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benny balerio
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hts.../20070406.aspx

U.S. SSGN Base In the Indian Ocean
April 6, 2007: The U.S. is building a support base, at the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, for the SSGN (an SSBN converted to carry 154 cruise missiles, and a hundred or more SEAL commandos) that has joined the Pacific fleet. SSGNs, like the SSBNs, have two crews, so that the boats can be kept at sea for the maximum amount of time (every 90 days, the SSGN comes into port to change crews). Commandos can also be carried aboard the SSNs, but the SSGN boats have additional facilities for the SEALs to plan, exercise, and train for missions. Few details of what the support base will contain, but it will obviously enable the SSGN to hang out for longer periods in the Indian Ocean, on an island due south of the Persian Gulf, and Iran.

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benny balerio




JPost.com » Opinion » Editorials » Article


Apr. 5, 2007 20:07 | Updated Apr. 7, 2007 13:20
Iran's true face



Talkbacks for this article: 11

Fifteen British sailors are safely back home, after two weeks in Iranian captivity - a happy ending which in itself should please anyone who deplored their unjust detention in the first place and all the grist their seizure provided for Teheran's propaganda mill.

Exasperatingly, however, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his cohorts have managed to come out looking good, despite their out-and-out act of piracy, intimidation and unlawful imprisonment. In the end, instead of being held accountable for the crime of abduction, they benefit from the massive sigh of relief heaved in London and across Europe.

Given the track record of the ayatollahs' regime, things could have been far worse. The fact that the impasse was resolved so quickly (in comparison, for instance, to the 1979 hostage crisis, the 14-month imprisonment of the American Embassy staff, in which then young radical Ahmadinejad reportedly was the ringleader) ironically inspired expressions of gratitude for Iran's perceived moderation this time.

Astutely and cynically, Ahmadinejad exploited his crime to its maximum worth, posturing as the very embodiment of magnanimity, generosity of spirit and fair-mindedness. By the time his captives were paraded in front of him, shaking his hand and thanking him for not torturing them or locking them up indefinitely, wily Ahmadinejad had elicited a British promise not to invade his territorial waters, something which he could claim as an admission that he had legal cause to hold the sailors.

London might not have pleaded guilty to his charges, but from the Iranian perspective, the UK emerged as humiliated. Posing the 15 in ill-fitting civilian outfits (including a headscarf for the female detainee), parading them like appreciative schoolchildren and coaching them to wave good-bye to the caring leader (who also awarded them trinkets and sweets) was meant to mock and degrade while simultaneously bolstering the sham of beneficence. It was deliberately demeaning, not only for the individuals involved but also for their country.

Ahmadinejad underscored the indignity by depicting the release as "a gift" from the Iranian people on the occasion of Easter and the Prophet Muhammad's birthday. He thus postured as exuding excessive goodwill towards undeserving recipients of his compassion.

Despots, of course, always have evinced and continue to evince a penchant for such disingenuous pageantry. Ahmadinejad isn't the first autocrat to force hapless hostages to play act and give praise for what is falsely presented as kindness. From Hitler and Stalin and all the way down to Saddam Hussein, such deceptions have abounded. The world only saw through the pretense when it wanted to. In all too many instances, democracies preferred facile options to convince themselves that the humane facade betokened evidence of hidden good in the darkest tyrannies.

The danger of such self-deception now as well is palpable. As Iran's burgeoning nuclear ambitions literally imperil civilization, it may be tempting to find escape in wishful thinking. As Iran actively provokes unrest throughout the Mideast, aggressively promotes terrorism or destabilizes rival regimes, there is lulling appeal in the trust that it can after all behave with pragmatism and restraint.

Yet a wolf is most treacherous in sheep's clothing and a ruthless enemy is most misleading when it dons a fallaciously pleasant mask.

Iran's true face is most unmistakably exposed in the cases of the three yet unreleased Israeli abductees. Gilad Schalit has been held for ransom by Hamas kidnappers in Gaza since last June. Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev are in Hizbullah hands in Lebanon since July. All unequivocally were snatched from Israel's side of the border in outright belligerent attacks in which other soldiers were killed by ambushers. Both Hamas and Hizbullah are Iranian-sponsored and controlled.





Not only are the three still not free - without handshakes and candy packets - but they are unaccounted for. Their agonized families haven't received as much as a sign of life. Although this inconceivable cruelty doesn't seem to trouble the world much beyond obligatory sporadic lip-serve, the treatment of these three Israelis is the real litmus-test of Ahmadinejad's intent.

The free world's challenge is not to be hoodwinked by his honeyed blandishments, and critically not to let his regime's duplicitous magnanimity in resolving its own act of piracy divert attention from the Iranian nuclear threat.

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benny balerio
US aggression 'could have triggered an accidental Iran war'

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story...&IssueID=30019

LONDON: The US offered to mount aggressive air patrols over Revolutionary Guards bases during Iran's stand-off with Britain but was rebuffed by London, it was revealed last night.

Diplomatic sources said that Pentagon officials offered a series of military options, but Britain told them to keep out of the affair and instead tone down armed forces activity in the Gulf.

One of the options involved combat aircraft patrolling over Iranian bases to show how serious the incident was.

A senior Iranian source said, "If this had been between Iranian and American soldiers it could have been the beginning of an accidental war."

On March 20, three days before the 15 British marines were seized in the Gulf, a second US aircraft carrier group arrived in the region. At London's request, the two carrier groups, totalling 40 ships plus aircraft, changed their exercises to make them appear less confrontational.
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benny balerio
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/04..._diego_garcia/

US Navy builds Stingray-esque base in Indian Ocean
By Lewis Page

Published Saturday 7th April 2007 06:02 GMT

Reports have emerged (http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...rcia/index.php) that the US Navy is upgrading its submarine base at the isolated tropical atoll Diego Garcia, which is formally British territory.

The base improvements will allow its new class of SSGN nuclear submarines to operate from Diego Garcia, which is potentially noteworthy. The tiny island group is situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean, giving the US and its allies access to various strategic maritime choke points such as the Straits of Hormuz – the entrance to the Gulf – and the pirate-plagued waters of the Bab-el-Mandeb at the foot of the Red Sea.


Perhaps even more significantly in the light of recent events, Diego Garcia is a useful base for operations off the south-eastern coastline of Iran, close to the border with the lawless frontier regions of Pakistan.

Normally, a few tens of millions of dollars in base improvements wouldn't raise eyebrows even at a critical harbour like this one. But an increased presence of SSGN subs will be well worth bearing in mind for the various military forces active in the region.

This is because SSGNs aren't your average nuclear submarine. They are converted Ohio-class (http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...rike/index.php) Trident ballistic-missile boats, recently retired from their old job under the terms of strategic arms-limitation treaties. But the US Navy saw no reason to get rid of the submarines themselves, and the removal of the Tridents left them with plenty of room for other things.

The rebuilt vessels can nowadays carry 66 elite special-forces frogmen, who will typically be Navy SEALs or possibly members of the new US Marines MARSOC outfit. Some reports suggest that up to 102 underwater warriors may be able to cram in for short periods. The subs will have a "dry hangar", an underwater docking bay allowing the frogmen to deploy from their mother ship aboard SEAL Delivery Vehicles (SDVs), minisubs which can carry them in to enemy coastlines.

One variant of the SDV is said to be armed with its own torpedoes, though these would probably be for use against anchored ships rather than Stingray or James Bond style undersea dogfights. There has also been some suggestion that the Advanced SEAL Delivery System (ASDS) might deploy from the SSGNs. The ASDS is a larger, enclosed mini-sub which can carry SEALs in warm dry conditions rather than delivering them into battle shivering and frozen. However, reports suggest that the ASDS programme has hit problems; it may be that only a single prototype craft will be available.

Once the frogmen are in action, perhaps ashore in coastal regions, in enemy harbours or far inland by river, they won't be lacking support. A normal submarine can, of course, launch cruise missiles to attack targets inland; but the SSGNs are something special in this regard. Each sub is said to carry up to 154 Tactical Tomahawks, robot kamikaze jets which can be remotely piloted to strike locations a thousand miles inland.

The UK lags well behind the US, as ever, in the field of amazing Team America-like organisations – despite the fact that the converted Ohio boats' Marineville-esque base will be located on nominally British territory.

However, the Royal Marines' Special Boat Service frogmen are well thought of in the international underwater-scuffler community ("the SBS are as hard as woodpeckers' lips"," one SEAL once told this reporter). The British Troy Tempests are somewhat lacking on the kit front, though, with the UK possessing only a single dry hangar (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...icle992458.ece) attached to a relatively normal mothership. As for vessels capable of carrying 60 frogmen beneath the waves for months on end, or cruise missile firepower in the hundreds, for now the SBS can only dream.

Being submarine-based, all these things can be used even against countries with fairly capable air forces and surface patrols. The presence of SSGN-type platforms in a theatre means that any large body of water connected to the sea suddenly becomes a danger, potentially full of heavily-armed SEALs or underwater robot platforms such as the Talisman (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/03...st_a_miracle/).
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benny balerio
Apr 8 2007 5:14PM

Russian general says U.S. continues preparations for military action against Iran

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/...issue=11708925

MOSCOW. April 8 (Interfax-AVN) - The release of the 15 British sailors and marines captured by Iran has robbed the U.S. of a pretext to attack Iran, but the U.S. has not given up plans to attack Iran militarily, said Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, a Russian think tank.

"Preparations to strike Iran's strategic facilities continue. Three major groups of U.S. forces are still in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Altogether, they have up to 450 cruise missiles on alert," the general told Interfax-AVN.

"Military operations against Tehran will begin with the launch of at least two unexpected strikes using Tomahawk cruise missiles and air power in order to disable Iran's air defense capabilities," he said.

"According to our data, up to 150 aircraft are to be involved in each strike on Iran. Land-based air defense systems will be disabled in the first place, then mobile short-range systems, which Tehran has (including some 30 new systems)," he said.

Primary targets will include command centers, air defense installations, the navy, airfields, ports and docking facilities, the general said.

"Nuclear facilities may be secondary targets. According to expert assessments, at least 20 such facilities need to be destroyed in order to stop Iran's nuclear program," Ivashov said.

