their fast-paced nuclear development," he said, noting that Europe was not applying enough economic pressure "to get the attention of the Iranian leadership."


While he doubted that economic sanctions would deter Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he said others in the Iranian leadership would take notice and work towards changing the country's policy.
.........................................benny

Ahmadinejad's Syria visit on agenda


05:06:03 È.Ù
http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_en.asp?news_id=240326

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Sayed Mohammad-Ali Hosseini said on Sunday an upcoming visit to Syria of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is on the agenda.

He told reporters that the date of the visit will be announced later.

Responding to a question on Iran's efforts to help settle ongoing developments in Palestine, he said, "Consultations are underway citing Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki two phone conversations with his Malaysian counterpart, as the current president of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the OIC secretary-general Saturday night."

Asked about the second round of talks between Tehran and Washington on Iraq security, he stated the first round of talks were held upon the American officials formal request and a call by Iraqi statesmen.

The first round of Iran-America talks on Iraq was held on May 28 in Baghdad at ambassadorial level.

Iran's Ambassador to Iraq Hassan Kazemi-Qomi represented Iran and Ryan Crocker, the American Envoy to Baghdad.

Based on an agreement reached at the first round of talks, the Iraqi officials would invite Tehran and Washington to hold the second round of talks.

"The Iraqi government has made an invitation for the second round of talks. We will consider it, if the American officials announces its stance in this regard," the spokesman added.

He made it clear that both the America approach and performance have not been amended yet. Hosseini said allegations made by the White House on Iran's interference in Iraq's domestic affairs were not new, adding, "These allegations have become a cliche."

...........................................benny

'Mideast war this summer'
Syrian official threatens 'resistance' by September, warns Damascus preparing for large-scale conflict
Posted: July 8, 2007
3:32 p.m. Eastern


By Aaron Klein

GOLAN HEIGHTS – If Israel doesn't vacate the strategic Golan Heights before September, Syrian guerillas will immediately launch "resistance operations" against the Golan's Jewish communities, a top official from Syrian President Bashar Assad's Baath party told WND.

The Baath official, who spoke on condition his name be withheld, said Damascus is preparing for anticipated Israeli retaliation following Syrian guerilla attacks and for a larger war with the Jewish state in August or September. He said in the opening salvo of any conflict, Syria has the capabilities of firing "hundreds" of missiles at Tel Aviv.

"Syria passed repeated messages to the U.S. that we demand the return of the Golan either through negotiations or through war. If the Golan is not in our hands by August or September, we will be poised to launch resistance, including raids and attacks against Jewish positions (in the Golan Heights)," the Baath official said.

The Golan Heights is strategic mountainous territory looking down on Israeli population centers captured by Israel after Syria twice used the territory to attack the Jewish state.

The Baath official said a new purported guerilla group called the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights has been training and is ready to attacks against Jewish communities in the Golan in August or September.

He said Syria is preparing for a war.

"More and more of our units have undergone intensive trainings starting at 6 a.m. and finishing late into the evening. If the need arises, we are ready for a war," said the official.

The official said Syria "learned from the Hezbollah experience last summer and we can have hundreds of missiles hitting Tel Aviv that will overwhelm Israel's anti-missile batteries."

He claimed Syria has "proof" Israel is also readying for a war.

"We hear about special Israeli trainings to take Damascus. We see that Israel is re-establishing bases of the Israeli army in the Golan that are unusual and not needed except for war. We believe the Israeli government has an interest in confronting Syria to rehabilitate its image of losing to Hezbollah," he said.

He also claimed newly installed Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, a former prime minister, "wants to prove he is a military expert."

Israel: Syrian war preparations serious

Israeli security officials confirmed the stepped-up military presence of Syrian troops deployed along the Syrian side of the Golan Heights with strengthened forces after carrying out increased training the last few months. The security officials noted the movement of Syrian Scud missiles near the border with Israel and said Syria recently increased production of rockets and acquired missiles capable of hitting central Israeli population centers.

The Syrian army has improved its fortifications, according to the Israeli security officials, and has received modern, Russian-made anti-tank missiles similar to the missiles that devastated Israeli tanks during the last Lebanon war, causing the highest number of Israeli troop casualties during the 34-days of military confrontations. Syria also received from Russia advanced anti-aircraft missiles.

The security officials said any conflict with Syria could degenerate into a larger war involving Hezbollah along Israel's northern border and Palestinian terror groups launching attacks from Gaza in the south and the West Bank toward the center of Israel.

The officials noted Syria stepped up the pace of weapons, including rockets, being shipped from the Syrian border to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia.

The security officials said the greatest threat Syria poses to the Jewish state are the country's missiles and rockets. They noted Syria recently test-fired two Scud-D surface-to-surface missiles, which have a range of about 250 miles, covering most Israeli territory. The officials said the Syrian missile test was coordinated with Iran and is believed to have been successful. It is not known what type of warhead the missiles had.

In addition to longer-range Scuds, Syria is in possession of shorter-range missiles such as 220 millimeter and 305 millimeter rockets, some of which have been passed on to Hezbollah.

Israel also has information Syria recently acquired and deployed Chinese-made C-802 missiles, which were successfully used against the Israeli navy during Israel's war against Hezbollah last July and August. The missiles were passed to Syria by Iran, Israeli security officials told WND.

Israeli security officials said Syria is indeed preparing for a summer war. But they said there was an argument within the Israeli intelligence community whether the military buildup is for an attack or is meant by Syria to pressure Israel into vacating the Golan Heights. Some officials said Syria estimates the U.S. or Israel will attack Iran, and Syria will be drawn into a larger military confrontation by opening up a front against northern Israel. Also, the officials said, Syria may believe Israel will attack first and its preparations are defensive in nature.

