INTL - A Special Survival Booklet for Nuclear War

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A Special Survival Booklet for Nuclear War



Politics As Usual
By Zev Eliezrov Wed, December 20, 2006, 11:16 pm





A SANE Reader from Israel, a well placed strategic and policy advisor, has decided it is time to write a short survival manual for the citizens of Israel (and by extension, for the citizens of the US). We thought it well worth our attention.


(The version which follows is modified slightly from the original one published at the News First Class website, in Hebrew, Dec. 19, 2006)




The bomb that fell on Hiroshima destroyed 68 percent of the city's buildings, and killed about one-third of the residents, with thousands more dying from radiation poisoning afterwards. The nuclear bomb that destroyed Nagasaki killed about 78,000 people, and more afterwards; every building within a kilometer of the blast was completely destroyed.


Should the Iranian and Korean nuclear bombs be merely as powerful as the bombs that hit Japan, which is a far-from-certain assumption, an estimated 125,000 people, at least, will be killed on the spot when Iran bombs Tel Aviv sometime within the next three or four years. When the Iranian bomb, or the North Korean, is used against Washington, D.C., a safe guess is that about 200,000 people will be killed immediately.


After the bombing of Nagasaki, the Japanese evacuated the survivors who were burned, which suggests that Israel should quickly replace its Home Front Military Commander, who left over a million residents of Israel's north to flee on their own during last summer's bombardment by Hezbollah, and similarly, one hopes that FEMA is quickly overhauled, before the New Orleans fiasco replays in Washington, New York and Chicago.


Because the Israeli government is doing nothing to prepare its citizens for the coming disaster, and neither is the American government getting ready, we offer here a list of steps to be taken by nearby citizens during a nuclear attack.


Survival Guide:


Þ It is preferable to wear white, as thermal heat passes more freely through dark clothing.


Þ Though lead is considered a good protective barrier, Beta particles hitting lead form X-rays; thus it is preferable to coat the lead with aluminum foil; actually it pays to coat anything you are hiding behind with aluminum foil, wood or plastic.


Þ Gamma rays "know" how to pass around corners, thus it is preferable to hide in a shelter that is reached by turning several 90 degree angles.


Þ Swallow potassium iodide to avoid thyroid cancer.


Ø Because there are many kinds of burns and poisoning, summarizing them succinctly is difficult. In brief, if one detects the signs of poisoning (nausea, etc.) within a few minutes, a quarter of an hour or sometimes half an hour – his chances are slim. But if the symptoms appear between one and six hours after exposure, his chances are better. In any case, the symptoms should disappear after a day or two, for a week or two, and then reappear; of those who will die, most will die within a month.


Ø While exposure to the powerful radiation from the blast is most dangerous, there is also danger in prolonged exposure to radiation. Thus one should try to get to a clean area and to change clothes. While it is recommended to wash with soap and water, at least in the case of Israel, it is unclear where the water will come from; the national water monopoly has not made any plans to protect its supply from radiation. Still, if one manages to get to a clean area and wash, this is preferable, but one should not rub the burned and peeling skin too hard, or allow the dirt pass into one's open wounds.


Þ Of course, to increase the odds of survival, it would be preferable to be rid of Iran before Iran is rid of us.


Þ But to do that, one must first be rid of the government of Israel and the conceptions controlling the government in the US.


§ In Israel, the prime minister and his cabinet, and the military brass, proclaim and may even believe that Israel won last summer's war in Lebanon and that the Israeli army functioned well; both the Israeli and American governments think that the way to solve the problems of our region are to return to the Road Map and to offer the gangs of murderers surrounding Israel a little more territory or economic aid, because, as Israeli leaders have been repeating ad nauseam for the past decade, there is no military solution, not now, later or ever, here, there or anywhere, and as Olmert and Livni and before them Barak and Sharon and before them the Jews of the 1930s say and said, when faced with attacks, "Restraint is strength"; and so retreats become "disengagement," and surrender is victory and war is peace and as long as we are on this slope, "Work makes us free."


§ In America of course it is all about spreading “democracy”. This theory might be summed up as, “What’s good for the goose must be good for the wolf.” The problem is that the multi-cultural Open Society democracy invites the wolf to lunch with the American goose, gander, and goslings.


§ And let us in Israel pray we are freed from this our government and our nuclear enemies before these enemies free us from our bodies, as our previous enemies did, those accursed enemies who proclaimed that "Work makes free."


§ And let us pray the American president decides to win this war the old-fashioned way, before Iran and North Korea, not the world's most rational or restrained regimes, decide to do the winning.


http://www.saneworks.us/print.php?aid=315&cid=11
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.............................................................benny

Gog-Magog and The Destruction of Damascus
by Michael G. Mickey

(12-23-06)

Reminiscent of many, many commentaries I've written in recent years relating to evidence that is rapidly amassing indicating that the prophesied battle of Ezekiel 38 & 39 may be on the verge of fulfillment, author Joel Rosenberg recently pointed out that a north African alliance with Russia and Iran is emerging, laying more groundwork for fulfillment of the prophesied Gog-Magog battle to occur, which will involve the following nations:

Gog - Most agree this is a reference to Russia.
Meshech - Most associate this with modern day Turkey, ancient Anatolia, but some say it refers to the Moscow area.
Tubal - Most associate this with modern day Turkey, ancient Anatolia.
Persia - modern Iran
Ethiopia
Libya
Gomer - eastern Europe or Turkey
Togarmah - southeastern Europe or Turkey
Not only is a north African alliance with Russia and Iran emerging, I've highlighted in the past that Turkey and Russia have grown closer as well in recent years. Now, as we see in a Middle East Newsline article, Iran (Persia) is bettering its relations with Turkey, specifically in relation to "security cooperation agreements." The picture grows more clear by the day, doesn't it?

Adding fuel to the growing fire against the nation of Israel represented by all the nations above drawing closer to one another, the United Nations, as seen in a Jerusalem Newswire commentary, recently opened an office in Vienna where "any Arab who believes Israel’s security barrier has infringed on his/her rights will now be able to register for compensation." This, of course, places added pressure on Israel to remove its separation barrier which, despite hatred of it by the international community, has had a major impact on terrorism in the region, limiting Israel's enemies from successfully conducting bombings inside the Jewish state.

Interestingly, as we look at Bible prophecy and the international community's dislike of Israel's separation barrier, a possible picture of what is going to occur comes into view. In Bible prophecy it appears that Israel's separation barrier is going to be removed prior to the Gog-Magog attack taking place. This new U.N. / anti-Israel office may play into that coming to pass! Personally, I suspect that the prophesied Antichrist, upon his entrance into the diplomatic negotiations that will bring his seven-year covenant of peace into existence between Israel and her enemies, will make dismantling of the separation barrier a condition of peace that the following passages of Scripture be fulfilled (precisely as written) in the early Tribulation Period to come, as a direct result of Israel's enemies listed above seeing and seizing an opportunity to strike Israel at a moment when its guard is down:

Ezekiel 38:10-11: Thus saith the Lord GOD; It shall also come to pass, [that] at the same time shall things come into thy mind, and thou shalt think an evil thought: And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates,

Is Gog-Magog coming into view? There seems to be less resistance to it taking place as prophesied all the time so I have to believe we are getting very close to Ezekiel 38 & 39's prophecies being literally fulfilled! And then there's the prophesied destruction of Damascus described in Isaiah 17:1.

Isaiah 17:1: The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.

Recently, Bill Wilson of Koenig's International News noted that Syrian president Bashar Assad is in Moscow seeking arms to bolster his army and Hezbollah, adding that Assad reportedly has half a billion dollars of Iranian money to buy weapons from Russian president Vladimir Putin. This Wilson believes may play into fulfillment of Ezekiel 38 & 39, as well as Isaiah 17:1 and I wholeheartedly concur.

Sooner or later, something incredible is going to occur that will shake the entire world! There is little reason to suspect fulfillment of the prophecies mentioned within this commentary is scheduled to occur in the distant future as we look at the BIG picture of the times we're living in. All evidence, from my perspective, seems to indicate we're nearing a defining moment in God's plan for mankind.

One defining moment I believe is potentially very near is Damascus' destruction, perhaps even more so than the Gog-Magog battle to come. Why do I say that? Because Syria isn't referred to as a nation that will strike at Israel in the prophesied Gog-Magog attack to come, which is far more than odd to me, especially at this time when Syria "wants a strategic air defense system that would present a major threat to Israeli warplanes", as seen in a Middle East Newsline story. I think Syria is seriously considering war with Israel, even as I type this commentary. Why else would they be obtaining such a system at this time when so much hype has been raised concerning Israel's possession of the Golan Heights, a long-standing bone of contention between the two?

As we see in an Israel National News article, Israeli Mossad Chief Meir Dagan believes "Syria is more prepared to enter into a conflict with Israel since the Jewish State’s failure to win a decisive victory against Hizbullah terrorists in the second Lebanon War this summer." The battle and the international community's subsequent willingness to allow Hezbollah to survive and even rearm itself has emboldened Damascus greatly, in my opinion, perhaps too much for its own good!

Quoting Israeli media, Stan Goodenough of Jerusalem Newswire is reporting that "Syria has taken a leaf out of the Hizb’allah war manual and is laying the groundwork to draw Israel into a war of attrition."

"Up to now", Goodenough writes, "the Israel-Syria frontier has been the quietest of all Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War."

Conditions on the Israel-Syria frontier, however, may well be about to change. When it does change, are things going to quickly get out of hand, ultimately resulting in the destruction of Damascus, the tourism capital of international terrorism? We'll have to wait and see, but there seems to be little reason to suspect that Gog-Magog and the destruction of Damascus isn't going to happen in our lifetime, especially at this time when one of Gog-Magog's ringleaders, Iran, is openly - and repeatedly - predicting that the hour of Israel's destruction is at hand.

Keep looking up, Christians! Jesus Christ is coming soon!