Ivashov did not rule out that nuclear weapons may be used against Iran.

"Combat nuclear weapons may be used for bombing. This will result in radioactive contamination of the Iranian territory, which could possibly spread to neighboring countries," he said.

"If Iran strikes back at Israel with missiles, Tel-Aviv is likely to use nuclear weapons on Iran," Ivashov said, adding that such a "development of the situation would undermine stability not only in the Middle East, but also in the entire world."

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benny balerio
Buoyant Teheran warns of further kidnappings

By Gethin Chamberlain, Philip Sherwell and Tim Shipman, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 11:56pm BST 07/04/2007



Hardliners in the Iranian regime have warned that the seizure of British naval personnel demonstrates that they can make trouble for the West whenever they want to and do so with impunity.




The bullish reaction from Teheran will reinforce the fears of western diplomats and military officials that more kidnap attempts may be planned.

The British handling of the crisis has been regarded with some concern in Washington, and a Pentagon defence official told The Sunday Telegraph: "The fear now is that this could be the first of many. If the Brits don't change their rules of engagement, the Iranians could take more hostages almost at will.

"Iran has come out of this looking reasonable. If I were the Iranians, I would keep playing the same game. They have very successfully muddied the waters and bought themselves some more time. And in parts of the Middle East they will be seen as the good guys. They could do it time and again if they wanted to."

Americans also expressed dismay that the British had suspended boarding operations in the Gulf while its tactics are reassessed.

"Iran has got what it wants. They have secured free passage for smuggling weapons into Iraq without a fight," one US defence department official said.

It is also clear that the Iranian government believes that the outcome has strengthened its position over such contentious issues as its nuclear programme. Hardliners within the regime have been lining up to crow about Britain's humiliation, and indicated that the operation was planned.

Conservative parliamentarian Amir Hassankhani, a former member of the country's Revolutionary Guard and supporter of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, told the country's semi-official Fars news agency: "The arrest and release of the British sailors proved that if Iran's issues and demands are overlooked at the international level, the Islamic republic can create different challenges for the other side."

However, a British Government official familiar with the negotiations said that while the abductions had provided Ahmadinejad with a platform from which to humiliate the West, such behaviour would have undermined Iran's ambitions for its nuclear programme. Countries which might otherwise have supported Iran would now be questioning whether a regime that took hostages could be trusted with sensitive nuclear technology.

"Ahmadinejad may have got some short-term PR bounce out of this, but the more cerebral members of the regime may be quite alarmed that they have squandered their perceived right to be treated as a country that should be trusted with a nuclear enrichment programme," he said. "In the long term, they may have lost out."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...08/wiran08.xml
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Iran says won't discuss right to make atomic fuel By Parisa Hafezi
18 minutes ago



TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will not discuss its "obvious right" to master nuclear technology but is open to talks that could reassure the West that its atomic plans were not aimed at making bombs, the foreign ministry said on Sunday.

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Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini also told a weekly news conference that the Islamic Republic's military was "totally prepared to defend the country and Iran is totally prepared for any possible military strike."

The United States, which believes Iran is trying to build an atomic bomb, has said it wants a diplomatic solution to the row over Tehran's nuclear ambitions but has not ruled out military action if that route fails.

Some diplomats speculate President Mahmoud Amadinejad could announce progress in expanding Iran's nuclear fuel work on a visit to the Natanz uranium enrichment plant Monday.

Hosseini said Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, and European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana had been in contact over the dispute, which has prompted the United Nations to slap two rounds of sanctions on Iran.

But he said Iran would not discuss its right as a member of the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium, a process which can be used to make fuel for power stations, or material for warheads if enriched to a high enough level.

"The talks should have a purpose and Iran's obvious right will not be discussed. We want talks without preconditions to remove ambiguities and to assure the other parties there will be no diversion (to military uses)," Hosseini said.

U.S. POSITION

In Crawford, Texas, Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for U.S. President George W. Bush, reiterated the U.S. position.

"We're ready to talk to the Iranians, we're for peaceful civilian nuclear energy, but they need to comply with the will of the international community and the U.N. Security Council resolutions," Johndroe said.

The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says it has gaps in its knowledge about Iran's plans that need to be filled before it can confirm they are peaceful.

Ahmadinejad, accompanied by senior officials and journalists, will visit the Natanz plant in central Iran on Monday, the day on which he has said Iran will announce "good news" about its atomic plans.

Asked what he might announce, Hosseini said: "If you wait 24 hours, you will all find out."

Iran's Jam-e Jam newspaper wrote on Sunday that "tomorrow the installation and start up of 3,000 centrifuges and the injection of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas will be announced by the president."

UF6 gas is fed into centrifuges, which enrich the feedstock by spinning at high speeds.

Jam-e Jam did not reveal a source for its report and Iranian officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

Iran now runs 350 experimental centrifuges at an above ground pilot facility at Natanz. The IAEA said in a report in February that Iran had set up two cascades of 164 centrifuges in its below ground facility, where Iran is installing 3,000 machines as part of its "industrial" enrichment plans.

Diplomats who follow Iran's nuclear file say Iran has set up four more cascades since February, bringing the total number now in the underground section to six cascades or 984 centrifuges. The diplomats have said no feedstock has been fed in yet.

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benny balerio
http://www.kommersant.com/p754484/Ru...ssile_defense/

Mar. 30, 2007Print | E-mail | Home Telephone for Mr. Putin
// Russian and US Presidents Mull Over a Joint Missile Defense
On Wednesday evening Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President George Bush spoke by telephone about America's plan to install elements of its missile defense system in Eastern Europe. During the conversation, which was initiated by Washington, Mr. Bush for the first time replied to the unease about the expansion of the US system in Europe that was expressed by Mr. Putin during his speech last month in Munich. The US is keen to dispel the cloud in its relations with Moscow and to calm its European allies in NATO by proposing a joint missile defense system with Russia. Washington believes that an expanded system in Europe is crucial to defending the world against Iranian rockets.
George Bush called Vladimir Putin at a moment when tensions around the planned expansion of the American missile defense system into Poland and the Czech Republic were reaching a breaking point. The latest manifestation of the growing displeasure felt by Moscow that was first on display in President Putin's speech in Munich was a foreign policy report unveiled this week by the Russian Foreign Ministry. "The appearance of European anti-missile bases [for the US system] would mean a significant reconfiguration of the American military presence in Europe and would lend a strategic component to the American armed forces in the region that could negatively impact the curbs on the Russian Federation's nuclear potential," warned the Russian Foreign Ministry in its report, which was sent to President Putin on Tuesday.

America's European allies, who are finding themselves squeezed between a rock and a hard place, clearly have their own grounds for concern and have recently increased their calls for Washington and Moscow to immediately begin talking to each other about the proposed missile defense system. The Europeans fear that the expansion of the American system in Poland and the Czech Republic could provoke Russia to resume production of mid-range rockets and aim them at the European continent.

After a protracted pause, President Bush eventually decided to step into the breach to personally explain the missile defense issue to President Putin. The Kremlin's press service reported after the telephone conversation between the two presidents on Wednesday evening that "in the exchange of opinions, Vladimir Putin laid out the motivations behind Russian concern about America's plan to create a missile defense base in Central Europe." The report says that "the US president expressed readiness to discuss the subject in detail" and that Washington's position was "received with satisfaction" by the Russian side.

Comments from senior American officials in the wake of the discussion between the two presidents have made it clear that George Bush's phone call to Vladimir Putin marked the beginning of an active campaign by the White House to come to an agreement with Russia and thus to remove the main obstacle on America's path to realizing its plan to install elements of its missile defense system in Europe. Cooperation between the US and Russia on a missile defense system was the main topic of a recent press briefing in Washington by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried and US Missile Defense Agency head General Henry Obering. "We look forward to discussions with our Russian friends about missile defense issues…to ease their concerns," said Mr. Fried. At the same time, he made it clear that Washington does not intend to rethink its plans to deploy ten interceptors in Poland and radar in the Czech Republic, but he emphasized that the point of these moves is not to change the strategic balance between the US and Russia but to eliminate the threat of a missile strike from Iran. In Mr. Fried's opinion, "Russia faces the same threats" as the US and Europe.

General Obering focused on the kind of cooperation on missile defense that could be established between Moscow and Washington. According to General Obering, the US is "very open to Russian participation and invitation into collaboration on missile defense in the broader sense and on any level" and is ready to enter into a discussion of concrete aspects of collaboration. In particular, he said, the US and Russia could exchange radar data about rocket launches, which "could be very useful to the defense of Russia, obviously, and the European theater."

Significantly, soon after the press briefing in Washington Daniel Fried made yet another statement, this time on the Russian television channel "Vesti 24," in which he empathically called on Moscow not to dramatize the situation around US plans for a missile defense system in Europe. The American diplomat also criticized the idea of Russia producing medium-range rockets and placing them on military alert in response to America's plans. "That does not seem to me to be a very good response. The modest missile defense system that the US is currently developing does not pose a threat to Russia," said Mr. Fried, noting that the system will involve "ten small rockets unequipped with warheads" and weighing only 75 kg each. "It seems to me that it would be not entirely correct of Russia to reply to a nonexistent threat by creating a missile system that itself will be a threat," he said somewhat testily.

Washington apparently now sees the creation of a joint missile defense system as the lone way out of an increasingly sticky situation. "It would be much better if Russia and the US began to work together in the NATO-Russia Council to create a common missile defense system that could protect against common threats," said Mr. Fried. The threats to which he is referring, of course, are "Iran and other countries that could irresponsibly develop ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads to put on them."

Following President Bush's phone call to Vladimir Putin and the subsequent commentary from American officials offering concrete proposals to Moscow on the issue of a missile defense system, the ball is now in Russia's court. Moscow has previously been claiming bewilderment at America's plan to forge ahead without taking Russia's opinion into account. Now that the US is offering a partnership to Russia for the creation of a common missile defense system, however, Moscow can no longer accuse the US of attempting to upset the strategic balance in its own favor by acting unilaterally. Thus, if Moscow wishes to continue to obstruct America's plans to build a missile defense system in Europe, it will have to come up with some new arguments.