The Israeli army is not taking any chances. The Israel Defense Forces last month reportedly carried out a mock attack on a "Syrian" village during a major exercise in the Negev. The Israeli soldiers besieged and occupied the village, designed to be similar to towns on the Syrian side of the Golan. Similar war exercises were carried out in Israel the past few months, including a mock attack on Damascus.

According to security officials, recent U.S. intelligence estimates also predict a strong possibility of war between Israel and Syria in the coming months.

Dennis Ross, the American Middle East envoy under the Clinton administration, said this weekend in an interview with Ynetnews, a leading Israeli news website, he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Israel and Syria this summer.

"Nobody has made any decision (about going to war), but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war," said Ross.

The reports of war also come amid a flurry of articles in the Arab media the past few days claiming Syria has warned its citizens residing in Lebanon to leave the country ahead of a civil war there. Israeli security officials noted the possibility of a civil war in Lebanon, and said there were strong concerns violence there could be used as an excuse for Hezbollah or Palestinian groups to attack Israel.

Syria formed new terror group?

The Baath official speaking to WND said Syria learned the advantages of using guerilla tactics to achieve political ends from Hezbollah's war against the Jewish state last summer. He said the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan is modeling itself after Hezbollah.

The Baath official's statements follow a series of WND interviews in which Baath officials said a purported new Syrian guerilla organization recently was formed and is ready for attacks if Israel doesn't withdraw from the Golan. According to the officials, the Syrian Committees for the Liberation of the Golan was formed last year.

In a WND interview, one Baath party official said Syria learned from Hezbollah's military campaign against Israel last summer that "fighting" is more effective than peace negotiations with regard to gaining territory."

Hezbollah claims its goal is to liberate the Shebaa Farms, a small, 12-square-mile bloc situated between Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The cease-fire resolution accepted by Israel to end its military campaign in Lebanon last July and August called for negotiations leading to Israel's relinquishing of the Shebaa Farms.

The Baath official told WND Syria's new Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights consists of Syrian volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey and from Palestinian refugee camps near Damascus. He said Syria held registration for volunteers to join the Committees last June.

The official said attacks by the Committees may include the infiltration of Jewish communities in the Golan, rocket attacks against Israeli positions or raids of Golan-based Israeli military installations. He said all attacks would be launched from the Syrian side of the border.

WND first reported last June on the alleged formation of the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan.

One month later, a man identified as the leader of the Committees gave an interview to state-run Iranian television.

In February, a fax sent to news agencies signed by the Committees claimed the group was holding Guy Hever, an Israeli soldier missing since 1991. Hever disappeared in the Golan Heights near the Syrian border.

Israel is taking the claims of formation of the Committees information seriously. Amos Yadlin, head of the IDF's intelligence branch, told the Knesset in October Syria is indeed in the early stages of forming a Hezbollah-like group


http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=56567
..............................................benny

Tunneling Near Iranian Nuclear Site Stirs Worry

By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 9, 2007; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...administration

The sudden flurry of digging seen in recent satellite photos of a mountainside in central Iran might have passed for ordinary road tunneling. But the site is the back yard of Iran's most ambitious and controversial nuclear facility, leading U.S. officials and independent experts to reach another conclusion: It appears to be the start of a major tunnel complex inside the mountain.

The question is, why? Worries have been stoked by the presence nearby of fortified buildings where uranium is being processed. Those structures in turn are now being connected by roads to Iran's nuclear site at Natanz, where the country recently started production of enriched uranium in defiance of international protests.

Analysts say the tunnels apparently under construction near the Natanz uranium enrichment facility would offer protection from an aerial attack. (By Vahid Salemi -- Associated Press)

The IAEA
The latest reports on Iran from the International Atomic Energy Agency.


As a result, photos of the site are being studied by governments, intelligence agencies and nuclear experts, all asking the same question: Is Iran attempting to thwart future military strikes against its nuclear facility by placing key parts of it in underground bunkers?

The construction has raised concerns at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Vienna-based U.N. watchdog that monitors Iran's nuclear program. On Friday, an IAEA spokeswoman confirmed that the agency has broached the subject with Iranian officials. "We have been in contact with the Iranian authorities about this, and we have received clarifications," said Melissa Fleming, the spokeswoman. She declined to elaborate.

Calls to Iran's U.N. mission in Vienna were not returned. IAEA officials plan to press the issue further in a previously scheduled visit to Tehran later this week, according to informed sources.

"The tunnel complex certainly appears to be related to Natanz," said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based nonprofit group that provided copies of the photos to The Washington Post. "We think it is probably for storage of nuclear items."

U.S. officials at several military and intelligence-gathering agencies said they were aware of the construction and were watching it closely, though none would comment publicly or speculate on the intended purpose of the tunnels.

A tunnel complex would reduce options for a preemptive military strike to knock out Iran's nuclear program, according to U.S. officials who closely follow Iran's nuclear activities. It also could further heighten tensions between the Bush administration and the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has said he is committed to pursuing a peaceful use of nuclear power.

In response to suggestions by Vice President Cheney and others that the United States might consider using force to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions, Ahmadinejad has shrouded the program in additional secrecy and threatened to suspend cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.

Iran has been enriching uranium at Natanz on a small scale for more than four years, creating a less-enriched product that can be used for generating electricity. With further enrichment, the uranium could be used in making weapons.

The commercial satellite photos, taken on June 11 by the firm DigitalGlobe, show two new roads leading to a construction site on the side of a mountain closest to the nuclear site's southern boundary. Although tunnel entrances are not directly visible, the photos show rocks and debris in large piles near the dig sites. There are no signs of construction in similar photos taken of the area six months ago.