........................................................benny

Comprehensive
We knew the talks were coming. Today's news, nevertheless, still caught me by surprise. Evidently, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas have finally sat down to talk peace Read about it here I Here I And here. The full nature of the talks are still sketchy. That they even happened, however, may speak volumes.

Today we also learned the UN Security Council was finally successful passing a Resolution imposing sanctions on Iran Read about it here. What brought the so-called "P Five" nations -- the US, Britain, France, Russia and China -- together on the Iranian issue is still sketchy. That it happened, however, may also speak volumes.

It's a mistake to see the events now unfolding as unconnected. It took something to bring together Olmert and Abbas and something too the P Five. Today's buzzword on Middle East peace is "comprehensive." Being in insurance, I know what the word means. In insurance it means combining many different coverages into one, comprehensive policy. And, that's exactly what the international community is trying to do -- combine all the different problems that are perceived to be preventing peace in the Middle East into one, comprehensive peace plan.

If you recall, only a few days ago British Prime Minister Tony Blair was in the very same residence in Jerusalem meeting with Prime Minister Olmert. In the press conference that followed Olmert said Blair had put forward some new initiatives -- things Olmert said he couldn't talk about. Also, if you recall, just a few days earlier, Abbas surprised everybody by suddenly deciding to confront Hamas by calling for new Palestinian elections.

On his trip to revive the Middle East peace process, Israel was not the only place that Blair visited. Blair also visited Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Gaza and the United Arab Emirates. And, if you recall, earlier the same month, at a joint press conference with President George Bush, it was announced that Blair and Bush had agreed to a new approached in Iraq, and that Blair would be carrying the new plan to the Middle East.

Yes, I know what comprehensive means. But, in the auto insurance policies that I sold, there's something that a comprehensive policy doesn't cover. And, according to my understanding of Bible prophecy, that's the coverage that may soon be needed.

That coverage is called "collision."

.......................................................................benny

Tomorrow,..It will be one year ago that I began the "Isaiah 17;1 News Update" topic. I knew that this prophecy would play a big part in the end times drama.And today,.....It looks as though that it will come to pass very very soon. There are some on this forum that do not believe that the Lord will come for his Bride in our lifetime. The prophecy is a sign unto them that the Lord Jesus is coming very very soon. This prophecy reveals that "WE" are the generation of the Messiah.......The Word of God says that That Day will not catch us unawares....That "we' will know the general time era. .........That that day shall not catch the Bride by surprise. So with that in mind,...I curiously wonder how is it that some do not believe that our Lords coming for His bride is not within our lifetime?.......The signs are screaming at us from all directions....How is it that they do not believe?.....What are they thinking?........What is it that they think must happen before they are convinced that "WE" are living in the last moments as the Word of God has described? Well I just thought to post what has been going thru my mind .....sorta thinking out loud.........I wish all of you a very merry Christmas.....and all that "WE" say and do......May The Lord receive all the Praise and Glory.............................I Love You all!........................benny

Making Sense Of The Crumbling Dollar

Of all the threats we track here at Rapture Ready, the fate of the U.S. dollar has to be the strangest issue. Apart from maybe a pending war involving Israel, I've never seen a situation so dire, yet so oblivious to the general population.

America has a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world. We import consumer goods, and we export I.O.U.s to our trading partners. Up until now, lender nations have been content with taking our dollars and debt instruments as payment. Eventually, however, the situation will reach a breaking point.

A chart of our trade deficit looks like a classic spike and crash pattern. In 2004, our gap was $617.6 billion. Last year, it reached $725.8 billion. With the newly released figures for the second quarter of 2006 adding up to a record of $225.6, we are on track to have a single year, where we incur a trillion dollar trade deficit.

The strain of luring more money from abroad to fund the gap is starting to show in the dollar’s value. In 2006, The dollar has dropped 9.5 percent against the euro. Since the euro was introduced, the dollar has lost 35 percent of its value against that currency.

Business leaders are finally becoming aware of the dollars downward trend. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said the U.S. currency may keep falling until the deficit shrinks. The dollar dropped the most versus the euro in a single week, following his remarks.

“The knee-jerk reaction is to sell the dollar with a widening trade deficit,” said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets LLC in New York. “What if foreign financing is cut off? This will weigh on the dollar in short-term.”

Growing unpopularity of the U.S. has created more problems for the dollar. Iran announced that it was ordering its central bank to direct foreign transactions And to transform the state's dollar-denominated assets held abroad to the single European currency instead of the U.S. currency.

"The government has ordered the central bank to replace the dollar with the Euro to limit the problems of the executive organs in commercial transactions," Iranian spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham told reporters.

The United Arab Emirates and Venezuela are two other oil rich nations that plan to put more of their funds into the European currency.

With the trade numbers having become so large in scale, it's hard to imagine a soft landing for the dollar. The reason why I look for a crash is because the support for the greenback is now almost totally based on a religious cultic-like devotion. Once the almighty dollar is found to be fallible, its followers will lose faith and seek a new god.

Bible prophecy almost requires that America suffer a major economic setback. In the last days, Europe will be the lead political and financial powerhouse, God’s prophetic word indicates.

I have often wondered if this coming calamity is in some way part of God's planning for the rapture. If the dollar is able to hold on until the occurrence of that great event, there is no doubt in my mind that the rapture would guarantee an massive implosion.

This week I read that many financial bankers had received huge Christmas bonuses for a record year on Wall Street. The head of Goldman Sachs got a $53.4M present in his stocking. With the long-term financial fate of the dollar in such doubt, my only recommendation for these people would be to spend the money fast.

All Christians should have their focus on a currency that is not at risk of sudden depreciation. The Bible plainly tells us that the works we do in the Lord Jesus' name is our only possession that will retain its value. As we enter into the new year, I encourage everyone to seek out ways to contribute to the Kingdom of God.

--Todd


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The Visitation
One, solitary birth is the basis upon which the future hangs for every person ever to enter this mortal realm we call Planet Earth. How each man, woman, and child who has reached age to understand the Salvation issue views this visitation determines where their home will be for Eternity.

Many believe Jesus was sent by God to show us how to live a good life. Some believe He was a great prophet and teacher. Others believe He was a philosopher, right up there with Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, and the rest. A few among the billions who have lived since His birth have believed Jesus is the Son of God, but perhaps one among others of a created angelic order assigned to influence the affairs of mankind. Still fewer believe that He was who He claimed to be –the only begotten Son of god – the way, the truth, and the life (John 14: 6).

No birth of any individual has ever caused the excitement and controversy that the birth of Jesus has engendered. Was this baby a stranger of an other-worldly order, sent to earth to provide moral guidance? Was Jesus sent to philosophize on the vicissitudes of the human existence? Or, was this visitation something more?

Jesus came into the world through the Jewish Race. Only those inalterably antagonistic to the truth of history will argue against that. So, we should examine this birth –this visitation—through the prism of Israel, and that Jewish nation’s dealings with the one called Jesus.

Although there are other histories about the era, the Bible’s historical account has, through archaeological unveilings, proven time after time to be accurate in details concerning matters surrounding Jesus, the Jews, and Israel. (One such example is the relatively recent discovery of artifacts and evidence that one called Pontius Pilate ruled the area of Judea during the times attributed to Jesus’ crucifixion. Until the discovery, Pilate’s existence as an historical figure was seriously doubted, even denied by many historians.)

We can know the accuracy of how the nation Israel –the religious Jews in particular-- dealt with the one called Jesus. We can know with assurance that He performed miracles, and claimed to be God, Himself, by using the Bible’s documented veracity as proof that Jesus was born exactly as foretold in detail by Old Testament prophets. These Jewish religious leaders’ treatment of Christ’s first coming as a baby, lays groundwork for understanding what that first visitation means to the souls of all mankind. Understanding that first coming, also will help frame the vital importance of how each of us view Christ’s prophesied Second Advent.

Tragically, the pious Jewish leaders refused to accept that Jesus was the Christ, the Messiah sent from Jehovah to be their King, and their Savior. They rejected Him, despite the precise prophecies He fulfilled in His coming, and His Ministry. They chose to have Rome rather than Jesus rule over them. The results of their rejection continues to reverberate, not only in the region called the Holy Land, but throughout the entire world. Armageddon is building, it’s nucleus grounded in Satanic rage against God’s chosen people.

Jesus wept over God’s people of Israel and the city, Jerusalem. He foresaw times ahead that would eventuate in calamity for them.

“And when he was come near, he beheld the city, and wept over it, Saying, If thou hadst known, even thou, at least in this thy day, the things which belong unto thy peace! but now they are hid from thine eyes. For the days shall come upon thee, that thine enemies shall cast a trench about thee, and compass thee round, and keep thee in on every side, And shall lay thee even with the ground, and thy children within thee; and they shall not leave in thee one stone upon another; because thou knewest not the time of thy visitation.” (Lk 19: 41-44)

Christ’s first visitation was ignored and scoffed at by the religious leaders of the time. Their choice was their own way, rather than god’s Way. Each preferred to do what was right in his own eyes. True to Jesus’ prophecy, Jerusalem was laid waste, the temple destroyed, and the Jews scattered to every part of the world. Genocide was committed against them to the point their very existence as a race was threatened.

Israel continues to pay the price. Anti-Semitism is growing in Europe, and around the world. The nation is becoming marginalized, just as the prophet Zechariah forewarned in Zech chapters. 12 and 14.

But there is a bright day coming for that people –those whom accept the Messiah’s second visitation. Paul the apostle warned believers not to feel superior to Jews. He forecast a coming time when Israel would shine among the nations.

“For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fullness of the Gentiles be come in.” (Rom 11: 25)

God foretold, again through the prophet Zechariah, that believing Israel will yet recognize the Lord Jesus --upon His second visitation to Planet Earth.