The two sides are expected to clarify their positions in April at the next session of the NATO-Russia Council. Yesterday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at the Russian position, noting that Moscow is counting on a broader consultation involving America's European allies. "This subject is so important for all Europeans that it is necessary to hold an appropriate consultation in a broader format. I anticipate that this will be agreed upon next month, when the topic of missile defense is scheduled to be discussed at the NATO-Russia Council," said Mr. Lavrov after talks with the Portuguese foreign minister.

Sergei Strokan
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benny balerio
DPA: Hezbollah warns against attack on Iran

9 April 2007 | 00:43
FOCUS News Agency
http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n109730

Lebanon. The secretary general of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah movement, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, warned Sunday against any attack on Iran. "If anyone in Lebanon is building hopes that Iran will be attacked I tell them if this happens the whole region will not stay the same and counting on such calculations will prove to be wrong," Nasrallah, who is backed by Iran and Syria, told a group of his followers during a ceremony in Beirut's southern suburbs.
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benny balerio
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20030701/



1960s "Nth Country Experiment" Foreshadows Today's Concerns Over the Ease of Nuclear Proliferation

July 1, 2003

William Burr, editor

Recent issues of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Guardian (UK) (Note 1) describe a fascinating experiment, sponsored by Lawrence Radiation Laboratory during the mid-1960s, to determine whether a non-nuclear power could develop a nuclear weapons capability more or less from scratch, without access to classified information. For U.S. government officials this was not an academic exercise; since the mid-to-late 1950s, U.S. policymakers, intelligence analysts, and policy-oriented academics had been thinking and writing about the "Nth country problem"--the possibility that some undetermined number of countries would develop nuclear weapons capabilities. The problem of nuclear proliferation, as it eventually became known, provoked concern that the addition of new nuclear-armed states would create a more unstable and perilous world. For example, during a 1963 press conference, President John F. Kennedy suggested that the possibility of a world, during the 1970s, with 15 or 20 nuclear powers, posed the "greatest possible danger and hazard." (Note 2)

To better gauge the threat of nuclear proliferation, administrators at Lawrence Radiation Laboratory wanted to determine what it would it would take for a single-minded Nth country to build a bomb. The lab hired two newly-minted physicists, David Dobson and Robert Selden, with no access to or knowledge of classified information, to "produce a credible nuclear weapons design." Although Dobson and Selden lacked access to classified information, they knew, just as every would-be nuclear proliferant has known since August 1945, the most important nuclear "secret" of all: that it is possible to design and produce nuclear weapons. As Manhattan project director General Leslie Groves had testified in 1945, "the big secret … that the thing went off … told more to the world and to the physicists and scientists of the world than any other thing that could be told to them." (Note 3) The two scientists received "Q" clearances for nuclear weapons design information because any information that they developed on nuclear design would, under the law, be considered secret and "born classified." After three "man-years", the two physicists had produced a "credible" design for an implosion nuclear weapon that would be triggered by a plutonium pit. According to the articles, which are based on interviews with the participants, the experiment was a success. The amateur bomb designers learned that they had produced a plan for a device that, if constructed and tested, would have as much explosive force as the weapon that had devastated Hiroshima in August 1945.

Both the Bulletin and the Guardian articles draw on the "Summary Report of the Nth Country Experiment," edited by Lawrence physicist W. J. Frank in March 1967. The Energy Department partly declassified this report in 1995 in response to a FOIA request by the National Security Archive. The document is heavily excised; for example, a bibliography of the unclassified publications that the designers read during the experiment is completely withheld. In addition, the Energy Department excised specific conclusions about the practicability of the design. Plainly, the Department of Energy's reviewers did not want to release information that would increase anyone's confidence that they could design and develop their own nuclear weapons. While access to fissile materials remains the most significant barrier to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, at a time when Al Qaeda is racing to get the bomb it is difficult to find fault with the judgment that the release of nuclear weapons design information requires the utmost caution.
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benny balerio
By GEORGE CONGER
JERUSALEM POST CORRESPONDENT
London
Apr. 8, 2007

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Over half of Europeans would support a preemptive military strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a poll released last week by a London think-tank reports.

A survey commissioned by the pro-business think tank, Open Europe, found that a majority of those surveyed in 18 EU member states including France and Britain, backed military action as an option in dealing with the threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, while majorities in 9 nations including Germany and Spain were opposed.

However, the April 4 survey of more than 17,000 Europeans in March conducted by the French polling firm TNS-Sofres found little support for increasing military expenditures to counter or contain the threat.

In response to the statement, "We must stop countries like Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if that means taking military action", 52 percent of Europeans agreed, 40 percent disagreed and 8 percent stated they were undecided.

Support for the military option varied widely, with Danes giving the greatest support at 68 percent and Slovaks the least at 37 percent. Support for military action amongst the great powers was closely divided; France 53 percent, Britain 51 percent, Italy 49 percent, and Germany 45 percent.

Questioned as to the threat their countries faced from "Islamic fundamentalism", European opinion was more diverse. While 58 percent over all agreed militant Islam was a serious threat, the national responses ranged from 71 percent in Britain, 66 percent in Germany, 64 percent in France, to 24 percent in Latvia.

However, few voters in the EU would be prepared to see cuts in domestic spending to finance higher defense outlays to counter the threat. Only 37 percent of British voters and 23 percent of all EU voters agreed with the statement that, "Our country should spend more on defense and less on other things."

EU government budgets reflect the public antipathy towards military spending. In reports released on Jan. 24 by the European Defence Agency (EDA), the EU spent €193 billion (US$255 billion) on defense in 2005, about 1.8 percent of total GDP and less than four percent of all government expenditures by EU member-states---a rate roughly one half of total US defense spending.

Between 2000 and 2006 real military expenditures grew by more than 40 percent in the US, not including supplemental appropriations for the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. According to NATO figures, during the same period defense spending declined in Germany and Italy, and grew by only five percent in France and six percent in Britain.

David
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benny balerio
Nasrallah: Hezbollah will stay armed to offset Israel

By The Associated Press
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/846660.html

The leader of the militant Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, on Sunday vowed that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until a strong Lebanese army capable of defending the country against Israeli attacks is established.

The Hezbollah leader apparently was responding to repeated calls by the country's anti-Syrian parliamentary majority for his group to disarm in line with a UN resolution that ended last summer's Israel-Hezbollah war.

Nasrallah also said Sunday that a dialogue among feuding Lebanese leaders has failed to resolve the country's political crisis and proposed a public referendum or early parliamentary elections as a way out of the four month long stalemate.

Nasrallah spoke at a ceremony in south Beirut marking the graduation of more than 1,700 Hezbollah supporters from Lebanese universities. After his speech that lasted more than an hour, he handed certificates to the graduates during the ceremony attended by thousands of people.

The latest bilateral dialogue has reached a dead end, Nasrallah said, referring to last month's meetings between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an opposition leader aligned with Hezbollah, and Saad Hariri, the leader of parliament's pro-government majority.

When we reach a deadlock, the only logic is to resort to the people who are the source of power, rather than resorting to the outside world because the outside world is a party (to the conflict) and is supporting a party, Nasrallah said, referring to Arab and Western countries that support the Lebanese government.

There are two democratic formulas in the world: either a Lebanese public referendum on a solution or early parliamentary elections, the black-turbaned Shiite cleric added.

Anti-Syrian parties, who do not support neighboring Damascus' involvement in Lebanese affairs, won a majority in the 128-member legislature during the 2005 parliamentary elections and have rejected the opposition's demand for early elections. The next elections are due in 2009.

The Hezbollah-led opposition has been campaigning with protests and sit-ins since Dec. 1 in downtown Beirut - just outside the prime minister's office - to try to force him to resign or share power in a national unity Cabinet that would give the opposition veto power.

U.S.-backed Prime Minister Fouad Saniora has refused to resign. Hariri and his allies in the anti-Syrian coalition have rejected the opposition's demand for Cabinet veto power on key decisions, calling it a political suicide.

Nasrallah said he will no longer accept the opposition's demand for 11 seats in a 30-member Cabinet, saying such an offer is silly and weak.

The Berri-Hariri meetings came after months of dispute in which feuding politicians traded insults and their supporters clashed in the streets, leading many to fear that the country was returning to the violence of the 1975-90 civil war. Political and sectarian tensions turned violent in January, with nine people were killed in street clashes.

Berri last week called on Saudi Arabia to host a conference of rival Lebanese leaders to reach a solution to the crisis. But this was rejected by pro-Saniora leaders who insisted the country reach its own solution before going to Saudi Arabia.

In his speech, Nasrallah rejected claims that Hezbollah, which has refused to hand over its weapons to the government, was acting like a state within a state.

Hezbollah stood fast in the face of the 34-day devastating Israeli air and artillery bombardment of its positions in south and eastern Lebanon as well as Beirut's southern suburbs. The war ended with a UN cease-fire resolution on Aug. 14.

Nasrallah vowed to keep Hezbollah weapons until a powerful army capable of defending Lebanon is formed.

"The only solution is that there must be a strong state and a strong army capable of confronting any Israeli aggression on Lebanon," he said.
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Hezbollah sees deadlock, Lebanon crisis continuing

By Nadim Ladki
Sun Apr 8, 12:33 PM ET
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070408/...n_hezbollah_dc

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Shi'ite Muslim Hezbollah has given up hope of reaching a compromise deal with Lebanon's Western-backed majority coalition to end the country's political crisis, the group's leader said on Sunday.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Hezbollah would not be dragged into civil war despite the failure of last month's Saudi-backed talks between the majority and the opposition to resolve the five-month-old standoff.

"The dialogue is deadlocked. What do we do?," Nasrallah said at a Hezbollah ceremony in Beirut's southern suburbs.

"We don't want a civil war. If the stalemate continues for a while until a solution is found or we go to a civil war, then let the stalemate continue."

Nasrallah said Hezbollah no longer demanded veto power in Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government but the only way out of the crisis was through a referendum to resolve the deadlock or early elections -- a proposal Siniora and his allies have already rejected.

Otherwise, he said, he and his opposition allies were willing to bide their time until circumstances become ripe for a solution or regular elections are held in 2009.