In a report analyzing the photos, officials of the Institute for Science and International Security, or ISIS, compared the new Natanz construction with a tunnel built by Iran inside a mountain near another key nuclear site. That site, located about 80 miles to the south and known as Esfahan, is home to a major nuclear research center and a factory that converts uranium to a form that can be enriched at Natanz.

Iran began the work at Esfahan quietly in 2004, digging a large, two-entrance mountain tunnel that it later acknowledged was meant for nuclear storage. Iran eventually allowed IAEA inspectors to visit the then-empty tunnel. Having separate underground bunkers near both sites would allow Iranian officials to rapidly evacuate sensitive materials to safe storage if an attack were believed to be imminent, Albright, the ISIS president, said.

The intended use of the Natanz tunnel cannot be ascertained from the photos. But "such a tunnel inside a mountain would offer excellent protection from an aerial attack," said the report by ISIS, which produces technical assessments of nuclear programs. "This new facility would be ideal for safely storing" natural and enriched uranium and the specialized equipment needed to make it, ISIS said.

A less likely possibility, according to the ISIS report, is that Iran might seek to use the tunnels to house centrifuges used in uranium enrichment. Iran's existing centrifuges at Natanz are in heavily fortified buildings built partly underground. Iran has acknowledged plans to expand its uranium enrichment, requiring tens of thousands of fast-spinning centrifuges.

In April, Iran unilaterally withdrew from an international treaty that would have required it to publicly disclose design plans for any new nuclear-related construction. The ISIS report said that Iran nonetheless "should disclose to the [IAEA] any activity in this area related to its efforts at the nearby Natanz site or another nuclear purpose."
.............................................benny

TURKEY HAS MASSED 140,000 TROOPS ON IRAQ BORDER
Mon Jul 09 2007 09:22:44 ET

Turkey has massed 140,000 soldiers on its border with northern Iraq but so far there has been no violations, Iraq's foreign minister said Monday.

Hoshyar Zebari's comments came amid calls by Turkey's military for the government to give it the green light to carry out military operations in northern Iraqi against the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.

"Turkey is building up forces on the border. There are 140,000 soldiers fully armed on the border. We are against any military interference or violation of Iraqi sovereignty," Zebari said during a news conference in Baghdad.

Developing...

.............................................benny ....P.S....The Turks could move into a different direction if you get my drift..........Remember!...And in those days they shall devise an evil plan........This is something to think about,.....But personally, I do not believe that Ezekial 38 will happen just yet. I am expecting that the rapture and/or the prophecy of Isaiah 17;1 will happen first....then, when all the effects dies down....some sort of quick persaudo peace will be agreed upon.....then ezekial 38, and then Daniel 9;27..........Either way,.....We are going to find out very soon.......All these events have been building for a very long time and cannot continue much longer without the dam breaking...something is going to have to give way, very very soon!

I agree it will only take a feather drop to break the camels back on the middle east right now. As the US government puts it a Powder Keg. READY to explode

Jul. 10, 2007 0:47 | Updated Jul. 10, 2007 5:07
Time running out for strike against Iran
By YAAKOV KATZ
Print Subscribe
E-mail Toolbar


Talkbacks for this article: 21

Predicting that sanctions will ultimately fail to stop Teheran's nuclear program, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of Military Intelligence's Research Division, told The Jerusalem Post on Monday that time to launch an effective military strike against Iran's nuclear installations was running out.

According to Kuperwasser, who stepped down from his post last year, Iran is "very close" to the point that it will cross the technological threshold and have the capability to enrich uranium at an industrial level. Once they master the technology, the Iranians will have the ability to manufacture a nuclear device within two to three years, he added.

"The program's vulnerability to a military operation is diminishing as time passes," Kuperwasser said, "and they are very close to the point that they will be able to enrich uranium at an industrial level."

In an article entitled "Halting Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program: Iranian Vulnerabilities and Western Policy Options" published this week by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs - run by former Israeli ambassador to the UN Dr. Dore Gold - Kuperwasser spells out what he believes is the only course of action that will stop Iran's race to nuclear power.

Thanks to technological sophistication, advances in producing raw materials as well as intermediate products and the improvement in protection of the program's components, the Western world is beginning to find it difficult to plan an effective strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, he said.

On Monday, The Washington Post revealed new satellite photos of Iran's enrichment facility at Natanz which showed the digging of a tunnel that analysts said could be used to hide and protect key nuclear components.

Iran, Kuperwasser said, was working on two parallel tracks - one at Natanz to enrich uranium and the plutogenic track being worked on at the Arak heavy water facility.

As long as Russia was not aligned with the United States, Kuperwasser said sanctions would not work on their own to stop Iran.

"For significant sanctions to be effective the world needs to at the same time threaten the use of military force," he said. "Iran needs to be made to understand that if the sanctions won't work, the world is prepared to use military force to stop the nuclear program."

He said Iran was preparing for the possibility of war, but that deep down the Islamic leadership did not believe that either the United States or Israel were in a position of strength that would enable them to launch such a complicated military operation. Iran, he said, was purchasing Russian air defense systems and was fortifying its nuclear facilities and moving key elements to underground bunkers in preparation for the possibility that its assessments were wrong and it would in the end be attacked.

"The Iranians are working around the clock on improving military capabilities and they are also moving centrifuges to underground facilities," he said.

Kuperwasser said that a real threat of military action - backed up by credible threats by world leaders as well as the deployment of a large military force to the region - could have the right effect in deterring Iranian leaders from continuing with their nuclear program.