“And I will pour upon the house of David, and upon the inhabitants of Jerusalem, the spirit of grace and of supplications: and they shall look upon me whom

they have pierced, and they shall mourn for him, as one mourneth for [his] only [son], and shall be in bitterness for him, as one that is in bitterness for [his] firstborn.” (Zech. 12: 10)

The Apostle Paul foretold: “And so all Israel shall be saved: as it is written, There shall come out of Sion the Deliverer, and shall turn away ungodliness from Jacob.” (Rom 11: 26)

A parallel can be drawn between the ecclesiastical Jewish leaders of the time of Jesus’ first visitation, and many among mainstream evangelical clergy today. Neither group considered nor considers prophecies of Christ’s coming as relevant to their times. Their attitude is much akin to the one described by the Apostle Peter.

“Knowing this first, that there shall come in the last days scoffers, walking after their own lusts, And saying, Where is the promise of his coming? for since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they were from the beginning of the creation.” (2 Pet 3: 3-4)

This sin-darkened sphere is on the brink of another Visitation. Unlike the first, when He came as a humble baby, who was the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world, He will come the next time as the King of all kings, and the Lord of all Lords. Let us who claim Christ as Savior heed His words about His coming again. And the first phase of that Second Coming will be unannounced, and in the twinkling of an eye –the Rapture!

“Watch ye therefore: for ye know not when the master of the house cometh, at even, or at midnight, or at the cockcrowing, or in the morning: Lest coming suddenly he find you sleeping. And what I say unto you I say unto all, Watch.” (Mark 13: 35-37)

................................................................benny

Yes Jesus is coming soon...Praise the Lord our God.

I too beleive that Damascas may be the last miracle shown before the Return of Jesus.
This I beleive will be a miracle SHOWN to the Jews first and all the World will see the Power of God...when he protects the Jews...possibly the last great sign shown to bring in the last of the Gentiles and the Reedeming Holy Spirit of Christ our Lord to the Jews. All the world will wonder, all eyes will see the Power of our Father...and yet their will still be those whom mock and disbeleive even when they are shown the Glorious Power of our Risen LORD JESUS CHRIST. So in these times, let us pray for ourselves to always trust in his Power and Goodness, that he wishes none to perish...but have everlasting life IN HIM....and we are to pray for the enemies that they beleive and receive the grace of God...and turn away from their ungodly lusts.
Let us all stay together in prayer, interceed for the lost and thirsty, be a candle in the dark...reach out beyond our comfort zone...for to work for the LORD is the only work that will enrich us in his mighty love and grace. Oh Father thou art Worthy.
God's blessings to you benny...your posts are very informative and holy spirit filled. Let us Praise Jesus in the storm, trust in him alone, we want to always do his will for his glory...to be a watchmen on the wall, to profess the Kingdom of his Glorious Appearing...and patiently Wait upon his word. His WORD will not come back void. We pray for Syria, Damascus that they heed the warning. If God was a mean God would he warn his children. Wake up Damascus the LORD our God is talking to you...why? Because he Loves all his children...as we should love God and ourselves and each other not willing that any suffer such atrocities of war and famine, let us stand united in the only Kingdom that will not fall and that is Christ Jesus, thy ROCK we stand for all other is sinking sand...don't doubt GOD's WORD. AMEN

And loved not their lives, for the only life worth living is for Christ our LORD, our Life, your Life, the Breath of all Life.
Lord lead us all in your peace...for they say Peace Peace and there is no Peace...the only Peace is you Jesus.
Great is thy Faithfulness, all Power, all Glory, forever and ever Amen.

Israel's FM Livni Warns EU of Iranian Threat



"There are some who perceive the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as a single, isolated, and somehow manageable problem. They are deeply, and dangerously, mistaken."

(IFM) Following is the address by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to the international workshop titled, “Israel and the European Union in the Enlarged Neighborhood” in Mishkenot Sha'ananim, Jerusalem.

Distinguished Ambassadors and Guests,

I would like to express my appreciation to the various partners who helped put this event together, among them:

The Delegation of the European Commission to the State of Israel,
The Konrad Adenauer Foundation,
Ben-Gurion University – The Center for the study of European Politics and Society,
Bar-Ilan University – The Center for International Communications and Policy,
The Jean Monnet Workshop,
and members of my ministry

This international workshop, entitled “Israel and the European Union in the Enlarged Neighborhood,” is most timely, as it has been organized precisely when a renewed thinking process is taking place in both sides, Israel and the EU, regarding the most appropriate formula for our future relations. It is also most appropriate, taking place on the eve of the German presidency of the EU.

Israel and the EU share common moral principles, heritage and tradition, values of Democracy, the respect of human rights, and the rule of law.

The EU expressed this special relationship in its declaration, adopted during a previous German presidency of the EU, in the conclusions of the Essen European Council from December 1994, stating as follows:

“The European Council considers that Israel, on account of its high level of economic development, should enjoy special status in its relations with the EU on the basis of reciprocity and common interest…."

Israel, since its early days, recognized the importance of European integration, based on these shared values and on the belief that close cooperation between democratic states is the best guarantee for peace, stability, economic and social prosperity, and cultural pluralism.

As a result of our special understanding, partnership, and common heritage, our relations have developed significantly. The European Union has become Israel’s largest trading partner. We have witnessed a deepening of the relations in the field of Scientific and Technological research. There has been important progress in the development of mutual agreements, first and foremost the Association Agreement, which entered into force in June 2000, replacing the previous cooperation agreement signed more than 30 years ago, in 1975.

Further accomplishments have also been the association of Israel, as a first non-European country, to the Framework Program for R&D and the agreement on the participation of Israel in the development of Galileo – the European global satellite navigation system.

The common strategic challenges have brought us even closer. Our political strategic dialogue has developed significantly in the past few years, and we can see the fruits of this dialogue in our increased political and strategic coordination and cooperation.

As testimony to our close political and strategic cooperation, I should mention the scope and depth of the Israeli-European contact just over this past week. Over the past week, I visited France for bilateral discussions and met with the president and the foreign minister.

Over the past week, I hosted in Israel the foreign minister of Austria, the foreign minister of Germany, the candidate for the presidency in France, and EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Javier Solana. As these visits demonstrate, we have many issues of common interest to discuss.

The developments in the political and strategic dialogue between Israel and the EU has led also to increased European involvement in the regional political issues, including the efforts to stabilize the situation in South Lebanon, in Gaza, and in the efforts to challenge the Iranian nuclear threat.

This increased European involvement in the regional issues position Israel and the EU as close strategic partners, cooperating and standing together in facing the common threats which challenge us as a democratic community.

In Lebanon, as part of our efforts to bring about a full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, Israel not only agreed but even led the idea of increased European involvement. This has led to the deployment of European troops on Lebanese soil, leading the international force in these efforts.

I should stress that these forces are not there to defend Israel or promote pure Israeli interests, but to stabilize Lebanon and help the Lebanese government exercise its control and authority on all parts of Lebanese territory. These interests are shared by Israel and the EU, as well as the Lebanese government led by [Fouad] Siniora.

The most recent war in Lebanon was not a conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Though the war took place in Lebanon, it was the case of a rogue state, Iran, and its well-armed proxy, Hizbullah, taking advantage of a weak state, Lebanon, in an attempt to impose their agenda on the region.

In this challenge posed to us by the forces of extremism, Israel and the EU and the entire moderate community stand together.

Lebanon is still in a crisis situation. The forces of extremism, led by Syria and Iran, wish to topple the Siniora government, and to prevent justice in the form of a genuine international tribunal to investigate the assassination of [former Lebanese prime minister Rafik] Hariri. So also they wish to prevent full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, in order to continue the smuggling in of weapons and the destabilization of the entire region.

This is a critical test for Lebanon and the international community. Success in the full and immediate implementation of resolution 1701, including the release of the Israeli hostages and the proper enforcement of the arms embargo, will be a success for the forces of moderation in the region. By the same token, failure will carry a high price.

So also in Gaza we have facilitated increased European involvement. Israel and the EU exchange views frequently, coordinate activity, and presently European forces monitor the Rafah crossing. Here again we see a bond between the camp of the moderates against the forces of extremism.

We face a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority, refusing to adopt the three fundamental requirements of: renouncing terror, recognizing the right of Israel to exist, and acceptance of all previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements. These three requirements are fundamental. They are not an obstacle to peace or to the establishment of a responsible Palestinian state, but they are a crucial ingredient for their realization. They should not be open either to negotiation or to vague formulations.

Israel and the EU, together with moderate Palestinians, share the vision of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security. At the same time, Israel and the EU share the understanding that we cannot accept a situation in which a terrorist organization is regarded as a legitimate political partner, part of the governing entity of that country, while continuing its involvement in terror.

Therefore, we cannot compromise on the three requirements vis a vis the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority, but we can and do work together in strengthening the moderates, including the presidency of Abu Mazen.

The recently declared cease-fire is a further attempt to stabilize the situation, and form a basis for further cooperation in the future. Although there have been many Palestinian violations of this cease-fire, Israel continues to act with restraint, in order to promote hope in the region.

There is hope, due to the strong message sent out by the EU and the international community, insisting on the implementation of the three requirements and coming to terms with Israel. Due to this firm and uncompromising stand, there is hope for positive change.

We acknowledge EU’s principled stand on this issue, and regard it as vitally important to continue in this spirit. The EU is a key player in facing the challenge posed by the nuclear aspirations of the rogue state of Iran, and in the prevention of the proliferation of non-conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction.

This Iranian regime is a clear and present strategic threat to Israel, but it is no less a threat to the values of the EU, the international community, and the security of the region and the world as a whole. In fact, many countries in the Middle East - particularly the Arab/Sunni regimes - have an increasingly acute sense of the threat they face from a nuclear Iran.

As a whole, the EU takes this threat seriously. Yet, the delaying tactics of the Iranian regime have bought them significant leverage, and time is of the essence. The breakthrough in their technological capability can happen sooner then we think.

One can still hear - from some capitals - hesitation and doubts. One can hear talk of the possible effect of oil prices, or the need to give more time – which, of course, the Iranian regime exploits only to move closer to nuclear weapon know-how and capability.

There are some who perceive the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as a single, isolated, and somehow manageable problem. They are deeply, and dangerously, mistaken.