Lebanon is facing its worst crisis since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. Opposition ministers, including all Shi'ites, resigned from government in November because of Siniora's refusal to give them 11 seats in the 30-member cabinet and effectively hand veto power to his opponents.

"We in the opposition became like beggars ... I don't want this 19-11 (formula) anymore," Nasrallah said, closing the door for any negotiations with the majority.

WILL OF THE PEOPLE

"Today, the courageous decision is to return to the will of the Lebanese people," Nasrallah said.

Sectarian violence has killed 10 people since the opposition took to the streets shortly after the resignations, raising fears of bloody Sunni-Shi'ite strife.

Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, is the most powerful group in the opposition. The majority is led by Sunni leader Saad al-Hariri, son of late Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005.

Nasrallah slammed the anti-Syrian majority for asking the U.N. Security Council to set up an international court to try suspects in the killing of Rafik al-Hariri despite opposition demands that its laws be amended and passed by parliament.

The majority, which accuse the opposition of trying to thwart the tribunal's establishment to protect its allies in the Syrian government, has demanded a session of parliament so lawmakers can vote on the tribunal draft.

But Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri -- a Hezbollah ally -- has yet to convene the chamber. He says he will not call it to debate the tribunal until President Emile Lahoud, also a Syrian ally, has signed the draft and a new government is formed.

Majority leaders accuse Damascus of the 2005 killing and a string of other attacks on anti-Syrian figures that are all being probed by a U.N. investigation. Syria denies involvement.
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Iran expands uranium enrichment By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer
58 minutes ago



NATANZ, Iran - Iran announced Monday that it has begun enriching uranium with 3,000 centrifuges, defiantly expanding a nuclear program that has drawn U.N. sanctions and condemnation from the West.

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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said at a ceremony at the enrichment facility at Natanz that Iran was now capable of enriching nuclear fuel "on an industrial scale."

Asked if Iran has begun injecting uranium gas into 3,000 centrifuges for enrichment, top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani replied, "Yes." He did not elaborate, but it was the first confirmation that Iran had installed the larger set of centrifuges after months of saying it intends to do so. Until now, Iran was only known to have 328 centrifuges operating.

Uranium enrichment can produce fuel for a nuclear reactor or the material for a nuclear warhead. The United States and its allies accuse Iran of intending to produce weapons, a charge the country denies.

Sean McCormack, the State Department spokesman, said the U.N. Security Council and the U.N. nuclear watchdog group "don't believe Iran's assurances that their (nuclear) program is peaceful in nature."

The White House also criticized the announcment.

"Iran continues to defy the international community and further isolate itself by expanding its nuclear program, rather than suspending uranium enrichment," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council.

The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, had no immediate comment on Monday's announcement.

The United Nations has vowed to ratchet up sanctions as long as Iran refuses to suspend enrichment. The Security Council first imposed limited sanctions in December, then increased them slightly last month and has set a new deadline of late May.

"What we are looking for are reasonable Iranian leaders who view the cost-benefit calculation and see that it is not to the benefit of the Iranian people to continue to pursue the course on which they find themselves," McCormack said.

Michael Levi, a fellow for science and technology at the Council on Foreign Relations, was skeptical of the Iranian claims. He said by his calculations, the capabilities Iran has just announced would provide 10 percent of the material needed to run its plant.

"To me, that's not industrial scale," Levi said. "An industrial-scale facility is a facility that can support your industry."

On the other hand, "from a political perspective, it's more important to have them in place than to have them run properly," he explained since the announcement stirs up support and patriotism at home, and the international community has almost no way to verify how well the program is working.

"Iran looks to be moving its nuclear program along on a political schedule rather than a technical schedule," Levi said.

Levi marveled that Iran has the power to cause such a stir with an announcement. He noted that most of the time, world leaders complain they can't trust Iran, "except when they say something really scary, we take them at their word."

In his speech, Ahmadinejad insisted Iran has been cooperative with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, allowing it inspections of its facilities, but he warned, "Don't do something that will make this great nation reconsider its policies" in a reference to the threat of increased U.N. sanctions.

"With great honor, I declare that as of today our dear country has joined the nuclear club of nations and can produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale," Ahmadinejad said.

Larijani said his country was willing to offer assurances that its program is peaceful. But he said the West must accept its nuclear program as a fact: "We do not give in our rights."

On April 9, 2006, Iran announced it had first enriched uranium using an array of 164 centrifuges.

Across Iran, school bells rang on Monday to mark the "national day of nuclear energy." The government sent out text messages of congratulations for the occasion to millions of mobile phone users.

In Tehran, some 200 students formed a human chain at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization while chanting "death to America" and "death to Britain." The students burnt flags of the U.S. and Britain.

Experts say the Natanz plant needs between 50,000 to 60,000 centrifuges to consistently produce fuel for a reactor or build a warhead.

In the enrichment process, uranium gas is pumped into a "cascade" of thousands of centrifuges, which spin the gas at supersonic speeds to purify it. Uranium enriched to a low level, at least 3 percent, can be used as fuel, while at a far higher level, more than 90 percent, it can be used to build a weapon.

Also Monday, Iranian state television reported that an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general who is under travel restrictions urged by the sanctions visited Russia without any difficulty.

Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who is also deputy interior minister for security affairs, was quoted on the state TV Web site as saying that his six-day journey to Moscow, which ended Monday, showed "the ineffectiveness of the resolution."

The resolution urges all governments to ban visits by the 15 individuals and says that should such visits occur — presumably for exceptional circumstances — the countries should notify a U.N. committee.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Krivtsov confirmed that Zolqadr visited Russia. He told The Associated Press that the resolution does not prohibit visits by the listed individuals, but calls for heightened vigilance "directed first of all at people who are directly related to nuclear programs" — suggesting that Zolqadr was not.

Tensions are also high between Iran and the West following the 13-day detention of 15 British sailors by Iran. The sailors, who were seized by Revolutionary Guards off the Iraqi coast, were released on Wednesday, but since then have said they were put under psychological pressure by their captors to force them to "confess" to being in Iranian waters when captured, angering many in Britain.

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Tehran’s Provocations top US Military Build-up to Ratchet up War Tensions



DEBKAfile Special Report

April 9, 2007, 6:09 PM (GMT+02:00)
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1265

Marines training on USS Baatan amphibious assault ship


No attempt was made to conceal the visit a cluster of top US brass paid April 4 to American marine units aboard the multipurpose amphibious assault ship USS Baatan (LHD 5) and other vessels of the strike group deployed in the Persian Gulf. In fact they were happy to answer questions about policies, equipment and future plans.

The group visiting the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) aboard the Baatan was led by Gen. James Conway. With him were Lt. Gen. Keith Stadler, Commanding General of II Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF), Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. John Estrada and Rear Adm. Richard Jeffries, medical officer of the Marine Corps.

The group earlier climbed aboard the USS Oak Hill and USS Shreveport, which are part of the Bataan Strike Group.

Tehran took this public flurry of activity as another sign of an impending US assault. Its response came four days later. On April 8, the foreign ministry spokesman in Tehran Mohammad Ali Hossein said the Iranian army had completed all its preparations for defending the homeland and Iran was prepared to repel a military offensive.

The tenor of the language emitting from Iran is one of defiance across the board.

The foreign ministry in Tehran announced Monday, April 9: “Talks with the US are not on Iran’s agenda,” in reference to planned meetings on the sidelines of the second Iraq security conference taking place in Cairo next month.

This was the final death blow to the US-Saudi initiative to engage Iran, which was fathered earlier this year by the Bush administration and Saudi King Abdullah. Washington had pinned high hopes on the follow-up Cairo meeting providing the forum for direct talks between US and Iranian foreign ministers.

Since Tehran has knocked this prospect on the head, not much is expected to come out of the Cairo gathering of UN Security Council and G-8 members as well as Iraq’s neighbors – even if it takes place. This too is in question, given the menacing tone of Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki. On Monday, he warned that relations with Iraq could deteriorate if the five Iranians detained in Iraq by US troops last February are not freed. Tehran is investigating their fate, he said, and urged Iraq to do the same.

Radical president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s proclamation of National Nuclear Energy Day celebrations to mark the first anniversary of Iran’s initial breakthrough on uranium enrichment is taken as a red flag to the West.

Notwithstanding persistent speculation, the Iranian leader refrained from announcing the installation of 3,000 centrifuges, which would have marked an important stride in large-scale uranium enrichment. He only announced “industrial scale” production of enriched uranium." DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources disclose that Iran has not managed to install more than 1,000 centrifuges, and possibly less, for lack of progress in overcoming technical hitches. The other 2,000 are either still being run in or inoperative.

Last week, ABC News revealed that in the last three months, Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material

The addition of 1,000 new centrifuges, which are not yet operational, means Iran is expanding its enrichment program at a pace much faster than U.S. intelligence experts had predicted. The Islamic Republic may indeed have a bomb by 2009. This is six years earlier than the previous US intelligence time frame of 2015 and closer to Israeli intelligence assessments.

And this week, Aviation Week & Space Technology brought out some new data relevant to Iran’s missile program about the expansion of Chinese missile strength US monitoring operations.

The weekly reports that US Air Force Defense Support Program monitors have noted that both the Chinese and the Iranians “have very vigorous test programs. The number of ballistic missile launch events we are seeing with DSP is increasing.”

USAF Lt. Col, Joe Coniligio is quoted as saying: “…with major new Chinese and Iranian flight test activity to monitor, the DSP program has major initiatives underway to extract more intelligence out of the infrared data stream from each of the satellites.”

Also Monday, Iranian state TV announced Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr had demonstrated the “ineffectiveness” of UN sanctions by spending six days in Moscow in defiance of the international ban on his travel. The Russians confirmed this. The general is listed with 15 individuals, whose visits all governments are required to ban.

DEBKAfile’ sources note additional factors contributing to heightened tensions in the region, chiefly the high death toll the US and British military are sustaining in Iraq from high-powered Iranian roadside bombs, 10 Americans and 6 Britons killed over the Easter weekend alone. Quantities of lethal weapons continued to flow across the border to the anti-US Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s Mehdi Army militia. US and Iraqi forces have been battling these militia units for almost a week in the town of Diwaniya south of Baghdad. The Shiites are armed to the teeth with smuggled Iranian arms, including anti-tank and anti-air missiles.