A credible military threat combined with economic leverage had a chance at preventing the need for a future clash with a nuclear Iran and perhaps could also make it unnecessary to deal today with an Iran that is close to nuclearization, he said.Print Subscribe
E-mail Toolbar


..............................................benny

i have been saying for a yr that i do not think we or Israel will hit iran...if the gog/magog invasion happens before trib, iran must have the nuke to feel bold enough to invade...If iran had no nuke, and Israel does, iran would know if they invade, they face nukes from Israel...but if iran had a few nukes and all the world new it, they could invade Israel and tell Israel, "if you respond with nukes, we will too". just like the 80's between us and russia...think back to red dawn (the movie)...russians couldnt use nukes because we would too and plus they wanted to use the land...i say, iran gets the bomb. we have lost the nerve to stop it and Israels current leaders never had the nerve to start with...

More signs war with Syria is on the way



By Stan Goodenough
July 10, 2007

Tensions crept higher in the Middle East Saturday through Monday, building on the already swirling rumors that another Arab-Israeli war is being set to wrack the region this summer.

Israelis learned Monday that a "top official" in the Ba'ath Party of Syrian President Bashar el-Assad had threatened Syrian fighters would commence "resistance" operations against Jewish communities on the Golan if Israel does not relinquish those heights by September.

Jerusalem Newswire picked up reports immediately following last summer's war between Israel and Lebanon's Hizb'allah that Syria had noted with interest how the Lebanese succeeded in driving Israel out of southern Lebanon, and the subsequent psychological impact they were able to inflict on Israel by simply firing missiles at the country.

Back then a decision was reportedly taken in Damascus to train a force that would imitate Hizb'allah and wage a war of attrition against the Jewish state.

According to World Net Daily (WND) the Ba’ath official, who spoke on condition his name be withheld, said such a force – the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights – has now been trained and is ready to launch attacks against Jewish homes on the Golan.

"Damascus was preparing for anticipated Israeli retaliation following these attacks and for a larger war with the Jewish state in August or September."

Syria has "the capability of firing 'hundreds' of missiles at Tel Aviv," the official warned.

Another source identified the Syrian official as President Bashar el-Assad.

On Saturday the London-based Arabic newspaper al-Hayat reported that Israel was "concerned" that a Syrian decision to remove military checkpoints that had been in place on the road to Kuneitra since 1967 could be a preparation for war.

¬The Jerusalem Post said the al-Hayat report also charged that Israel had barred journalists from covering IDF exercises and preparations on the Golan, and that the Israeli military had blocked access to areas on the heights from which towns and villages were visible.

The reports out of London came a few weeks after Syrian officials confirmed that its state archives had been removed from Damascus for safeguarding in the event of a war.

In another, almost bizarre development which will certainly do nothing to quiet the tensions, Israeli "experts" said Sunday Israel was stealing water from Syria.

"For years," ran the report in Ynetnews, "Israel has been pumping water from springs in the Golan Heights to the shrinking Sea of Galilee, depriving Syria of major water resources.

"Water from some springs exploited by Israel would naturally stream downhill to Syria had it not been to human intervention on the Israeli side of the border," the experts said.

According to the World Net Daily report, Israeli security officials have confirmed the stepped-up presence of Syrian troops along the border with the Golan Heights. Also noted was Syrian Scud missile movement near the border with Israel, and Syria's recently increased production of rockets and acquired missiles capable of hitting central Israeli population centers.

WND said the Syrian army has improved its fortifications and has received modern, Russian-made anti-tank missiles similar to those that devastated Israeli tanks during the last Lebanon war.

Russia has supplied Syria with advanced anti-aircraft missiles.

http://www.jnewswire.com/article/2029
..........................................benny

http://www.sana.org/eng/22/2007/07/10/128300.htm
(fair use applies)


China Supports Syria's right to restore the occupied Golan

Tuesday, July 10, 2007 - 07:55 PM

Beijing, (SANA)-Premier of the Chinese State Council Wen Jiabao on Tuesday underlined his country's support to Syria's right to restore the occupied Syrian Golan.

Jiabao, meeting Syrian Deputy Premier for Economic affairs Abdullah Dardari, expressed China's commitment to boost ties with Syria and develop them in all domains.

"The trade exchange volume between Syria and China reached to more than $ 1.400 billion," the Chinese official said, showing his government's commitment to deal with the issue of commerce surplus and double efforts to see more Syrian goods in the Chinese markets.

"China will study the establishment of financial fund to back the investment projects in Syria," he added, referring to the stability Syria enjoys and the economic growth in the country.

Dardari, for his part, called China to establish different projects in Syria, thanking it for backing the Arab issues and for Syria's right to restore its occupied lands.

....................................benny

The stakes are big and the waterway is small, so communication between the two sides is a must to keep a lid on tensions.
By Borzou Daragahi, Times Staff Writer
9:03 PM PDT, July 10, 2007

— Iran and the United States remain so far apart on so many issues that they refuse to talk about them.

But in the cramped sea routes of the Persian Gulf, U.S. and Iranian warship sailors and fighter pilots speak to each other daily.

They have to. They're practically jostling one another in courteous games of surveillance, counter-surveillance and geopolitical posturing.

"We are operating very close to their territorial waters in a very confined space with a tremendous amount of traffic, be it the small dhows, be it the supertankers going up to the oil platforms," said U.S. Navy Capt. Sterling Gilliam Jr., commander of air operations for this nuclear-powered supercarrier and its associated ships.

"The margin of error is smaller in that the space is more confined. That would be the case even if anyone was your ally, just because of the sheer small size of the Arabian Gulf," Gilliam said, using an alternative name for the body of water.

Even mundane changes of direction require chitchat with Iranian counterparts. When sedate gulf winds fade to a whisper, for example, this 100,000-ton carrier whips up to the 25 knots required to hurl jets into flight from the 1,092-foot flight deck.

But first the vessel alerts nearby forces of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the organization's navy.

"We would do the standard international maritime measures," said Capt. Bradley Johanson, commanding officer of the aircraft carrier.

"We would call them on their radio and say, 'Sir, I just wanted to let you know that we're going to be turning to port and be coming to this course so that we're into the wind in support of our flight operation."