If it becomes clear that the world is not going to seriously confront this threat, this can lead to a domino effect. Some countries in the region may seek protection in nuclear weapons of their own. Others may feel compelled to appease or submit to the Iranian regime. In either case, we will face an unacceptably dangerous and volatile situation.

It has become vital that the EU, as a key player in this issue, increase its efforts in preventing further delays, and proceed to the immediate implementation of effective sanctions, in addition to any other measure effective in preventing a nuclear Iran.

These three issues which I have mentioned above -- Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran -- demonstrate the necessity of close coordination and cooperation between Israel and the EU. The common aspect of all three issues is the fact that Israel and the EU, along with other moderate countries, are in the same camp, sharing the same values, facing the same forces of extremism which threaten Israel, the EU, and the entire international community alike.

On the background of the growing challenges, we have to think about a new model for the relations between Israel and the EU, which will enable a significant upgrade of the political and security relations, as well as those in the economic, research, cultural and social/human fields.

The European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the Action Plan between Israel and the EU, adopted in December 2004, offer a very important foundation on which we can build the new model for our relations. This model should be based on the principle of “differentiation” incorporated in the ENP, which enables the EU to structure its relations with the partner countries on the basis of their capabilities and mutual interests.

Important work has already begun in order to implement the Action Plan. For example, in the political chapter, cooperation started in the fields of counterterrorism, the reinforcement of cooperation in International organizations, and the fight against anti-Semitism. Just the same, there is a need to further enhance the political dialogue in order to further improve mutual understanding, to overcome misperceptions, and to develop common tools needed to confront the political and security challenges.

More hard work is needed – on both sides - to make the most of the existing possibilities for the accession of Israel to European programs and agencies in the various fields [such as energy, space cooperation, environment, judicial cooperation, culture, youth and more].

The time has come to implement the Essen Declaration and to accelerate the discussions on the development of a new strategic model for future enhanced relations between Israel and the EU. This has to be based on the view that such a closer relationship is to the benefit of both sides and can contribute to the improvement of mutual understanding and trust.

As I emphasized during the last EU – Israel Association council, which took place in June this year, I truly believe that the road should ultimately lead us to a significant participation of Israel in the European Integration Project.

Thank You.
........................................................................benny

This would be a small indication that the anti-christ is nearing the entrance onto the world stage, because to deal with the serious issues, that would have to include the temple mount..........................................................................................................................................Dec. 27, 2006 15:20 | Updated Dec. 27, 2006 15:37
Abbas proposes 'backdoor' peace talks with Israel
By ASSOCIATED PRESS



Talkbacks for this article: 5

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas proposed Wednesday the start of "backdoor" negotiations with the Israeli government on the most difficult problems of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

"It is the right time to talk about this issue seriously," Abbas told reporters after he met Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Tuesday.

Recent weeks have seen a growing momentum toward reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert meeting Abbas on Saturday and the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan Washington commission, reporting to US President George W. Bush that progress on the Israeli-Palestinian dispute would contribute to reducing the conflict in Iraq.

Abbas did not spell out why he was proposing that the negotiations with Israel be "backdoor" - meaning conducted out of the media spotlight. But as one of the architects of the Oslo peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians in 1993, he is known to champion quiet, informal diplomacy.

"We have the idea of a backdoor channel between us and the Israelis, with the participation of one or all members of the Quartet to discuss all the issues of the final status," Abbas said, referring to the four Western powers - the United States, Russia, European Union and the United Nations - that oversee the peace process.

Abbas said he had proposed backdoor negotiations to Prime Minister Olmert at their weekend meeting, and that the Israeli leader had no immediate objection and promised to consider it.

Abbas said he planned to discuss the idea with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice when she comes to the Middle East next month.

"This is not secret negotiations, therefore, they would help more than they would harm," Abbas said.

Abbas made it clear that he wanted the talks to focus on the issues that have been the hardest to resolve in previous negotiations - the future of Palestinian refugees, the sovereignty of Jerusalem - which both Israelis and Palestinians claim as their capital, and the borders of the future Palestinian state.

It is not clear if Olmert would agree to tackle the thorniest issues rather than proceed by the more cautious route of step-by-step negotiations and interim agreements.

It is equally unclear what would be the reaction of Hamas to what might emerge from backdoor talks with Israel.
...............................................................benny

The Secret Diplomacy Channel
by Michael G. Mickey

(12-26-06)

Throughout the years RaptureAlert.com has been in existence, I've closely watched events taking place in the Middle East while considering what Bible prophecy tells us is ultimately going to take place.

A BBC report entitled "A year of Mid-East disappointment" reflects my sentiments as much as it does those of its author, Jeremy Bowen, in many regards. Like Bowen, I thought 2006 might be a better year in Middle East peacemaking than in the past but that hasn't turned out to be the case. Far from it!

Having said that, however, I am more convinced, as we near the end of 2006, that we're very close to the conditions necessary for the advent of the Antichrist to occur than I've ever been before! All the pieces of God's prophetic puzzle - in all its intricacy - continue to slide ever closer together as I continue to document to the best of my ability!

Bowen writes the following, in part, concerning the Middle East's troubled 2006:

The most dangerous long-term problem there is that it is harder and harder to see how a properly sovereign Palestinian state could be established alongside Israel.

The horrible irony of the current moment is that more leaders than ever before agree that a "two-state solution" is the only way ahead.

The Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, does and so does Ehud Olmert, Israel's prime minister, and a long list of others headed by George Bush, Tony Blair and the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

Even Khaled Meshal, the exiled political leader of Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, though he says that he will not recognise Israel, is prepared for negotiations to create a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, and a ten year truce with Israel.

Assuming for a moment that leaders are telling the truth when they say they want a Palestinian state, a big reason why it is not happening is that they do not mean the same thing.

While everyone in the diplomatic world is crying for "peace and safety" to come to the Middle East, leading us closer to prophetic fulfillment concerning the onset of the Tribulation Period that will coincide with the Antichrist confirming a seven-year covenant of peace in the Middle East "with many" (Daniel 9:26-27), it seems that everyone involved in the peace process has a slightly different goal in mind concerning what the much sought after "two-state solution" will actually consist of! That, brothers and sisters in Christ, is no small problem.

Without a consensus of ideas for bringing it about, how does one find peace?

A lack of consensus, even among those most involved in the Middle East peace process, namely the Quartet of Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, continues to hold up progress being made in the troubled Middle East.

A good example of this lack of consensus was seen in the recent peacemaking efforts of Spain, Italy and France which seemed, for a time at least, to be moving a powerful segment of the revived Roman empire's diplomatic machinery in a direction away from the Quartet's Roadmap peace plan. Now however, somewhat surprisingly to me, the EU seems committed on some level to incorporating Spain, Italy and France's 1991 Madrid peace conference-like concept into a necessary ingredient for the Quartet's Roadmap peace plan to work. The lack of consensus that has led to that taking place, however, has slowed peacemaking efforts significantly as this newest peace initiative has required all the Quartet's diplomatic power brokers to figure out a way to mesh the Spain-France-Italy initiative into the final Quartet plan that will, hypothetically thus far, give birth to Palestine! What a mess!

And then there are the Palestinians themselves, who seem incapable of agreeing on anything! Some of them are supportive of the continuance of terroristic acts against Israel as a means of obtaining their goals while others want to sit down and at least talk about peace. Again, there is no consensus among a key component of bringing peace to the region which threatens, at least somewhat, to plunge the Palestinians into a civil war that will definitely be of no benefit to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

And the Israelis? There are many, myself included, who think that Ehud Olmert is so overwhelmed by the international community's incessant ramblings about the failed tactic of "land-for-peace" that he's willing to threaten the very survival of Israel to appease them. Those who see that Olmert is on wobbly legs are striving to stop him from caving in to Israel's enemies as he did in handing over Gaza, which has proven disastrous as expected. And then there are those inside Israel who are, like Olmert, tired of fighting what seems a never-ending battle. These are willing to do just about anything that offers even a faint glimmer of hope that Middle East peace may come, particularly before Iran gets a nuclear weapon.

Israeli fears: They may well be warranted

In the BBC report linked above, Bowen writes the following concerning Israeli fears at the moment:

For Israelis, the world around them looks alarming.

Israel remains the only Middle Eastern state with nuclear weapons.

But suddenly its military hegemony in the region, unquestioned for almost forty years, feels less solid.

The Israel Defence Forces performed badly in Lebanon, and have not been able to break the will of the Palestinians in the occupied territories.

The IDF could not stop crude rockets being launched into Israel from Gaza.

A sense of business unfinished hangs over from the Lebanon war, while military intelligence reports that Syria is arming itself, apparently for self-defence, with missiles to which Israel is vulnerable.

And then there is Iran, and its nuclear ambitions.

Iran denies it wants to make nuclear weapons. It says it wants to generate electricity.

The Israeli government, like the United States, believes that the Iranians want the bomb. They fear that if Iran had a nuclear weapon it would be able to threaten the existence of the Jewish state.

Military action against Iran, by the United States or Israel, still cannot be ruled out.

It is not at all clear whether any of the military options available could destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

It is clear that any military action would carry a heavy cost, as Iran has a number of ways of hitting back.

A good portion of Israel's confidence was scarred by the Lebanon war earlier this year and Israel's enemies are smelling blood! Syria and Iran are preparing for war in the opinion of many, due, once again, to a lack of consensus on the part of the international community to deal with these two terror-loving rogue states, one of which is openly calling for Israel's destruction while seeking nuclear weapons. But, in spite of all this, Israel has nothing to fear, right? The Jewish state still has the United States and Christians around the world on its side, right? Well, sort of.

As seen in a Chandler News-Dispatch article from earlier this month, clergy "representing many of the largest denominations in the country are urging U.S. leaders to once again put their vast influence behind a negotiated end to Mideast violence and make working for peace "an urgent priority.""