Sadr brought out to the streets of Najef and Kufa on Monday, April, 9, the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad, tens of thousands of anti-American demonstrators who burned US flags and demanded the end of “American occupation.” Sadr in person is a constant thorn in America’s side from a safe distance in Tehran.
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benny balerio
Tehran’s Provocations top US Military Build-up to Ratchet up War Tensions



DEBKAfile Special Report

April 9, 2007, 6:09 PM (GMT+02:00)
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1265

Marines training on USS Baatan amphibious assault ship


No attempt was made to conceal the visit a cluster of top US brass paid April 4 to American marine units aboard the multipurpose amphibious assault ship USS Baatan (LHD 5) and other vessels of the strike group deployed in the Persian Gulf. In fact they were happy to answer questions about policies, equipment and future plans.

The group visiting the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) aboard the Baatan was led by Gen. James Conway. With him were Lt. Gen. Keith Stadler, Commanding General of II Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF), Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. John Estrada and Rear Adm. Richard Jeffries, medical officer of the Marine Corps.

The group earlier climbed aboard the USS Oak Hill and USS Shreveport, which are part of the Bataan Strike Group.

Tehran took this public flurry of activity as another sign of an impending US assault. Its response came four days later. On April 8, the foreign ministry spokesman in Tehran Mohammad Ali Hossein said the Iranian army had completed all its preparations for defending the homeland and Iran was prepared to repel a military offensive.

The tenor of the language emitting from Iran is one of defiance across the board.

The foreign ministry in Tehran announced Monday, April 9: “Talks with the US are not on Iran’s agenda,” in reference to planned meetings on the sidelines of the second Iraq security conference taking place in Cairo next month.

This was the final death blow to the US-Saudi initiative to engage Iran, which was fathered earlier this year by the Bush administration and Saudi King Abdullah. Washington had pinned high hopes on the follow-up Cairo meeting providing the forum for direct talks between US and Iranian foreign ministers.

Since Tehran has knocked this prospect on the head, not much is expected to come out of the Cairo gathering of UN Security Council and G-8 members as well as Iraq’s neighbors – even if it takes place. This too is in question, given the menacing tone of Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki. On Monday, he warned that relations with Iraq could deteriorate if the five Iranians detained in Iraq by US troops last February are not freed. Tehran is investigating their fate, he said, and urged Iraq to do the same.

Radical president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s proclamation of National Nuclear Energy Day celebrations to mark the first anniversary of Iran’s initial breakthrough on uranium enrichment is taken as a red flag to the West.

Notwithstanding persistent speculation, the Iranian leader refrained from announcing the installation of 3,000 centrifuges, which would have marked an important stride in large-scale uranium enrichment. He only announced “industrial scale” production of enriched uranium." DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources disclose that Iran has not managed to install more than 1,000 centrifuges, and possibly less, for lack of progress in overcoming technical hitches. The other 2,000 are either still being run in or inoperative.

Last week, ABC News revealed that in the last three months, Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched uranium, adding some 1,000 centrifuges which are used to separate radioactive particles from the raw material

The addition of 1,000 new centrifuges, which are not yet operational, means Iran is expanding its enrichment program at a pace much faster than U.S. intelligence experts had predicted. The Islamic Republic may indeed have a bomb by 2009. This is six years earlier than the previous US intelligence time frame of 2015 and closer to Israeli intelligence assessments.

And this week, Aviation Week & Space Technology brought out some new data relevant to Iran’s missile program about the expansion of Chinese missile strength US monitoring operations.

The weekly reports that US Air Force Defense Support Program monitors have noted that both the Chinese and the Iranians “have very vigorous test programs. The number of ballistic missile launch events we are seeing with DSP is increasing.”

USAF Lt. Col, Joe Coniligio is quoted as saying: “…with major new Chinese and Iranian flight test activity to monitor, the DSP program has major initiatives underway to extract more intelligence out of the infrared data stream from each of the satellites.”

Also Monday, Iranian state TV announced Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr had demonstrated the “ineffectiveness” of UN sanctions by spending six days in Moscow in defiance of the international ban on his travel. The Russians confirmed this. The general is listed with 15 individuals, whose visits all governments are required to ban.

DEBKAfile’ sources note additional factors contributing to heightened tensions in the region, chiefly the high death toll the US and British military are sustaining in Iraq from high-powered Iranian roadside bombs, 10 Americans and 6 Britons killed over the Easter weekend alone. Quantities of lethal weapons continued to flow across the border to the anti-US Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s Mehdi Army militia. US and Iraqi forces have been battling these militia units for almost a week in the town of Diwaniya south of Baghdad. The Shiites are armed to the teeth with smuggled Iranian arms, including anti-tank and anti-air missiles.

Sadr brought out to the streets of Najef and Kufa on Monday, April, 9, the fourth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad, tens of thousands of anti-American demonstrators who burned US flags and demanded the end of “American occupation.” Sadr in person is a constant thorn in America’s side from a safe distance in Tehran.
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benny balerio




JPost.com » Iran » Article


Apr. 9, 2007 21:30
Report: Iran ready for attack on nuke facilities
By JPOST.COM STAFF


Iran's army has raised its level of alert in preparation for a possible attack on its nuclear facilities by the United States or Israel, the newspaper Al-Hayat reported Monday.

A spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Muhammad Ali Husseini, told the paper that if its nuclear facilities were attacked, Iran would "know how to defend itself."
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benny balerio
Hamas mounts a new suicide terror offensive against Israeli cities from the West Bank. The first attack was planned for the Seder Feast in Tel Aviv

April 10, 2007, 7:57 AM (GMT+02:00)





In a combined operation, the Shin Bet and IDF rounded up in the West Bank town of Qalqilya 12 members of a Hamas network which managed to send a truck loaded with 100 kilos of explosives into Greater Tel Aviv on Passover Eve.

For some unknown reason, the truck, which was to have kicked off the resumed Hamas suicide offensive, turned back and was accidentally detonated in the West Bank.

Security sources report that the lethal freight came from a mountain of explosive materials which Hamas has been smuggling for months into the West Bank from the Gaza Strip for their new suicide offensive against Israeli cities - together with an unknown quantity of Qassam missiles. That Hamas has moved on from its build-up phase to active suicide error was disclosed by the 19 detainees in interrogation.

The suicide bomber, a Palestinian granted Israeli citizenship under Israel’s family reunification scheme, was killed when his truck which carried Israeli number plates exploded.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that members of the Qalqilya Hamas network are still at large and that not all its stock of explosives has been run down. Hamas is also suspected of running similar networks in other West bank towns, such as Tulkarm and Nablus. The Islamist group is targeting Palestinians granted Israeli citizenship who may use Israeli license plates on their vehicles, and Israeli Arab collaborators to defy Israeli security watches on the crossings from the West Bank into Israeli towns. In this case, the truck crossed into Israel despite the closure imposed on the West Bank for the Feast of Passover.

Two weeks ago, chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi stated that one of the Israel military’s most urgent tasks now is to block the transfer of weapons and war materiel from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank, bringing Israel’s heartland cities into close range. DEBKAfile reported at the time that he is too late. The lethal stocks are already in place.

Israel is now paying for unilaterally handing over the southern Gaza Strip border and territory to Palestinian and Egyptian control two years ago. This blunder was compounded by the Sharon and Olmert governments’ self-imposed military restraint from the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza up to the present. Only Sderot and its neighbors within missile range of Gaza have taken the punishment of Qassam rockets on their homes and schools. But this is about to change.

Just as no action was taken to stem the flow of weapons from Egyptian Sinai to the Gaza Strip, nothing has been done to sever the smuggling routes from Gaza to the West Bank. Under cover of a phony truce, not only weapons, explosives, but also terrorist experts are arriving unhindered from Iran, Syria and Lebanon, while hundreds of Hamas and Jihad Islami terrorists are traveling freely to Iran and Lebanon for specialist training and returning home, without Israel raising a finger to stop them.

The 2007 terrorists are more sophisticated, better trained, more skilled and more powerfully armed than their predecessors of the years 2002 to 2004, when Israel was subjected to a sustained campaign of large-scale suicide terror. The truck which came dangerously close to bombing Tel Aviv was a last warning.
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NUCLEAR WAR-FEAR
Iran possibly months from making bomb
New reports indicate Tehran close to enriching weapons-grade uranium

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Posted: April 10, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern


By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2007 WorldNetDaily.com


With news yesterday that Iran has begun injecting uranium hexafluoride gas into 3,000 centrifuges at its Natanz nuclear facility, the Islamic nation could be less than one year away from being able to enrich weapons-grade uranium.

International reports persist that Iran has made improvements to the advanced P2 centrifuge designs it bought from the black market network created by rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Kahn in 1987.

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) told the subcommittees of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs March 15 Iran had mastered manufacturing all the centrifuge components of the P1 centrifuge.

(Story continues below)


Albright acknowledged much less is known about Iran's mastery of manufacturing the P2 centrifuge since Tehran had denied the International Atomic Energy Agency access to the information.

Mohammad Saiedi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, told reporters yesterday that within the next 20 days, Iran will disclose the number of centrifuges to which uranium hexafluoride, or UF6, gas has been injected.

Larijani also warned that Tehran could withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty if the international community imposed any additional penalties on Iran.

WND previously reported Russian sources continue to predict the U.S. will launch an air and missile strike on Iran in April.

WND also reported the USS Nimitz carrier battle group left San Diego April 2 and is headed to the Persian Gulf. The Nimitz is expected to relieve the USS Eisenhower currently on station in the Persian Gulf. The Nimitz will join the USS Stennis in a continued two-carrier battle group presence in the Gulf.

Iran's announcement today validates that Iran has installed at Natanz 10 time the number of centrifuges previously known, defying skeptics who have been predicting that Iran was years away from being technically capable of enriching uranium to weapons grade.