The Iranians respond professionally and courteously, Johanson said: " 'Thank you very much for the information. We will move off to the starboard position. We very much appreciate the heads-up.' "

Nearly half of the U.S. Navy's 277 warships are stationed close to Iran, alongside most of Tehran's estimated 140 naval surface ships and six submarines, according to GlobalSecurity.org. More than five dozen aircraft are aboard the Stennis, along with dozens more aboard the Nimitz, another U.S. aircraft carrier in the gulf.

Multiple roles

Crew members on the Stennis say they are here to provide aircraft for peacekeeping and counterinsurgency missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia.

But few doubt they are also here to send a message to Iran, which the U.S. accuses of pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons program and supporting anti-American militants from Lebanon to Afghanistan.

"My feeling here is we're here to show our resolve, and to protect our friends," said Cmdr. Marcus Hitchcock, the Stennis' executive officer.

A flotilla of nine U.S. warships steamed through the Strait of Hormuz two months after the United Nations Security Council passed the last round of sanctions against Iran for continuing with its uranium enrichment program and Iranians seized 15 British sailors and marines in disputed waters off Iraq.

Positioning two aircraft carrier groups in the gulf gives the United States the capability to operate 24 hours a day and potentially conduct about 180 daily bombing and surveillance operations over Iran.

It also means the United States may be deploying nuclear weapons, believed to be aboard some of the ships in the aircraft carrier groups, within 10 miles of Iran's shores.

Big targets

But the aircraft carriers, each accompanied by four or five other ships, could become big targets for Iran in the event of a war.

"It's going to be very hard to defend U.S. ships against small ships and volleys of missiles in the confines of the Persian Gulf," said Joseph Cirincione, a security analyst at the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank.

"This is not an ideal situation for the Navy."

Tensions between Iran and the U.S. lie barely beneath the surface of the delicate maritime protocol. Both Iran and the U.S. regularly dispatch spy planes to watch each other. A photograph of an Iranian T-12 reconnaissance plane is posted outside the intelligence office of the Stennis. "Image of the day," says the caption.

"We would take a picture of an Iranian navy warship to see if they've made any changes," said Vice Admiral Kevin J. Cosgriff, commander of the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet. "They do it too. We pay attention and want to know where they are. Is their action routine or are they getting ready for an exercise?"

Each country accuses the other of bad behavior. Iran says the U.S. plays a disruptive role in the gulf and destabilizes the region. U.S. officials say the Iranians behave like bullies, sometimes getting on the radio to order Americans to leave what the Iranians claim as territorial waters.

Americans also complain that Iranians don't do enough to clear sea lanes before conducting missile tests in international waters and that their aircraft fly too close to U.S. planes.

"They're overt about it," Cosgriff said. "They're communicating."

Operating an aircraft carrier is a task that requires precision and stamina even in the most spacious waters.

Stumbling into a hot conflict with the Iranians remains a constant concern in the overcrowded gulf, where nearby oil wells glow orange in the steamy night, and wooden dhows, steel-hull freighters and warships navigate the waterway by day.

On the ship's computer maps, a thick black line delineates Iranian coastal waters from the rest of the gulf. Shades of gray mark the waters off Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, allies of the United States. U.S. pilots are told to stay well away from Iranian airspace.

"We do worry about miscalculations," Cosgriff said. "That's one of the reasons we want to be transparent on the radio and be talking to them a lot."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...ck=1&cset=true
.....................................................benny

IDF: War with Syria would be 10 times worse than Hizbullah
By YAAKOV KATZ
Print Subscribe
E-mail Toolbar

Predicting that war with Syria could erupt if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does not begin peace negotiations with Damascus, the latest IDF assessment also states that such a conflict would be "at least 10 times worse" than last summer's conflict with Hizbullah.
Military Intelligence is also identifying and pinpointing targets for the IDF in the event that a strike is launched against Iran's nuclear facilities.
MI recently established a new division to translate intelligence into concrete targets and information that can be used by units in the field. The new division is headed by Brig.-Gen. Nitzan Alon, a former commander of the General Staff's Reconnaissance Unit (Sayeret Matkal.) The Israel Air Force has its own department that is responsible for processing intelligence and identifying targets.
According to IDF assessments, Syria is not interested in an armed confrontation, but has stepped up its preparations for war since last year's Israel-Hizbullah conflict.
Due to the lack of communication between the two countries, the IDF assessment is that a war could erupt sometime in the coming year if a diplomatic resolution is not reached first.
If war breaks out, the IDF believes Syria would fire thousands of long- and short-range missiles at Israeli cities.
The assumption is that a war with Syria would erupt due to a "miscalculation" along the border, in the form of a terrorist attack that escalates into a larger conflict.
Syria has come to believe that the United States will attack Iran this summer, and that as a result, Israel will once more go to war with Hizbullah. If that happens, Syria believes Israel will not confine its operations to Lebanon, but will also strike Syrian targets.
Syria has transferred several hundred medium-range missiles to Hizbullah, The Jerusalem Post has learned, which has completely replenished its weapon supplies, exhausted during last summer's war. The missiles include 220-mm. and 302-mm. Katyusha rockets that have ranges of up to 60 kilometers.
The IDF suspects that Hizbullah may have received more advanced Iranian and Syrian missiles, with the assumption being that any weapon small enough to fit into a standard 12-meter shipping container has been sent to the guerrilla group by the two countries.
Turning to Iran, the assumption is that Teheran will continue to advance with its nuclear program, in defiance of United Nations-imposed sanctions and resolutions.
According to the most pessimistic estimates in the defense establishment, Iran will obtain a nuclear bomb by mid-2009, although the chances of this happening are seen as slim and it is more likely that the Islamic Republic will only succeed in manufacturing a nuclear device in 2010 or 2011.
The IDF believes that within the next six months, Iran will cross the technological threshold, obtaining independent research and development capabilities and mastering the technology needed to enrich uranium.
According to the IDF assessment, a military strike could cause enough damage to dramatically set back Iran's nuclear program.
The Iranian regime is believed to be strong and Israel does not believe that it can currently be toppled.
Concerning Hizbullah, Israel says the IDF killed some 600 gunmen during the war last summer, a tenth of the group's armed men. The guerrilla group is having trouble recruiting new guerrillas into its ranks, according to the IDF.
The growing assumption in the IDF is that Hizbullah is not currently interested in another round of fighting with Israel and that it is rehabilitating its damaged infrastructure. The assumption is that Hizbullah will recover by mid-2008 and might renew attacks against Israel.
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah remains a target for the IDF, although the assumption within the defense establishment is that the guerrilla group would respond harshly if he were killed.............................................benny