Surely, the ramblings of some clergymen from a variety of faiths couldn't influence United States foreign policy while the Bible-believing Church is still in the fight for Israel, right? If the Church was as engaged politically and as committed as it once was to the Word of God, no way! But, sadly, it isn't. Sure the die-hard evangelicals are holding the line for the apple of God's eye but there are the Rick Warren-type Christians of the world who are visiting with Israel's most despised enemies to the shame of us all, as WorldNetDaily's Joseph Farah has done an outstanding job of pointing out recently I might add. This is, naturally, sending some pretty strong mixed signals to Washington concerning where the loyalties of today's Christians lie.

Is it any wonder, as such, that the United States is slowly starting to turn its back on the nation of Israel, as we see in a Middle East Newsline story, by blocking the transfer of weapons and technology to the Jewish state?

Christians, we need to open our eyes when we see words like the following found in the Middle East Newsline story (emphasis added mine):

"Nobody will say openly that there is a problem," a government source said. "But there is a serious problem that reflects the marginalization of Israel in U.S. strategy."

The marginalization of Israel in U.S. strategy? Church, are you out there? If so, it's time for us to start praying like wild for the peace of Jerusalem that we not be held accountable when we stand before Christ for what the apostate religious leaders of our time and our elected officials are allowing to take place under our noses that places Israel in a more precarious position to make a literal deal with the devil in the form of the Antichrist's peace covenant to come!

Could the Rapture of the Church be closer than is clearly visible? Of course!

Two things in closing:

The European Jewish Press is indicating that the EU is hoping for a Mideast peace process revival. Not only that, we see within the details of the article the possibility that there is much more activity going on diplomatically in the troubled Middle East, which seems on the verge of blowing apart at the seams, than we're often aware of!
A major breakthrough in Middle East peacemaking could come with little to no warning whatsoever, as we see in the final paragraphs of Bowen's BBC report linked above. They read as follows:
The Middle East is capable of springing surprises.

Perhaps there is a secret channel of diplomacy that journalists have not found out about, that will tap into the longings for peace that many people in the Middle East share.

Let us hope so because if there is not, 2007 is looking very gloomy.

With all that's going on that threatens to keep the Middle East from entering a state of peaceful coexistence, is it possible that the prophesied prince of Roman descent described in Daniel 9:26-27 is utilizing a "secret channel of diplomacy" that could lead to a major breakthrough in Middle East peacemaking in 2007? One never knows but the fact the citizenry of the world is now, by necessity, eyeing the Middle East with concern a nuclear conflict could potentially occur there in the not-too-distant future is a scenario that is begging for a hero to come forth!

Wondering what would happen if a madman like Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad obtained a nuclear weapon and was willing to use it, a world that has been near panic-stricken since September 11, 2001, all the while wondering what would happen if a madman like Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad obtained a nuclear weapon and was willing to use it, is hungering for a man like the prophesied Antichrist to come along bearing the promise of "peace and safety." The stage for a hero like that to arrive, if it isn't set already, soon will be!

A secret diplomacy channel that could lead to the sudden announcement that peace has come to the Middle East. Could there be one in the works right now and, if so, could that be why we're told the Tribulation Period is going to come upon the world like a snare or a flood, as well as why we're told that Christ will come as a thief in the night, at a moment when we think not?

Luke 21:35-36: For as a snare shall it come on all them that dwell on the face of the whole earth. Watch ye therefore, and pray always, that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man.

Matthew 24:37-39: But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark, And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.

Matthew 24:42-44: Watch therefore: for ye know not what hour your Lord doth come. But know this, that if the goodman of the house had known in what watch the thief would come, he would have watched, and would not have suffered his house to be broken up. Therefore be ye also ready: for in such an hour as ye think not the Son of man cometh.

With every passing day, Christ's return draws closer, both conditionally and chronologically.

Soon, Christians! Soon!

................................................................benny

INTL - Iran showdown- past the point of no return

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Showdown
By Kenneth R. Timmerman
FrontPageMagazine.com | December 27, 2006

The nuclear crisis boiling away under the surface for the past three years with Iran has finally erupted.

Over the next three to six months, expect things to get much worse, with a very real possibility of a war that could spread far beyond the confines of the Persian Gulf.



How we got here was entirely predictable – and avoidable. So is the path to a violent future.



We got to this point because the White House essentially caved in to intense pressure from the CIA and the foreign policy establishment, and refused to do the one thing that could have headed off this crisis: that is, to support the rights of the Iranian people and their struggle for freedom against this clerical tyranny. And now, it is almost – almost – too late.



The immediate trigger for the crisis occurred on Saturday, just two days before Christmas, when the UN Security Council finally quit dithering and passed a binding resolution to impose sanctions on Iran because of its illegal nuclear program.



While far from perfect (remember: this is the UN), UNSC Resolution 1737 bans nuclear and missile-related trade with Iran, and includes a short list of Iranian government entities and individuals whose assets could be subject to seizure and who could be banned from international travel.



(The United States had wanted both to be mandatory measures in this resolution, but gave in to a Russian demand to again give Iran more leash).



The UN Security Council passed a similar, binding resolution on July 31 giving Iran one month to suspend its nuclear programs in a verifiable manner, or else…It’s taken all this time since that the earlier deadline expired for China and Russia to exhaust their formidable bag of diplomatic tricks. Now even they have come to acknowledge the obvious, that Iran is using the IAEA as a foil for acquiring all the technologies it needs to make the bomb.



Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad responded typically to the news from Turtle Bay in New York. “This resolution will not harm Iran and those who backed it will soon regret their superficial act,” he said on Christmas Eve.



“Iranians are neither worried nor uncomfortable with the resolution...we will celebrate our atomic achievements in February,” he added.



In earlier statements, he has claimed Iran would have a big nuclear “surprise” to unveil to the world by the end of the Persian year, which ends on March 20. So unless he is just blowing smoke (and I will explain shortly why I don’t believe that he is), then we will be facing very bleak choices in very short order.



Remember, just a few weeks ago, Ahmadinejad announced to the world that Iran had completed its uranium enrichment experiments and was now preparing to install 3,000 production centrifuges at its now-declared enrichment plant in Natanz, in central Iran.



His announcement fell exactly within the timeline that Israeli nuclear experts have derived from Iran’s public declarations to the IAEA, and the on-site inspections by IAEA experts in Iran.



As I wrote after interviews in Israel this past June, the Israelis projected that Iran would complete work on two 164-centrifuge experimental enrichment cascades within six months, and that installation of the 3,000 centrifuge pilot plant would take another nine months. From then, it would take Iran twelve months more to make its first bomb’s-worth of nuclear fuel.



So far, Iran is right on schedule. This will give it nuclear weapons capability by September 2008 – just in time for the U.S. presidential elections. (And remember: this timeline is not speculative. It is based on information, not intelligence.)



Once the UN Security Council resolution was passed, Ahmadinejad’s top nuclear advisor, Ali Larijani, said the regime now planned to accelerate the installation of the production centrifuges.



“From Sunday morning [December 24] , we will begin activities at Natanz – the site of 3,000-centrifuge machines – and we will drive it with full speed. It will be our immediate response to the resolution,” Iran’s Kayhan paper quoted him as saying.



How is this possible? Well, for one thing, it is likely that Iran has been producing centrifuges in factories and workshops it has not declared to the IAEA. Worse, it may be operating a clandestine enrichment facility buried deep underground already, as many in Israel and U.S. intelligence have long believed.



The Israelis told me this summer this was their “worst-worst case” scenario. But a senior Israeli intelligence official I saw recently said the likelihood of that “worst-worst case” now appeared to be far greater than he or others had previously believed. “There can be no doubt they have a clandestine program,” he said.



And because it’s clandestine, we don’t know the size or shape of it, and therefore can’t make estimates of Iran’s nuclear timeline based on speculation and fear. But now the Israelis, the Americans and the British are beginning to understand – finally – that what they don’t know about Iran could be fatal.



After all, they are facing a president in Iran who has said that the Holocaust never really occurred under Hitler, but that he intended to carry it out himself, by accomplishing Ayatollah Khomeini’s goal of “wiping Israel off the map.”



On December 21 – just two days before the UN Security Council resolution – British Prime Minister Tony Blair gave the bleakest assessment of his entire tenure at 10 Downing Street of the threat posed to the West by the Islamic Republic of Iran.



Speaking in Dubai, he gave an unusually blunt speech that warned of a monumental struggle between Islamic moderates and Islamic extremists, and that labeled Iran as “the main obstacle” to hopes for peace.



For the first time, a key world leader actually uttered parts of the laundry list of Iranian regime misdeeds that people like myself and Michael Ledeen and Iranian dissidents such as Rouzbeh Farahanipour and Reza Pahlavi have been warning about for years.



Blair said there were "elements of the government of Iran, openly supporting terrorism in Iraq to stop a fledgling democratic process; trying to turn out a democratic government in Lebanon; floutting the international community's desire for peace in Palestine - at the same time as denying the Holocaust and trying to acquire nuclear weapons capability.”



Blair expressed surprise that despite these overt deeds, “a large part of world opinion is frankly almost indifferent. It would be bizarre if it weren't deadly serious.”



"We must recognize the strategic challenge the government of Iran poses," Blair added. "Not its people, possibly not all its ruling elements, but those presently in charge of its policy."



While all of this is developing, the United States and Britain have begun a quiet buildup of their naval forces in the Persian Gulf, with the goal of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to international shipping.



The spark point of open military confrontation could occur in many different ways.




The Iranians, for example, might choose to get directly involved should the U.S. military aid the Iraqi government in a crackdown on the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army and the Badr brigade, two Shiite militias fueling the sectarian violence in Iraq. (A clear sign that Iran is contemplating just such a move was revealed on Christmas day, when the U.S. Acknowledged it was holding four Iranians captured during a raid on the Headquarters of Abdulaziz al-Hakim in Baghdad just three weeks after he met with President Bush in the Oval Office).



Should Iran send troops, or escalate its current level of military involvement in Iraq, the U.S. might choose to take the war into Iran, say by attacking Revolutionary Guards bases near the Iraqi border that were involved in aiding the Iraqi Shi'ite militias.