As recently as August 2005, a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate put Iran about 10 years away from being able to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

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benny balerio
Monday, April 09, 2007
WAR CLOUDS OVER EPICENTER: And Olmert's approval drops to mere 2%

UPDATED: Just got back from ten days in Israel....I'll post details of my trip soon....but one quick note: fears of a major regional war continue to grow, and -- unfortunately -- for good reason:
>> the Shin Bet and IDF busted up a Hamas terror cell that was planning to set off a car bomb in Tel Aviv on Passover with over 220 pounds of explosives -- further evidence the Iranian-financed terror group is aggressively seeking to blow up the peace process and kill innocent Jews (thank God it didn't work).
>> Iran has released their British naval hostages but humiliated the United Kingdom and painfully exposed the weakness of the West to effectively confront the radical Islamic republic (see Charles Krauthhammer's excellent column)
>> a story in London's Daily Telegraph suggests the mullahs in Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb within two years....though Russia now claims there is no sign that Iran is able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale.
>> Saudi Arabia claims to want to lead a new round of Middle East peace talks, but demands that Israel agree to withdraw from all the land it won in the 1967 War (including all of the West Bank and half of Jerusalem) or face outright war with the Islamic War....“If Israel refuses [to accept the Saudi plan], that means it doesn’t want peace and it places everything back in the hands of fate," said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal. "They will be putting their future not in the hands of the peacemakers but in the hands of the lords of war.”"
>> "Israel’s chief of military intelligence warned yesterday that Hezbollah, Syria and Iran were preparing for a possible attack on Tehran by Israel’s main ally the US as early as this summer," reports the Arab Gulf Times. "Amos Yadlin told the weekly cabinet meeting that Israel’s three principal foes were steeling their defences because they feared a US attack on Iran, a senior official who attended the meeting said. 'Their preparation is defensive ahead of war,' the official quoted Yadlin as saying on condition of anonymity. 'They fear a war initiated by the Americans because they understand that there might be an attack against Iran over the summer, but not by Israel.'”
>> at the same time, Bush administration officials are increasingly concerned that Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas are planning to preemptively launch an apocalyptic war to wipe Israel off the map, perhaps as early as this summer....yet Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi chose to go to Syria and Saudi Arabia to appease the tyrant Bashar al-Assad and effectively dismiss the Saudi and Iranian threats against the Jewish State....former House Speaker Newt Gingrich put it well: “She claimed to be carrying a diplomatic message from the Israeli prime minister, which the Israeli prime minister promptly disowned and said she got it wrong....I think it’s very dangerous for America to do what Speaker Pelosi did.”
>> a third U.S. aircraft carrier strike group -- led by the U.S.S. Nimitz -- began steaming toward the Persian Gulf last week
>> meanwhile, the leadership crisis in Israel continues to worsen....Time magazine reports that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert now has a mere 2% approval rating with the Israeli people, just at a time the nation faces existential threats.

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 11:39 PM
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Abdullah to Iran: Don't underestimate the US
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia


Saudi Arabia has told Iran not to count on the kingdom's help if the international community imposes harsher measures on Teheran because of its refusal to abide by international requirements on the nuclear issue.

At a meeting in Riyadh last month, King Abdullah told visiting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran will have to "bear the consequences" of its actions, and that it should not underestimate the power, capabilities or will of the United States and the rest of the international community, according to a Saudi official.

"We told him, 'Don't come back to us and say you wish somebody had told you that,"' the official said. "Don't come back and ask for help."

The king was equally blunt with Syrian President Bashar Assad, whom he met in Riyadh on the sidelines of the Arab summit last month. Abdullah told Assad that if he wants to improve relations with Saudi Arabia, which are at an all-time low, he first has to prove his good intentions in Lebanon, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issues.

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benny balerio
Russia to launch new line of nuclear subs

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RUSSIA will next weekend launch its first new strategic nuclear submarine since the downfall of the Soviet Union, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said overnight.

"This is the first time in 17 years that we are building such a submarine. Another year will be needed to technically equip it in water and to arm it," Mr Ivanov said at a government meeting, attended by President Vladimir Putin.

The nuclear submarine, named Yuri Dolgoruki, will carry Russia's latest inter-continental missiles, the Bulava-M, which went into production last year.

The naval Bulava ballistic missiles are equipped with 10 nuclear warheads that have a reach of 8000km.

The new vessel will be launched on Sunday into the White Sea from the Severodvinsk naval base in northwestern Russia.

Russia plans to build three other submarines of the same kind, Mr Ivanov said, adding that the Alexander Nevski and the Vladimir Monomakh were already under construction.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599...6-1702,00.html
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benny balerio
http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre....php?id=287019


Iran: Goal Is 50,000 Centrifuges
April 10, 2007 14 36 GMT

Iran's goal for its uranium enrichment program is to install 50,000 centrifuges, Iranian Vice President and atomic chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh said April 10. However, he did not release details of how far the country has advanced. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said April 9 that Iran is currently able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, but Agence France-Presse quoted a Western diplomat as saying those statements are "simply not credible."
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Iran makes significant progress toward nukes

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Printer-friendly version Source: Israel National News
April 10, 2007

Half-measures by the United Nations aimed at stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear arms continue to fail miserably.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced on Monday that he had kept his promise to significantly increase his nation's ability to enrich uranium, an important step toward building atomic weapons.

Speaking at the nuclear facility at Natanz, Ahmadinejad revealed the recent installation and activation of at least 3,000 additional centrifuges used to enrich uranium hexafluoride gas.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani later confirmed the major slap in the international community's face.

Israeli officials have been warning for months that the international community must employ far harsher measures, including possible military intervention, if there is to be any hope keeping nuclear weapons out of Ahmadinejad's hands.

The Iranian demagogue has hinted that he would use such weapons to fulfill his deeply-held desire to annihilate the Jewish state.

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benny balerio
Aghazadeh: Iran plans to install 50,000 centrifuges
www.chinaview.cn 2007-04-10 20:58:30


TEHRAN, April 10 (Xinhua) -- Head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Gholamreza Aghazadeh said on Tuesday that Iran plans to install 50,000 centrifuges, the official IRNA news agency reported.

"We have plans to install 50,000 centrifuges," Aghazadeh was quoted by IRNA as saying in an interview.

Asked about why he had not declared inauguration of 3,000 centrifuges at a ceremony held at Natanz on Monday to mark National Day of Nuclear Technology, he said he was concerned that mentioning numbers would cause ambiguity that Iran has plans for just 3,000 centrifuges.

"When we say we have entered industrial scale enrichment, (it means) there is no way back. Installation of centrifuges will continue steadily to reach a stage where all the 50,000 centrifuges are launched," he said.

"I was concerned the foreign media would misuse the issue and pretend that Iran's nuclear program would end up in installation of just 3,000 centrifuges," he added.

A senior Iranian nuclear official said on Monday that the number of operating centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility in central Iran would be known in 20 days.

"I don't think there's any need now to declare the number of centrifuges to which (UF6) gas has been injected, you should wait for the next 20 days when International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors present their reports," said Mohammad Saeedi, the deputy head of Iran's atomic energy organization.

Although the Iranian parliament has demanded the government reduce its cooperation with IAEA, inspectors from the UN atomic watchdog are still paying regular visits to Iranian nuclear sites.

Saeedi declined to comment on whether Iran's entry into the stage of fuel production on industrial scale meant injection of gas to 3,000 centrifuges, the report said.

When asked how many centrifuges are needed to start fuel production at the industrial level, Saeedi said, "We enter the industrial stage after passing the pilot stage."

Also on Monday, Larijani, when answering a question that if Iran had begun injecting gas into 3,000 centrifuges, said, "Yes, we have injected gas." But Larijani didn't explicitly say all the 3,000 machines had been installed.

Just a few minutes before Larijani's comments, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran had become one of the few countries that could produce nuclear fuel at "industrial level", which was opposite to the UN demand of halting enrichment activities.

Some observers have predicted that Ahmadinejad's announcement, which was opposite to the UN resolution demand of halting enrichment, would escalate the current tension between Iran and the West, just five days after the end of sailors detention crisis with Britain.

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Chilling article:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t icleId=5309

Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War

by General Leonid Ivashov

Global Research, April 9, 2007
Strategic Culture Foundation - 2007-03-30

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Analysis of the current state of the conflict with Iran shows that the world faces the possibility of a new war...


General Ivashov

The US and its allies started the psychological preparation of world public opinion for the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons to resolve 'the Iranian problem'. The US propaganda machine is working hard to create the impression that a 'surgically precise' use of the nuclear weapon with only limited consequences is possible. However, this has been known to be untrue since the 1945 US nuclear strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

After the very first nuclear strike, it will become totally impossible to prevent the use of all of the available means of mass destruction. In the situation of a mass extermination of their nations, the conflicting sides will resort to whatever means they have without limitations. Therefore, not only the nuclear arsenals of various countries, including those whose nuclear status is not recognized officially, will come into play. No doubt, chemical and biological warfare (and, generally, any poisonous substances), which can be produced on the basis of minimal industrial and economic resources, will be used.

Currently, one can assert that peace and mankind are in great danger.

Consider the military-technical aspect of the situation. Practically, the operation's objective declared by the US - destroying some 1,500 targets on the territory of Iran - cannot be accomplished by the forces already amassed for the mission. This objective can only be met if tactical nuclear munitions are used.

An examination of the military-political aspect of the matter reveals even more significant facts. The attack on Iran is not planned to include a ground offensive. Strikes on selected military and industrial installations can cause a severe damage to the Iranian defense potential and economy. Casualties are likely to be substantial, but not catastrophic from the military point of view. At the same time, it is impossible to gain control of the territory of a country as large as Iran without a ground operation. The planned offensive will entail a consolidation of forces not only in Iran, but also in other Muslim countries and among the public throughout the world. The support for the country suffering from the US-Israeli aggression will soar. Certainly, Washington is aware that the result will be not the strengthening but the loss of US positions in the world. Consequently, the goal of the US attack against Iran has to be seen in a different light. The nuclear offensive must boost the use of nuclear blackmail in global politics by the US and fundamentally transform the world order.

Further evidence of the radicalization of the goals of the US and its allies is available. The early 2007 leaks, which exposed Israel's plans to use three nukes against Iran, were quite dangerous for a country in a hostile environment, but certainly they were deliberate. They meant that the decision on the character of Israel's activity had already been made, and all that remained to be done was to influence public opinion accordingly.