Hizbullah official: Military attack on Iran huge mistake

Published: 07.11.07, 11:36 / Israel News
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...424093,00.html

A military attack on Iran would be a huge mistake, according to Hizbullah deputy secretary general, Hussein Moussawi.

“If Iran is attacked, calm will no longer remain in the Middle East, and American soldiers will no longer be secure. Although it’s unlikely that the US will attack Iran, or that Israel with start a war against Lebanon, but we can’t believe the Americans or the Zionists,” Mouassawi told the Iranian news agency IRNA. (Dudi Cohen)
............................................benny

11 Jul 07

Iraqi official says 200 explosive belts captured in truck crossing from Syria
Iraqi security forces have seized 200 explosive belts in a truck that crossed into Iraq from Syria on Wednesday, Interior Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf said.

Turkish PM refuses to rule out Iraq invasion
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, today denied any immediate plans to authorise a military invasion in northern Iraq. But he hinted that once elections have taken place later this month that he would reassess Turkey’s options.

Jews facing “gathering storm,” Canadian MP tells Israel audience
Jews are facing a “gathering storm” with multiple threats from Iran, Hezbollah, al-Qaida, Hamas and international terrorism unmatched since the 1930s, former justice minister Irwin Cotler told a Jerusalem conference on Tuesday.

UN atomic agency gets invitation to send inspectors to North Korea
UN inspectors are now set to travel to North Korea and will be leaving in the "next few days," the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday, after receiving a formal invitation from Pyongyang.

UN nuclear envoy arrives in Iran
The deputy chief of the UN atomic watchdog, Olli Heinonen, arrived here at the head of an International Atomic Energy Agency delegation on Wednesday seeking to shape a plan to resolve outstanding issues over Iran's nuclear program.

US security chief warns of higher risk of attack over summer
"I believe we are entering a period this summer of increased risk," Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune

Iran ready to defuse al-Qaida threat, official says
Iran on Wednesday said the country was ready to defend itself against threats by al-Qaida, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

Iran rejects suspension of enrichment, president says, as IAEA visits Iran
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday that the West should not expect his country to suspend uranium enrichment as a delegation from the U.N. nuclear watchdog arrived here to see if Iran is willing to answer outstanding questions on its program, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

China Supports Syria's right to restore the occupied Golan
Premier of the Chinese State Council Wen Jiabao on Tuesday underlined his country's support to Syria's right to restore the occupied Syrian Golan. Jiabao, meeting Syrian Deputy Premier for Economic affairs Abdullah Dardari, expressed China's commitment to boost ties with Syria and develop them in all domains.

Lebanese army poised to storm Palestinian camp
The Lebanese army is preparing to launch a final assault against al Qaeda-inspired militants holed up at a Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon, political and security sources said on Wednesday.

'Abbas creating military dictatorship'
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has come under heavy criticism from Palestinians - including drafters of the PA Basic Law - who say he is forging a "military dictatorship" in the West Bank by granting military courts broad powers to crack down on civilians.

'War with Syria will be 10 times worse than with Hizbullah'
Predicting that war with Syria could erupt if Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does not begin peace negotiations with Damascus, the latest IDF assessment also states that such a conflict would be "at least 10 times worse" than last summer's conflict with Hizbullah.

Bush says a pullback will occur 'in a while'
Fearful of a Republican rebellion over Iraq that his own aides believe could force him to change course, President George W. Bush said Tuesday that the United States would be able to pull back troops "in a while," but called on Congress to wait until September to debate the future military presence there.

Pakistan troops comb mosque for holdouts
Pakistani troops cornered holdout Islamic militants and combed the warren-like Red Mosque complex for booby traps Wednesday after assaulting the compound and killing its pro-Taliban cleric, the army spokesman said

Euro Hits New High Against U.S. Dollar
The euro shot to an all-time high against the U.S. dollar Tuesday on concerns about the American economy that were fueled by discouraging growth forecasts from key U.S. retailers and homebuilders.

.......................................benny

UN's ElBaradei Asking For More Time For Iran To Develop Nukes - Bill Wilson - http://www.watch.org/

WASH—July 10—KIN-- Egyptian born Muslim Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, is now saying that Iran has slowed down its nuclear development and ElBaradei is calling for Iran's government to give up its nuclear program altogether. The message from ElBaradei is confusing, but typical of the diplomatic drivel that has become the hallmark of the UN handling of thug nations such as Iran, the world's foremost sponsor of terrorism. ElBaradei's positioning is to try to get the West to delay any substantial action against Iran while promoting idle talk about Iran cooperating with the international community by shutting down its nuclear program.