Should the United States bomb a Rev. Guards base here or there, the Iranians might choose to respond by launching “swarming” attacks against U.S. warships in the Persian gulf, or by attacking a foreign-flagged oil tanker carrying Iraqi or Kuwaiti oil, or by increasing rocket and missile supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon to spark another diversionary war against Israel.



There are scores of ways this could happen. But where it gets us is to a direct military confrontation with Iran – an Iran which could be a nuclear power, and certainly will be a suspected nuclear power, in a matter of months, if not weeks.



And there is no easy way of walking this back. Even the insane Baker-Hamilton proposal of a direct dialogue with Iran will not get them to abandon their nuclear program, which this regime in Tehran has clearly identified as a strategic asset it is willing to make great sacrifices to develop and protect.



So fasten your seat belts. We are in for a rough ride.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles...e.a.............benny

Dec. 28, 2006 20:55 | Updated Dec. 28, 2006 21:00
New Livni idea: Negotiations now, implementation later
By HERB KEINON



Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is expected to discuss with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during her upcoming visit to the region the possibility of negotiating with the Palestinians now over provisional borders of a Palestinian state, but delaying implementation of that plan until the Palestinians dismantle the terrorist infrastructure, it was reported on Thursday night.

In recent days Livni has discussed these ideas informally in a non-binding manner with prominent Palestinians such as former finance minister Salam Fayad and former information minister Yasser Abd-Rabbo, as well as with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Livni's Office denied to comment on details of the plan, while sources in the Prime Minister's Office were quoted throughout the day as denying that Livni had drawn up a plan or presented a plan to the prime minister.

Livni, in an interview with Haaretz published Thursday, said that she saw herself as suitable candidate for prime minister, a comment likely to add tension to her relationship with Olmert. Livni did not say, however, that she planed to run against Olmert in the future.

Rice is expected in Israel in early January.

The Jerusalem Post has learned that Livni's meetings with Fayad were not her first, but that she holds regular meeting with prominent Palestinians in a "non-binding" fashion.

No final status issues with the Palestinians were discussed in these informal talks, The Post has learned, and contrary to some press reports, the issue of Jerusalem was not raised.

Livni, however, was said to have "very concrete ideas of how to re-ignite the diplomatic process with the Palestinians."

These ideas were based on the notion that the best way out of the current stagnation was to provide the Palestinians with a series of incentives - such as this week's decision to release frozen tax revenue to the Palestinians and release Palestinian prisoners - and also to clarify through negotiations the political horizon that would await the Palestinians were they to take real action to uproot the terrorist infrastructure.

The logic behind this is to make it clear to the Palestinians what price tag they are paying for continuing to support Hamas and its policies, and provide an incentive for them to support the moderates in the Palestinian camp. Post comment | Terms


.......................................................benny

The Way Prepared
Bible prophecy at first can be sweet. But, when some of the implications begin to sink in, prophecy can soon turn bitter. And, when that happens, it's easy to become anxious. So, there is something that I read this morning I will share.

On the first day of Unleavened Bread, when the Passover lamb was being sacrificed, His disciples said to Him, "Where do You want us to go and prepare for You to eat the Passover?" And He sent two of His disciples and said to them, "Go into the city, and a man will meet you carrying a pitcher of water; follow him; and wherever he enters, say to the owner of the house, 'The Teacher says, "Where is My guest room in which I may eat the Passover with My disciples?' And he himself will show you a large upper room furnished and ready; prepare for us there." The disciples went out and came to the city, and found it just as He had told them; and they prepared the Passover (Mark 14:12-16 New American Standard Bible).

Sometimes we Christians can be like Jesus' disciples. We can forget the full nature of our Lord and Master. We correctly see His humanity; We see Him coming down from heaven and becoming one with us -- walking with us and making Himself available to us. But, if we're not careful, we can easily become so in love with His humanity that we forget His deity.

When the time came for Jesus and His disciples to observe Passover, a room had been already prepared for them and was waiting; It was only a matter of knowing where to go. Friends, if that was true for Jesus' followers two thousand years ago, it can be true for us today. You see, God has already prepared for us everything that we need. It's only a matter of knowing where to go. That's why we should always place our close and personal relationship to our Lord and Master Jesus Christ before everything else. Only He can tell us where to go.

When something in prophecy makes us anxious, we should bring to mind the parts that bring us joy. After all, even seeing the least desired fulfillments of the prophecies prove the Bible true. And, for those of us who have placed our hope in Scripture, that alone can be enough to overcome our fears.

When on January 1, 2007, Germany takes over the EU's next six-month rotating presidency, some interesting changes are expected. For one thing, the so-called "Troika" concept will become official. In the past, it was common to see the member state holding the current EU presidency working together with the past and the future holder of the presidency. On January 1, it will be required. Under the EU's new triple-shared presidency system, Germany will actually lead in setting a common agenda for the two following presidencies as well. In other words, instead of just six months, expect to see the direction taken by the Germany presidency continued for a period of one and a half years.

And, at the very top on Germany's agenda we find two prophetically significant revivals. Germany will set the EU on a course to revive both the failed constitution and the stalled Middle East peace process Read about it here I And here. And, as I pointed out before, that means it will most likely be the primary direction of the EU's foreign policy for the next three presidencies.

Here are two more items that may be worth our attention. The first is an insightful interview with King Abdullah of Jordan about the new Arab peace plan Read it here. The second is about the UN's new Alliance of Civilizations (AoC). It appears that children's lessons have already been developed Read about it here. If so, once again it suggests some of the negative end-time events may be much further along then most of us would like to think.

Yes, some parts of the prophecies -- like the Antichrist's coming war against the saints -- can make us anxious. But, if God went to the trouble to tell us about these events before they happen, He has also prepared for us when they come. What we need to do is stick close to Jesus.

He'll show us the way prepared.

.............................................benny

Dec. 28, 2006 23:37 | Updated Dec. 28, 2006 23:47
'NATO starting to take interest in Iran's nuclear program'
By YAAKOV KATZ



NATO has begun taking a major interest in intelligence information about Iran's nuclear program, according to Israeli defense officials who recently held talks with senior officers in the Western military alliance.

NATO's interest stems from growing concern that diplomacy will ultimately fail, the Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post this week, and that military action will be necessary to stop Iran's race to obtain nuclear weapons.

Earlier in the month, IDF Military Intelligence (MI) hosted a NATO conference on global terrorism and intelligence, following which high-ranking MI officers said Israel planned to establish an intelligence-sharing mechanism with NATO.

"There is a growing interest on NATO's part regarding the intelligence collected around the world on Iran's nuclear program," a senior defense official said. "They want to get to know the material just in case."

According to the official, Iran was, until now, a "taboo" issue for NATO and was rarely brought up in official functions and talks between member countries. The official said that recently senior military officials in NATO have expressed growing interest in the up-to-date Israeli assessment on Iran.

A diplomatic official said that Iran was a "sensitive issue" for NATO and that while there were certainly countries - like the United States - that would like to see possible NATO involvement on the issue, other members from Europe were so far preventing this from happening.

"There are people who want this issue to come up and want NATO to start talking about Iran," the official said. An important organization with great military capabilities, NATO, the official said, should at least begin to discuss the nuclear threat emanating from Iran even without connection to possible military action against the Islamic Republic.

"This should be on NATO's agenda," the official said. "But since NATO works by consensus among its members, countries have the ability to prevent discussions on certain issues."

In line with the efforts to enhance military cooperation with NATO, the IDF plans to dispatch a Navy officer to Naples in the coming weeks, where he will participate in Operation Active Endeavor.

NATO launched Operation Active Endeavor in the wake of 9/11 and has succeeded in bringing together a number of countries from the Mediterranean that work together in a joint headquarters based out of Naples and share information concerning naval terror.
..............................................benny

INTL - Plan B: Syria’s forgotten — but dangerous — nuclear program

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Olivier Guitta: Plan B: Syria’s forgotten — but dangerous — nuclear program

Olivier Guitta, The Examiner

Dec 28, 206 3:00 AM (16 hrs ago)

WASHINGTON - The Iraq Survey Group is calling for open negotiations with Syria, but new reports show that Damascus is up to no good. Indeed, while world attention is rightly focused on the nuclear capabilities of Iran and North Korea, Syria has been quietly — but quickly — advancing its own secret nuclear program.


The first signs appeared in 2003 when the Russian Foreign Ministry inadvertently revealed that a Russian-Syrian agreement for the delivery of a nuclear power plant in an undisclosed Syrian location had been signed.

In 2004, Syrian President Bashar Assad made a point to say that Syria would not dispose of its WMD program until Israel did the same. “Since some of my country is occupied,” Assad added, “Syria can legitimately use all the necessary means to liberate its territories.”

German magazine Der Spiegel revealed in March 2004 that Swedish authorities and the CIA were investigating a very likely Syrian nuclear program secretly developed in Homs in the northern part of the country. That July, investigators looking into the Pakistani nuclear network of A.Q. Khan pointed out that Syria may have procured centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to produce a bomb.

This fact was confirmed in May 2006 in a declassified report to the U.S. Congress on the acquisition of technology relating to weapons of mass destruction. Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Syria also got help from Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Keep in mind that Syria’s economy was very dependent on Iraq’s trade, especially oil-smuggling revenues. Sunday Telegraph journalist Con Coughlin affirmed in a September 2004 article that 12 Iraqi nuclear scientists — who were transferred to Syria and given new identities before the war — were on their way to Iran to assist their counterparts there in building a nuclear weapon. “The results of the research would then be shared with Syria,” Coughlin added.

But what really broke the camel’s back was a recent report from the well-informed Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al Seyassah. It quoted European intelligence sources as saying that “Syria has an advanced nuclear program” in a secret site located in the province of Al Hassaka, close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders. British sources quoted by the paper believe that “it is President Assad’s brother, Colonel Maher Assad and his cousin Rami Makhlouf, who supervise the program.”

This nuclear weapons program is based on material that Saddam Hussein’s two sons shipped to Syria before — and during — the U.S. war against Iraq. According to the Kuwaiti newspaper, this explains why international investigative teams found no proof of Hussein’s nuclear program.