The pretext for the operation against Iran does not appear serious. Judging from both the technical and the political points of view, there is no possibility of it developing nuclear weapons in the near future.

One must remember that allegations of Iraq's possessing weapons of mass destruction were used by the US as a pretext for the war against the country. As a result, Iraq was devastated, and the civilian death toll rose to hundreds of thousands, but no evidence for the claims had ever been discovered.

The really important question is not whether Iran is capable of making nuclear weapons. The only function of small stockpiles of nuclear weapons not backed by various forms of support is that of containment. The threat of a retaliation strike can stop any aggressor. As for attacking other countries and winning a nuclear war in the situation of a conflict with a coalition of major powers, this would require a potential that Iran neither has nor is going to have in the foreseeable future. The allegations that Iran can become a nuclear aggressor are absurd. Anyone having at least some theoretical knowledge of military affairs must understand this.

What is the real reason why the US is unleashing this military conflict?

The activities having consequences of global proportions can only be intended to deal with a global problem. This problem itself is by no means something secret - it is the possibility of a crash of the global financial system based on the US dollar. Currently the mass of US currency exceeds the total worth of US assets by more than a factor of ten. Everything in the US - industry, buildings, high-tech, and so on - has been mortgaged more than ten times all over the world. A debt of such proportions will never be repaid - it can only be relieved.

The dollar amounts on the accounts of individuals, organizations, and state treasuries are a virtual reality. These records are not secured by products, valuables or anything that exists in reality.

Writing-off this US indebtedness to the rest of the world would turn the majority of its population into deceived depositors. It would be the end of the well-established rule of the golden calf. The significance of the coming events is truly epic. This is why the aggressor ignores the global catastrophic consequences of its offensive. The bankrupt 'global bankers' need a force major event of global proportions to get out of the situation.

The solution is already in the plans. The US has nothing to offer the rest of the world to save the declining dollar except for military operations like the ones in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. But even these local conflicts only yield short-term effects. Something a lot greater is needed, and the need is urgent. The moment is drawing closer when the financial crisis will make the world realize that all of the US assets, all of its industrial, technological, and other potentials do not rightfully belong to the country. Then, it must be confiscated to compensate the victims, and the rights of ownership of everything bought for dollars all over the world - everything drawn from the wealth of various nations - are to be revised.

What might cause the force major event of the required scale? Everything seems to indicate that Israel will be sacrificed. Its involvement in a war with Iran - especially in a nuclear war - is bound to trigger a global catastrophe. The statehoods of Israel and Iran are based on the countries' official religions. A military conflict between Israel and Iran will immediately evolve into a religious one, a conflict between Judaism and Islam. Due to the presence of numerous Jewish and Muslim populations in the developed countries, this would make a global bloodbath inevitable. All of the active forces of most of the countries of the world would end up fighting, with almost no room for neutrality left. Judging by the increasingly massive acquisitions of the residential housing for the Israeli citizens, especially in Russia and Ukraine, a lot of people already have an idea of what the future holds. However, it is hard to imagine a quiet heaven where one might hide from the coming doom. Forecasts of the territorial distribution of the fighting, the quantities and the efficiency of the armaments involved, the profound character of the underlying roots of the conflict and the severity of the religious strife all leave no doubt that this clash will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

So far, the response of the world's major political players to the developments gives no cause for optimism. The inconsequent UN resolutions concerning Iran, the attempts to appease the aggressor who no longer disguises his intentions are reminiscent of the Munich Pact on the eve of WWII. The intense shuttle diplomacy focusing on all sorts of international problems except for the main one discussed above is also indicative of the problem. This is a usual practice on the eve of a war, aiming to provide for alliances with third-party countries or to ensure their neutrality. Such politics seeks to avert or soften the first strikes, which would be the most sudden and devastating ones.

Is it possible to prevent the bloodshed?

The only efficient argument that might stop the aggressors is the threat of their total global isolation for instigating a nuclear war. The implementation of the scenario described above can be made impossible by a complete absence of allies for the US-Israeli tandem, combined with loud public protests in the countries. Therefore, these days a definite and uncompromising stance of country leaders, governments, politicians, public figures, religious leaders, scientists, and artists with respect to the prepared nuclear aggression would be an invaluable service to mankind.

The coordinated public activities must be organized with the promptness adequate to the war-time conditions. The forces of aggression have already been amassed and concentrated at the starting positions in the state of full combat readiness. The US military do not make it a secret that everything can be a matter of weeks or even days. There are indirect indications that the US will launch a nuclear strike on Iran already in April, 2007. After the very first nuclear blast, mankind will find itself in an entirely new world, an absolutely inhumane one. The chances to prevent this outcome must be used completely.

General Leonid Ivashov is the vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs. He was the chief of the department for General affairs in the Soviet Union’s ministry of Defense, secretary of the Council of defense ministers of the Community of independant states (CIS), chief of the Military cooperation department at the Russian federation’s Ministry of defense and Joint chief of staff of the Russian armies. General Ivashof is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Global Research Articles by Leonid Ivashov
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BBC: US says Iran arming Sunni groups ~ The US military has for the first time accused Iran .....
BBC ^ | Wednesday, 11 April 2007, 18:50 GMT 19:50 UK | BBC Staff

US says Iran arming Sunni groups

US Army Major Marty Weber holds 107mm rocket round at the conference

The weapons were captured in a Sunni district last week, the US said

The US military has for the first time accused Iran of arming Sunni militants fighting in Iraq.

Sunni militants are being armed with Iranian-made munitions, US military spokesman Maj Gen William Caldwell told reporters in Baghdad.

These include mortar rounds and rocket-propelled grenades, he said.

There was no immediate reaction from the government in mainly Shia Iran which has been accused of arming fellow Shia militants in Iraq in the past.

Training claim

The weapons, which were shown at the news conference, were discovered in a car in a Sunni district of Baghdad last week, the Americans said.

Major General William Caldwell at the news conference
Gen Caldwell said Sunni militants were getting "skilled training"

Gen Caldwell said the Iranians were not only supplying weapons to unspecified groups fighting the coalition and Iraqi government forces but training them too.

"There are groups that are receiving training in Iran with the most modern weapons and munitions that are available and then being smuggled into Iraq and being utilised by these groups against the Iraqi security force and coalition forces," he said.

"That required some very skilled training to be able to use them and employ them like they were being used."

Iran threat

Gen Caldwell also accused the Iranians of helping Iraqi militants use roadside bombs, which have been used to devastating effect in ambushes on US and coalition forces.

The devices have so far killed more than 170 US soldiers since the Iraq invasion in 2003.

The BBC's Jim Muir says the Iraqi government is hoping a planned conference in Egypt next month will defuse tensions with its neighbours, and perhaps even start a reconciliation process between the Americans and Iran.

But now Iran is threatening to pull out of the talks, as they are demanding the release of five Iranian officials seized by the Americans from an office in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq in January, our correspondent says.

The US on Wednesday ruled out freeing the five, who it accuses of meddling in Iraqi affairs.

The White House also denied Iranian state television reports it tortured a diplomat held in custody for two months.

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benny balerio
Iran making battle plans

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http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=55160
Tehran believes U.S. attack coming, buying support from terror groups
Posted: April 12, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein
© 2007 WorldNetDaily.com
RAMALLAH – Iran is preparing for a possible confrontation with the United States and Israel over its nuclear program and has been training and funding Palestinian groups to carry out large-scale terror operations in the event of a U.S. or Israeli attack against Tehran, according to Palestinian security officials and terror leaders speaking to WND.
The officials and terror leaders said Iran has in recent days been funneling money to Palestinian terror groups in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to compensate for the loss of loyalty of other Palestinian terror groups receiving funds from competing sources.
The Palestinian security officials said Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah organization, in coordination with Israel-based U.S. security coordinators, has stepped up payments to Fatah militias and cells of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terror group on condition the militias and Brigades members cut contact with Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia.
(Story continues below) adsonar_placementId=1270202;adsonar_pid=663759;ads onar_ps=1451068;adsonar_zw=300;adsonar_zh=250;adso nar_jv="ads.adsonar.com";
The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Fatah's declared military wing, took responsibility together with the Islamic Jihad terror group for every suicide bombing in Israel the past two years. Israel says cells of the Brigades receive funding from and have coordinated attacks with Hezbollah.
A senior leader of the Brigades in the northern West Bank City of Nablus confirmed to WND his cell has recently received funds from Fatah to compete with financing from Iranian groups.
Palestinian security officials say Iran has been compensating for the loss of loyalty of some militias and Palestinian groups by stepping up financing for units of Islamic Jihad, Hamas' so-called military wing, and the Gaza-based Popular Resistance Committees terror organization.
"Iran is making contingency plans for war," said a security official.
Earlier this month, the Israeli Defense Forces warned Iran, Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia are preparing for a U.S.-led war this summer.
"Their preparation is defensive ahead of war. ... They fear a war initiated by the Americans because they understand that there might be an attack against Iran over the summer, but not by Israel," IDF Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin told the Knesset.
Yadlin said Iran and Syria believe a war this summer will be initiated by the U.S. and that Israel will be involved. He said Israel has been monitoring Iranian fortification of Tehran's military positions; Syrian military movements and indications of war preparation with the help of Iran; and the large-scale smuggling of Iranian-supplied weapons to Hezbollah.
Yadlin noted the war preparations are defensive. He said Israel doesn't expect Iran or Syria to start a confrontation. The military intelligence chief, though, said he feared hostilities could break out even without a U.S.-led strike because of "the involvement of many players."
WND previously reported Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, head of the IDF's intelligence research division, said the Syrian army has been placed on high alert for attacks. He said Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered increased production of long-range missiles and instructed the Syrian military to position anti-tank missiles closer to the Syrian border with Israel.
Security officials say state-run Syrian media have been broadcasting regular warlike messages unseen since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which Syria and Egypt launched invasions from the Golan and the Sinai desert.
"The tone [in Syria] is one of preparing the public for a war," said a senior security official.
Tehran and Damascus, which both support Hezbollah, have signed several military pacts.
According to Israeli intelligence officials, Iran and Syria have been smuggling mass quantities of weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The officials say Hezbollah has regained most of its strength since the militia's war last summer with the Jewish state and that the rate of weapons smuggling has nearly doubled the past few weeks.
"The Iranian weapons are coming in so furiously, there are even indications Syria is worried about Israeli deterrent action against Hezbollah," a security official said.
WND reported last month Iran has been working with Palestinian groups in Gaza to help improve the range of Palestinian rockets, smuggle in mass quantities of weapons, construct underground bunkers and build guerrilla-like armies.
Israel says Hamas is sending hundreds of Gaza-based militants to Iran for prolonged periods of advanced training and that the smuggling of weaponry into Gaza from the neighboring Egyptian Sinai desert recently increased six-fold. Israeli officials say Palestinian terror groups were taking advantage of a cease-fire signed in November to enhance rockets and create a complex system of underground war bunkers.
Alongside the reports of Arab war preparations, Israel has also been taking some defensive measures. Last month the Jewish state engaged in a nationwide wartime drill, acting out responses to various wartime scenarios, including salvos of chemical-tipped missiles and major terrorist attacks. It was the largest war drill held in Israel since its establishment in 1948. Israeli government spokesmen said the drills were to test lessons learned during last summer's war against the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
Israeli security sources also confirmed to WND stepped-up training schedules for IDF reservist troops. They say the training is not related to any expected confrontations, but is in response to internal military investigations that found reservists were not properly trained for the Lebanon war.
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benny balerio
Russia: U.S. still preparing
cruise missile strike on Iran



SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, April 11, 2007

MOSCOW — The United States is planning to launch a war with Iran with a salvo of cruise missiles against military and other strategic facilities, a Russian official said.