In fact, ElBaradei told reporters he is seeking a "time out" in the confrontation between Iran and the West over Iran's nuclear program. But that is just the very issue. ElBaradei has given Iran nearly four years worth of a "time out" by allowing the nation to hold the Western world at bay through fruitless negotiations while all the while Iran has beefed up its uranium enrichment to levels capable of producing material for a nuclear bomb. Little has changed for ElBaradei since November 23, 2004 when he said of Iran, "I am not ready to jump to the conclusion and say this is a weapons program unless I see a diversion of nuclear material to such a program or I see clear cut proof that this is a weapons program."

Once again, ElBaradei is giving Iran the benefit of the doubt. And now one has to question ElBaradei's alliances. He told reporters that there is a "need to shift from the mode of confrontation to the mode of goodwill and cooperation." But who is cooperating? Russia and China are certainly cooperating with Iran to provide nuclear technology, missile technology and other weapons information that assist Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons. Those who are not cooperating are the United States, Israel and Great Britain, who would like to see Iran shut down its nuclear program as Iran's President continues to threaten Israel with destruction and the United States with demise.

Trusting an Islamic Egyptian to police radical Islamists in a war against Israel and the West is probably not the wisest course of action. Isaiah 31:1 says, "Woe to them that go down to Egypt for help; and stay on horses and trust in chariots, because they are many; and in horsemen because they are very strong; but they look not unto the Holy One of Israel, neither seek the Lord!" In war, deception is key. When the United Nations point man on curbing nuclear weapons continues to ask for more time when the perpetrator is threatening annihilation of an entire people, the world ought to take notice and have some discernment
__________________
Got Jesus? It's hell without Him.
..........................................benny

Hamas’ Gaza army in place

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Printer-friendly version By Stan Goodenough
July 10, 2007

The Allah-enslaved, blood-crazed Hamas "Palestinian" terrorist organization that took over Gaza last month, wresting control from the marginally-less-religious Fatah terrorist movement of Mahmoud Abbas, has wasted no time in consolidating its power in the strip.

Hamas has reportedly also undergone structural changes and is modeling itself on the Lebanese Hizb'allah which last year scored a major victory over the IDF.

According to reports in the Israeli press Monday, Israeli intelligence officials say Hamas has already established its army: a 7,000 to 10,000-strong force that now controls the lives of eight hundred thousand Palestinian Arabs.

Hizb'allah, by comparison, is estimated to have just 1,000 fulltime members and another 6,000 to 10,000 so-called volunteers, according to Mustafa Alani, security director at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre.

Hamas' army is assigning serial numbers to its Kassam rockets and roadside bombs. It is building up its armament supply through the continuous smuggling of weapons from Egypt and has complemented this by the development of "a real military industry which operates inside buildings and private houses."

A senior intelligence officer in the IDF's southern command Monday apprised visiting Italian Prime Minister Roman Prodi of the situation in Gaza and told him Hamas together with other Muslim organizations have fully commandeered Fatah’s headquarters there.

All this is taking place just 44 miles south of Tel Aviv.

It is the result of the Bush-Sharon dream of giving Gaza to the Arabs in order that they could begin to establish their Palestinian state there.

Prodi – whose country, along with the rest of Europe, has for years been trying to coerce the Jews of Israel into surrendering their millennia-old claim to half of their national homeland so that another Arab state can be created there – was reportedly dumbstruck to hear that more than 5,000 Kassam rockets have been fired from Gaza, many hitting the Negev city of Sderot.

During his tour, Ynetnews reported, he asked Sderot mayor Eli Moyal "in disbelief three times, '5000 rockets have hit Sderot and the Gaza perimeter?'"

Prodi reportedly responded that it was "impossible to live like this." And it was "hard [for him] to see the daily suffering of the residents here."

There was no sign of admission, however, that world leaders like himself who pushed Israel into leaving Gaza two years ago were in any way to blame for the "impossible" situation that exists today
.............................................benny

Syria preparing for communications cutoff

Key officials given backup contacts as Damascus mobilizes for war
Posted: July 10, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein
© 2007 WorldNetDaily.com


Syrian President Bashar Assad
JERUSALEM – The Syrian government, preparing for a war with the Jewish state, has given its officials and top contacts alternative phone numbers to key government ministries in case the Damascus phone system is knocked out during an Israeli aerial bombardment, WND has learned.

An official from Syrian President Bashar Assad's Baath party, speaking to WND from Damascus on condition of anonymity, said the Syrian government distributed the alternative phone numbers earlier this month to ensure continued communication in what he said was the "likely" event of war.

He said Syria was worried that in the opening salvo of a possible confrontation with the Jewish state, the Israeli air force would bombard installations in Damascus, including telephone lines.


Yesterday, WND quoted a top Baath official warning if Israel doesn't vacate the strategic Golan Heights by August-September, Syrian guerrillas will immediately launch "resistance operations" against the Golan's Jewish communities.

The Baath official said Damascus is preparing for anticipated Israeli retaliation following Syrian guerrilla attacks and for a larger war with the Jewish state in August or September. He said in the opening salvo of any conflict, Syria has the capabilities of firing "hundreds" of missiles at Tel Aviv.

"Syria passed repeated messages to the U.S. that we demand the return of the Golan either through negotiations or through war. If the Golan is not in our hands by August or September, we will be poised to launch resistance, including raids and attacks against Jewish positions (in the Golan Heights)," the Baath official said.

The Golan Heights is strategic mountainous territory looking down on Israeli population centers captured by Israel after Syria twice used the territory to attack the Jewish state.

The Baath official said a new purported guerrilla group called the Committees for the Liberation of the Golan Heights has been training and is ready to attacks against Jewish communities in the Golan in August or September.

He said Syria is preparing for a war.

"More and more of our units have undergone intensive trainings starting at 6 a.m. and finishing late into the evening. If the need arises, we are ready for a war," said the official.

The official said Syria "learned from the Hezbollah experience last summer and we can have hundreds of missiles hitting Tel Aviv that will overwhelm Israel's anti-missile batteries."