Furthermore, British sources in Brussels affirm that “Iranian nuclear experts contribute to the Syrian program along with 60 Iraqi experts who had taken refuge in Syria since 2003 and experts from the ex-Soviet republics.” British intelligence says this information is validated by their German counterparts, who were well established in the countries close to the ex- Communist block, including Syria.

Europeans fear that a focus solely on the Iranian nuclear program might facilitate a much quieter joint Iranian-Syrian program of uranium enrichment in Hassaka. The geographical choice for the Syrian nuclear site is very meaningful. Because it is located in an area with a Kurdish majority, the program evades Western suspicions. And striking against these installations would initially hurt the Kurds — who historically have sided with the West against the Baathist regimes in both Baghdad and Damascus.

In light of all these facts, it is not surprising that Syria might actually turn out to be “Plan B” for the mullahs’ regime in Tehran. This is, in fact, quite a smart strategy: While the world community focuses on Iran, Syria can continue its own nuclear program without unwelcome attention.

But because of the close links between Tehran and Damascus, sealed by an important defense agreement signed over the summer and the fact that Syria would do anything to please its benefactor, Syria getting the bomb would be exactly like Iran getting it. For proof, Al Seyassah reported on Dec. 13 that top Syrian leaders had transferred $3 billion to the Iranian central bank.


http://www.examiner.com/a-478177~Oli...r_program.html
........................................benny

December 28, 2006
The Looming Regional Mideast War
By Jack Kelly

It wasn't all about oil. But if it hadn't been for the oil, there probably wouldn't have been a war.

I speak not of the current conflict in Iraq, but of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, which led to each subsequent conflict, including the big one looming on the horizon.

Most of the oil in both Iraq and Iran comes from either side of the Shatt al Arab, a tidal river formed by the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates, which flows 120 miles southeast into the Persian Gulf, and which forms much of the border between Iraq and Iran.

About two thirds of Iraq's oil comes from the fields north of Basra.

About 90 percent of Iran's oil comes from the province of Khuzestan, on its side of the Shatt al Arab.

The Iran-Iraq war began in September, 1980, when Saddam Hussein tried to seize Khuzestan, where a large majority of the people are ethnically Arab. The war, which lasted until July, 1988, swiftly degenerated into a bloody stalemate in which upwards of a million people (mostly Iranians) were killed or wounded.

More important to Saddam Hussein -- who has a pretty cavalier attitude about other peoples' lives -- the war cost tens of billions of dollars.

It was primarily money that caused Saddam to invade Kuwait in August, 1990. Iraq and Kuwait share the Rumaila oil field, which Saddam wanted all to himself. And if Saddam took over Kuwait, he wouldn't have to repay the $14 billion the Kuwaitis loaned him to help finance his war with Iran.

American intervention frustrated Saddam's ambitions, and set the stage for the continuation of the Gulf War in March, 2003.

So why the history lesson? On Christmas day, the National Academy of Sciences issued a report which indicates Iranian oil production is about to plunge.

Iran currently earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. Oil profits account for about 65 percent of Iranian government revenues.

But Iranian oil exports could decline by half within five years, and virtually disappear within ten, said Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.

The effect on Iran would be catastrophic. Thanks to mismanagement by the mullahs, and corruption on a scale so vast as to make even an Iraqi blush, Iran's economy is already a basket case. According to the CIA World Factbook, more than 40 percent of Iran's people live in poverty; the unemployment rate is 11 percent (more than double that for people under 30), and the rate of inflation tops 13 percent. Oil exports are just about Iran's only source of foreign exchange.

Impending fiscal catastrophe could make the Iranians more tractable, Prof. Stern thinks. If the U.S. can "hold its breath" for a few years, it might find Iran to be a much more conciliatory country, he told Barry Schweid, the AP's diplomatic writer, in an interview.

But one of the big reasons why oil production in Iran is declining does not suggest a happy outcome. Iran is spending so much on its nuclear program that next to nothing is being invested in modernizing oil production. Though the West has made it clear it will assist in developing nuclear energy if Iran will forswear its nuclear weapons programs, Iran would rather have the nukes than the carrots the West is offering.

So rather than come begging with his hat in his hand, it's more likely Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will seek a Saddamite solution. When Saddam Hussein invaded Khuzestan in 1980, he didn't say he was doing it for the oil. He was asserting Iraq's historic territorial claims to the region, and acting to protect the Arabs in the province from Persian oppression. Or so he said.

And if Iran should take aggressive action against its oil rich neighbors, it will, ostensibly, be to protect Shia minorities from oppression by Sunni overlords. Or so Mr. Ahmadinejad will say.

In all the Gulf countries, there are Shia Muslim minorities who perform the kind of scut work blacks used to do in the segregated South of half a century ago. In Kuwait, Shias account for 25 percent of the population. In Saudi Arabia, Shias are just 15 percent -- but a majority in the coastal province where most of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are located.

Religion and national pride fuel Iran's aggressive foreign policy. Islamic extremists think Islam should rule the world, and that their particular sect should dominate Islam. Persians think Arabs are inferior, and ought to pay them proper respect.

But it is impending economic catastrophe that could trigger regional war. If you think Allah is on your side, and that your race is inherently superior, you can afford to wait. But if you think economic doom is just around the corner, maybe you can't.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...mideast_w.html
__________________
Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.
Arnold J. Toynbee
......................................benny

Well benny.....do you think we can hold our breath that long? I say the race is on. It isn't just about holding our breath. As you know, many other factors with a time line are at work as well.

I do not think that we can hold our breath that long......Last Night I thought of something interesting......At this moment, logicly...there is about 5 months before Iran will have thier new weapons system setup around it's nuclear sites, that Russia recently sold Iran.....From what I understand...Israel must attack those nuclear sites before the weapons system has been completely set up, If Israel is going to attack at all. If this scenerio were true...It would be a good guess,that Israel would attack this coming March.........I realize that "WE" cannot know the day or the hour of the rapture.....But it would be fitting if the rapture were to happen on Easter Day .......As you know...I do believe that Isaiah 17;1 and the rapture may happen back to back, but not necessarily in that order....It's just speculation on my part, but very interesting.........................benny

He Will Return, He Really Will!

For yet a little while, and He who is coming will come and will not tarry (Hebrews 10:37).

Aware of the Return
The sweltering heat was almost unbearable. Every summer, ministers and their families from over 180 churches throughout the state of Virginia converged under a 1,200-seat metal tabernacle for the annual state Camp Meeting. In those days ministers wore dark suits and white shirts with ties. During July, the metal tabernacle became a sauna and the nice, dark suits, drenched in sweat, became more like scuba divers’ wetsuits.

In this setting I heard a man preach a message that has remained with me to this day. It was the night I was made aware of the Return of the Lord!

Preachers’ kids always sat around the edge of the open-air tabernacle. This enabled us to slip out to the rest room or meet other kids at the swings, about 75 yards away. As the hot sun slid behind the rugged mountains in Roanoke, Virginia, the temperature began to cool, bringing much-needed relief to the muggy, sticky air in the metal church.

This setting brought a warm glow as the lights in the tabernacle were turned on and the service continued in full swing.

That night, at age 11, I was about to hear and experience something different. Being raised in a strict Pentecostal upbringing, church was a normal routine three times a week, plus revivals. My father, a pastor, hosted evangelists several times a year who stayed in our homes.

This night, I distinctly remember a slim, dark haired preacher named T.L. Lowery being introduced. As he began preaching, I was mesmerized with his presentation. He never stood behind the pulpit; he stood on the wall running parallel to the platform. He was animated. He was preaching about the return of the Lord.

Like a booming shofar, he said, “You young people may think you can hang on to the coattail of your parents when they are caught up to meet the Lord but you can’t. If you don’t have a relationship with Christ you’ll be left behind!”

That caught my attention. A mental image formed on the screen of my mind. I pictured a loud trumpet sounding, and Mom and Dad gradually losing gravity and heading toward the heavenly city. I was grabbing Dad’s suit jacket, only to have my fingers slide like they were coated with slick oil and lose their grip. I fell to the earth.

T.L.’s message had painted a picture for me. That was the night I made up my mind that I cannot miss this great event that will transpire one day! It was the night I became aware of the coming of Christ.

Every Generation Looks to the Future
In Scripture, it appears that every generation looks to the future. Every generation has some type of promise or warning that keeps them moving forward until the moment of fulfillment.

Noah anticipated a coming flood during his lifetime (Genesis 6:1-4).
Jacob anticipated marrying Rachel (Genesis 29).
Abraham waited 24 years to receive his son of promise (Genesis 17).
Israel waited 400 years for their time of deliverance from Egypt (Genesis 15:13).
Joshua and Caleb waited 40 years, knowing they would see the Promised Land (Joshua 14:6-7).
David patiently waited until Saul’s death before taking the throne as king (2 Samuel 1).
The Jews knew that after 70 years they would return from Babylon (Jeremiah 25:11)
When a generation has a promise, they do not always know WHEN the promise will come to pass. The old rabbi, Simeon, who daily entered the Temple in Jerusalem, knew he would not die until he saw the Messiah.

And it had been revealed to him by the Holy Spirit that he would not see death before he had seen the Lord’s Christ (Luke 2:26).

Imagine being able to withhold death because you had a promise. Once Simon saw Mary and Jesus, he knew he had seen the Messiah. He then prayed:

Lord, now You are letting Your servant depart in peace, according to Your word; for my eyes have seen Your salvation (Luke 2:29, 30).

Today’s generation is continuing to look into the future and anticipate the promise God has for us. We are anticipating the gospel being preached around the world (Matthew 24:14). We are preparing for and participating in the great outpouring of the Holy Spirit that will impact the sons and daughters (Acts 2:17). We are discerning the present and future signs of Christ’s return! We are a generation with a future!