A leading Russian analyst close to the government of President Vladimir Putin said the Bush administration has been preparing a major air strike against Iran. The analyst said the Iranian release of 15 British Marines abducted in early April has hampered but not canceled U.S. attack plans.
"Preparations to strike Iran's strategic facilities continue," Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, said. "Three major groups of U.S. forces are still in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Altogether, they have up to 450 cruise missiles on alert."

[On Tuesday, the London-based A-Sharq Al Awsat daily quoted French military sources that projected a U.S. strike on Iran in 2007, Middle East Newsline reported. The sources said Iran could be making a major mistake in underestimating U.S. intentions and capabilities.]

The assessment was the latest by government-financed Russian military analysts that warned of a U.S. war against Iran. Over the last two weeks, some analysts have raised the prospect of a U.S. air strike over the next few weeks.

"Combat nuclear weapons may be used for bombing," Ivashov said. "This will result in radioactive contamination of the Iranian territory, which could possibly spread to neighboring countries."

On April 8, Ivashov, who heads a government think tank, told the Interfax-AVN news agency that the U.S. Navy would be the lead service in the military campaign against Iran. He said the attack would begin with a salvo of advanced cruise missiles.


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"Military operations against Teheran will begin with the launch of at least two unexpected strikes using Tomahawk cruise missiles and air power in order to disable Iran's air defense capabilities," Ivashov said.
The general said the U.S. military plans to employ up to 150 fighter-jets in the two air strikes on Iran. In the first stage, he said, the United States would destroy Iran's air defense umbrella, including the new Russian-origin TOR-M1 mobile surface-to-air missile systems.

Ivashov said the U.S. campaign would target command centers, air defense batteries, naval vessels and air bases. In the second stage, the general said, the U.S. military would target Iran's nuclear facilities.

"Nuclear facilities may be secondary targets," Ivashov said. "According to expert assessments, at least 20 such facilities need to be destroyed in order to stop Iran's nuclear program."

Ivashov said Iran could respond by firing the Shihab-3E intermediate-range missile toward Israel. He said this could result in Israeli nuclear retaliation.

"If Iran strikes back at Israel with missiles, Tel Aviv is likely to use nuclear weapons on Iran," Ivashov said. "Development of the situation would undermine stability not only in the Middle East, but also in the entire world."


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duncdrewnoah
QUOTE(benny balerio @ Apr 12 2007, 08:34 AM) [snapback]109157[/snapback]

Russia: U.S. still preparing
cruise missile strike on Iran



SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, April 11, 2007

MOSCOW — The United States is planning to launch a war with Iran with a salvo of cruise missiles against military and other strategic facilities, a Russian official said.


A leading Russian analyst close to the government of President Vladimir Putin said the Bush administration has been preparing a major air strike against Iran. The analyst said the Iranian release of 15 British Marines abducted in early April has hampered but not canceled U.S. attack plans.
"Preparations to strike Iran's strategic facilities continue," Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, said. "Three major groups of U.S. forces are still in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Altogether, they have up to 450 cruise missiles on alert."

[On Tuesday, the London-based A-Sharq Al Awsat daily quoted French military sources that projected a U.S. strike on Iran in 2007, Middle East Newsline reported. The sources said Iran could be making a major mistake in underestimating U.S. intentions and capabilities.]

The assessment was the latest by government-financed Russian military analysts that warned of a U.S. war against Iran. Over the last two weeks, some analysts have raised the prospect of a U.S. air strike over the next few weeks.

"Combat nuclear weapons may be used for bombing," Ivashov said. "This will result in radioactive contamination of the Iranian territory, which could possibly spread to neighboring countries."

On April 8, Ivashov, who heads a government think tank, told the Interfax-AVN news agency that the U.S. Navy would be the lead service in the military campaign against Iran. He said the attack would begin with a salvo of advanced cruise missiles.


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"Military operations against Teheran will begin with the launch of at least two unexpected strikes using Tomahawk cruise missiles and air power in order to disable Iran's air defense capabilities," Ivashov said.
The general said the U.S. military plans to employ up to 150 fighter-jets in the two air strikes on Iran. In the first stage, he said, the United States would destroy Iran's air defense umbrella, including the new Russian-origin TOR-M1 mobile surface-to-air missile systems.

Ivashov said the U.S. campaign would target command centers, air defense batteries, naval vessels and air bases. In the second stage, the general said, the U.S. military would target Iran's nuclear facilities.

"Nuclear facilities may be secondary targets," Ivashov said. "According to expert assessments, at least 20 such facilities need to be destroyed in order to stop Iran's nuclear program."

Ivashov said Iran could respond by firing the Shihab-3E intermediate-range missile toward Israel. He said this could result in Israeli nuclear retaliation.

"If Iran strikes back at Israel with missiles, Tel Aviv is likely to use nuclear weapons on Iran," Ivashov said. "Development of the situation would undermine stability not only in the Middle East, but also in the entire world."


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there is absolutley NO Way the US will put boots on the ground in Iran...airstrikes, not anytime soon but possible at some point
benny balerio
Analysis: Don't underestimate Syria's military
By YAAKOV KATZ


While the Knesset heard about potential scenarios for reaching peace with Damascus on Thursday, senior defense officials warned of an unprecedented military buildup in Syria and said that prevailing in a war with Israel's northeastern neighbor would not be as simple as some might have been led to believe.
Following the Second Lebanon War, IDF Military Intelligence noticed a change within the Syrian military. Syria feels empowered by Hizbullah's surprising success last summer and Damascus now believes it can use Hizbullah-like tactics in a future confrontation with Israel and possibly even defeat the once-thought-to-be invincible IDF.
"For years we thought that the IDF had a clear upper hand over Syria's military," a top official told The Jerusalem Post. "After the war in Lebanon we now know that this assumption was not accurate."
Syria has emphasized missile development in recent months. According to Western sources, Syria has the ability to independently manufacture Scud missiles, and it has 300 of them deployed just north of the demilitarized zone in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights.
A division of some 10,000 troops is responsible for operating the missiles, which include an small number of Scud D's with a range of 700 kilometers and said to be capable of carrying nonconventional warheads. Syria has close to 30 launchers for its Scud missiles, according to foreign sources.
Syria keeps the projectiles in bunkers at several locations; most are in a valley near Hama, where it has built a missile electronic and assembly facility.
Syria has a massive military divided into 12 divisions and totaling close to 400,000 soldiers at full mobilization.
One of the divisions is made up of 10,000 elite commandos, a formidable force that would serve as Syria's first line in an offensive against the IDF.
Since the Second Lebanon War, Syria has established new commando units and is said to have increased urban and guerrilla warfare training.
"Syria saw the difficulty the IDF had during the fighting inside the southern Lebanese villages and now the military there wants to draw us - in the event of a war - into battles in built-up areas where they think they will have the upper hand," explained a source in the IDF Northern Command.
Over the last year, the Syrian military has made only two major acquisitions: a number of advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems called Stretlets. It has not received new fighter jets, tanks or armored personnel carriers for a number of years.
According to Yiftah Shapir - a researcher with the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University - the Syrian military plans to use short-range Katyushas alongside the long-range ballistic Scuds in any future conflict with Israel.
"Syria was impressed by Hizbullah's strategic success, with its use of small rockets and Israel's inability to neutralize them," Shapir said. "This is a weapon that is not traditionally used in conventional wars, but can be."
While Ibrahim "Abe" Suleiman - the Syrian national who appeared before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Thursday - might be right in his prediction that peace between Israel and Syria is possible, war, officials said, was no longer impossible.
Both militaries have raised their level of alert along the border and while the IDF has increased its presence on the Golan Heights - mostly with troops who are training - the Syrians have also moved units as well as military infrastructure closer to the border.
In satellite images broadcast this week on CBN News in the US, reporter Chris Mitchell revealed Syria's three major missile sites. One site - referred to as the "heart" of Syria's missile program - is in Hama, where a weapons factory is surrounded by more than 30 hardened concrete bunkers that house multiple launchers and missiles. In just minutes, experts said, these launchers could deliver more than a ton of nonconventional warheads anywhere in Israel.

Another missile site near Homs contains a previously undisclosed chemical warhead facility where a drive-through building leads to a facility where warheads are installed on ballistic missiles.

These images do not necessarily indicate that Syria plans to attack Israel, but they do send a clear message to the IDF and the Israeli leadership: Do not underestimate us.
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benny balerio
Russia on the march - again (The New Cold War)

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Russia on the march - again

By Con Coughlin
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 13/04/2007

The new Cold War won't be like the last one, with massed tank divisions stretched across the German plain ready to repulse a Communist invasion of Western Europe. No, the looming power struggle between resurgent Russian nationalis