He claimed Syria has "proof" Israel is also readying for a war.

"We hear about special Israeli trainings to take Damascus. We see that Israel is re-establishing bases of the Israeli army in the Golan that are unusual and not needed except for war. We believe the Israeli government has an interest in confronting Syria to rehabilitate its image of losing to Hezbollah," he said.

He also claimed newly installed Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, a former prime minister, "wants to prove he is a military expert."

Israel: Syrian war preparations serious

Israeli security officials confirmed the stepped-up military presence of Syrian troops deployed along the Syrian side of the Golan Heights with strengthened forces after carrying out increased training the past few months. The security officials noted the movement of Syrian Scud missiles near the border with Israel and said Syria recently increased production of rockets and acquired missiles capable of hitting central Israeli population centers.

The Syrian army has improved its fortifications, according to the Israeli security officials, and has received modern, Russian-made anti-tank missiles similar to the missiles that devastated Israeli tanks during the last Lebanon war, causing the highest number of Israeli troop casualties during the 34-days of military confrontations. Syria also received from Russia advanced anti-aircraft missiles.

The security officials said any conflict with Syria could degenerate into a larger war involving Hezbollah along Israel's northern border and Palestinian terror groups launching attacks from Gaza in the south and the West Bank toward the center of Israel.

The officials noted Syria stepped up the pace of weapons, including rockets, being shipped from the Syrian border to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia.

The security officials said the greatest threats Syria poses to the Jewish state are the country's missiles and rockets. They noted Syria recently test-fired two Scud-D surface-to-surface missiles, which have a range of about 250 miles, covering most Israeli territory. The officials said the Syrian missile test was coordinated with Iran and is believed to have been successful. It is not known what type of warhead the missiles had.

In addition to longer-range Scuds, Syria is in possession of shorter-range missiles such as 220 millimeter and 305 millimeter rockets, some of which have been passed on to Hezbollah.

Israel also has information Syria recently acquired and deployed Chinese-made C-802 missiles, which were successfully used against the Israeli navy during Israel's war against Hezbollah one year ago. The missiles were passed to Syria by Iran, Israeli security officials told WND.

Israeli security officials said Syria is indeed preparing for a summer war. But they said there was an argument within the Israeli intelligence community whether the military buildup is for an attack or is meant by Syria to pressure Israel into vacating the Golan Heights. Some officials said Syria estimates the U.S. or Israel will attack Iran, and Syria will be drawn into a larger military confrontation by opening up a front against northern Israel. Also, the officials said, Syria may believe Israel will attack first and its preparations are defensive in nature.

The Israeli army is not taking any chances. The Israel Defense Forces last month reportedly carried out a mock attack on a "Syrian" village during a major exercise in the Negev. The Israeli soldiers besieged and occupied the village, designed to be similar to towns on the Syrian side of the Golan. Similar war exercises were carried out in Israel the past few months, including a mock attack on Damascus.

According to security officials, recent U.S. intelligence estimates also predict a strong possibility of war between Israel and Syria in the coming months.

Dennis Ross, the American Middle East envoy under the Clinton administration, said this weekend in an interview with YnetNews.com, a leading Israeli news website, he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Israel and Syria this summer.

"Nobody has made any decision (about going to war), but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war," said Ross.

The reports of war also come amid a flurry of articles in the Arab media the past few days claiming Syria has warned its citizens residing in Lebanon to leave the country ahead of a civil war there. Israeli security officials noted the possibility of a civil war in Lebanon and said there were strong concerns violence there could be used as an excuse for Hezbollah or Palestinian groups to attack Israel.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=56584
...........................................benny

Resupply of combat reservists to be done by September
By YAAKOV KATZ
Print Subscribe
E-mail Toolbar


While a year has passed since the Second Lebanon War, the IDF is still in the process of transforming its combat units and hopes to complete replenishing emergency supplies for reservists by the end of the summer, senior officers said Wednesday.

Following the war, the IDF received NIS 2 billion in aid from the government to procure brand new equipment for combat reservists. Behind the project is Col. Ilan Peretz, head of the Planning and Organization Department in the IDF's Ground Forces Command.

"We will finish resupplying all of the infantry units by September and will then continue on to the rest of the IDF," Peretz told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday in an interview coinciding with the war's first anniversary. "Reservists are getting equipment that is equal and sometimes even better than compulsory combat soldiers."

The new equipment includes new bulletproof vests, lightweight helmets and new Load Bearing Equipment (LBE) harnesses for carrying ammunition and other supplies. The IDF is also in the process of shortening M-16 rifles and according to Peretz will become one of the first Western militaries to only operate with the short version of the American weapon.

"Today's IDF is a different IDF," Deputy Chief of General Staff Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky said Wednesday. "We made mistakes before the war but since then we have made great achievements."

Peretz said that he was aware the new equipment on its own was not enough to change the outcome of the next war. But he said it could change the way soldiers feel when they were sent to the front lines to fight for their country. By the end of the year, the IDF hopes to have trained 70 percent of its reserve units.

"I don't think that this equipment was what was missing in the last war," he said. "But this will certainly improve the quality and the feeling among the soldiers."

In addition to the changes in equipment, due to difficulty in getting supplies like food and ammunition to units operating inside Lebanon last summer the IDF has decided to assign a non-commissioned career serviceman to each reserve battalion to be responsible for the unit's logistical needs.

The IDF has also ordered hundreds of Trophy active protection anti-missile systems, which it plans to begin installing this summer on its Merkava tanks.

The decision to purchase the systems was made following the war in Lebanon, during which Hizbullah anti-tank missile squads damaged 40 Merkava tanks and killed more than 30 tank crew members.

Developed by the Rafael Armament Development Authority, the Trophy system creates a hemispheric