Some would reason, “Didn’t your grandparents and parents also look forward to the return of Christ, and some have passed away not seeing it occur?” This is true. I am reminded, however, of all those faith heroes in Hebrews 11 who preformed marvelous feats. Yet, the Scripture says:

These all died in faith, not having received the promises, but having seen them afar off were assured of them, embraced them and confessed that they were strangers and pilgrims on the earth. For those who say such things declare plainly that they seek a homeland. And truly if they had called to mind that country from which they had come out, they would have had opportunity to return. But now they desire a better, that is, a heavenly country. Therefore God is not ashamed to be called their God, for He has prepared a city for them (Hebrews 11:13-16).

Never lose faith in God’s promises! Never quit anticipating the future! Never forget those simple messages that put faith in your heart even when you were a child!

Christ will return! He really will!

........................................benny

I love this story so much!



I can think of a couple of evil kings that anticipated it too. Killing babies as a pass time. I wonder if those woes lay ahead as in days past. There's a hint of it but l can't remember the verse.

CRISIS - Israel and Iran: To Attack or Not to Attack thats the Question

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Israel and Iran: To Attack or Not to Attack thats the Question

December 29, 2006

by Sol Palha

"We cannot advance without new experiments in living, but no wise man tries every day what he has proved wrong the day before." - James Truslow Adams American Statesman

We would like to state up front that we are viewing this situation from an observer's perspective. Hence we are not taking sides we are just looking at how things could develop based on the series of events that have, are and will most likely continue to unfold. In addition most wars and almost all confrontations are usually based on the opponent's perspective rather then hard cold facts. As usual one of the big components of war is psychology and if we can get some sort of insight into the mindset of the two players' one truly can come away with some pretty incredible information. This information can then be utilized to positions oneself strategically to best deal with the upcoming problems.

Those in charge in Iran are hell bent on seeking the destruction of Israel and things are now reaching such a stage that Israel might have no option but to attack.

One of Iran's most influential ruling cleric called Friday on the Muslim states to use nuclear weapon against Israel, assuring them that while such an attack would annihilate Israel, it would cost them "damages only".

"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world", Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani told the crowd at the traditional Friday prayers in Tehran

Rafsanjani is second only after the all powerful Ayatollah Ali Khamenehi and as such he wields considerable power. He has also admitted that several million Muslims could die in a nuclear war with Israel but states that would be a small price to pay to get rid of Israel forever.

Iran's own president Ahmadinejad is also openly calling for the destruction of Israel; it appears that almost everyone in power is ready to embark on a mission to destroy Israel at any cost. President Ahmadinejad openly mocks the US and now that Bush has suffered a massive blow with loses both in the House and Senate the rhetoric is simply going to increase. Bush is no longer in a position to start dropping bombs over Iran and increasingly it appears that he might need either Iran's or Syria's help to stabilize things in Iraq.

Israel cannot accept a nuclear armed Iran as it comes down to pure survival; they feel that if Iran has a nuclear bomb they will not hesitate to use it immediately. Israel also feels that the world is grossly underestimating Iran's progress and feels that they will be ready to produce nuclear weapons relatively soon as opposed to the west View of 7-10 years.

Iran does not currently have nuclear weapons, and would appear to be about two years away from acquiring nuclear weapons. By some time in 2006, however, Iran could be producting fissile material for atomic bombs using both uranium enriched at Natanz and plutonium produced at Arak. The Natanz facility might produce enough uranium for about five bombs every year, and the Arak facility might produced enough plutonium for as many as three bombs every year.

If Iran did acquire atomic bombs, it would put pressure on other countries in the region do the same. Many Arab countries believe it is unfair that Israel has nuclear weapons. If Arab countries, notably Saudi Arabia but also Egypt and possibly Syria, found themselves caught between a nuclear-armed Israel and a nuclear-armed Iran, it would greatly increase pressures to pursue their own nuclear options. This could result in a regional arms race in the Middle East which is likely to be quite destabilizing, given the number and intensity of conflicts and instabilities in the region.

Before Ahmadinejad become president he was actively involved in recruiting individuals for martyrdom operations. In fact he still runs ads in the local newspapers seeking potentially new martyrs. He even went on record to recently state that Martyrdom was "the most divine Artmanship."

"Jaafari, a senior officer in the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), told a hard-line weekly close to Iran's ultra-conservative President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the new 'Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison' (Gharargahe Asheghane Shahadat, in Persian) would recruit individuals willing to carry out suicide operations against Western targets.

"The full text of the original interview in Persian can be seen on the weekly's website at http://www.partosokhan.ir/283/page08.pdf." According to Iran Focus the interview is titled "Commander of Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison: Let America and Israel know, each of our suicide volunteers equals a nuclear bomb".

Jaafari told the weekly Parto-Sokhan, "The Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison has been activated and we will form a Martyrdom-seeking Division for each province in the country, organised in brigades, battalions and companies to defend Islam."

"Jaafari, a senior officer in the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps stated that "The Imam [Khomeini] said years ago that Israel must be wiped off the face of the Earth, but so far practical steps have not been taken to achieve this. Our garrison must spot, recruit, organise and train martyrdom-seeking persons to be able to materialise this objective"

IRAN'S president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, says Israel is an alien implantation whose people should return to Europe or perhaps settle in Alaska Full story

"Thanks to people's wishes and God's will the trend for the existence of the Zionist regime is downwards and this is what God has promised and what all nations want," he said. "Just as the Soviet Union was wiped out and today does not exist, so will the Zionist regime soon be wiped out," he added. His words received warm applause from delegates at the Holocaust conference, who included ultra-Orthodox anti-Israel Jews and European and American writers who argue the Holocaust was either fabricated or exaggerated.

Iran states that they have now recruited over 40,000 individuals who are ready and willing to martyr themselves for the liberation of Islamic lands. There is not one week that goes by without some rhetoric flying out of Iran in regards to Israel or the US.

Now most of this could be viewed as simple rhetoric but the military chaps in Israel are also trigger happy and jumpy; this was clearly demonstrated in the ill planned and unnecessary invasion of Lebanon. The problem here is that the governments of both these nations hate each other; when emotions take over things get very dangerous. It is also rumoured that North Vietnam has supplied nuclear know how to the Iranians and that this could speed up things up even more.

Israel is also becoming more vocal in terms of what action it's willing to take against Iran; Olmert recently openly admitted that Israel possesses Nuclear weapons.

n a German television interview broadcast on Monday as he began his first official visit to Berlin, Olmert said: "Iran, openly, explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say that this is the same level, when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia?"

The reticence is a major grievance for Arabs and Iran, which see a double standard in Western calls for Tehran to accept checks on a nuclear program that it says is for civilian use.

"It could be that Olmert wanted to hint at Israel's capability as part of the aggressive statements he has recently been making, with the goal of warning the West that if they don't take care of Iran, Israel will," wrote Yedioth analyst Ronen Bergman.

"We continue to pursue exactly the same policy," he said. "We will do our jobs and nobody should think for even a moment that in the light of all the developments we will remain idle."

Israel now has a problem; how does one deal with individuals that are not afraid of dying for a cause. Worse yet how does one deal with a government that not only appears to support this outlook but also openly promotes it. The military in Israel is terrified that if Iran gets hold of a nuclear weapon that it will be the end of Israel. No other nation other then perhaps the US is taking this threat as seriously and hence Israel feels that they are going to have to act alone and act fast. Even the US is no longer in a position to attack Iran; they are completely bogged down in Iraq.

The other problem it has is that its image has become heavily tarnished. Israel's once invincible army was unable to crush a bunch of guerrillas and actually ended up losing several battles with them. You can bet your bottom dollar that Iran was closely paying attention to these details. Iran is no Iraq and no Lebanon; they are heavily armed and a war with them will result in huge loses for Israel. Israel is still technically the stronger of the two when one takes into consideration its nuclear capacity but no one really knows how many new weapons the Iranians have acquired from both the Chinese and Russians. It appears that Israel is in between a hard place and a rock. If they do nothing and Iran gets hold of a nuclear weapon it could mean the end of Israel; if they attack then they are going to suffer massive loses. In the end President Olmerts generals must be thinking along the same lines but they also feel that if they wait too long things could go completely out of control. It now appears that the chances of Israel attacking Iran are over 75%. If this attack does transpire the world is going to be in for a massive oil shock and the fragile US market that is trying to deal with the collapse of the housing sector will truly tumble. Energy stocks, alternative Energy stocks, uranium stocks and almost the entire commodities sector will experience a big move up. This move up will not all take place at the same time; some sectors might actually fall with the markets while other sectors in the commodity markets rise.

Conclusion

Imagine 40,000 plus martyrs ready and willing to die controlled by a government whose views on martyrdom are extremely favourable and who has openly stated that they seek the destruction of Israel. If the US was presented with the same problem they would have hardly hesitated in trying to bomb the hell out of Iran. We think the Israeli government and militarily are increasingly feeling that their only option is to attack as soon as possible. This attack will not be easy in fact if it occurs it will get downright ugly and the energy markets will go ballistic. As it is things are already bad enough and if Israel attacks Iran its almost impossible to tell how bad things could get; without a doubt the situation will get extremely explosive and the whole region will be thrown into state of massive turmoil.

Foot note

Our Religious provocation Index has now traded past 900; we stated that if it traded past 900 before the end of the year that we should brace ourselves for a huge increase in violence all over the world especially in the Middle East. In November this index surged a full 30.5 points to put in a new all time high and break past the 900 mark. This does not necessarily mean that Israel will Attack Iran immediately; a huge civil war could break out in Iraq and cause massive instability to the entire region. A massive civil war would eventually draw in Turkey, possibly Syria and definitely the other Sunni countries which would seek to make sure that the Shiites do not gain too much power.



Note to the violence has increased by a factor of over 200% in Afghanistan. One of our associates headed back with his cousin looking to possibly move back to his country; 6 months later he returned stating that there was no way in hell he would move back permanently. The story below quite clearly demonstrates how the situation has suddenly changed in Afghanistan.

According to a tally by The Associated Press based on reports from Afghan, NATO and coalition officials, nearly 4,000 people have died in violence during 2006 -- mostly militants but also including about 300 civilians.Meanwhile, in a video message obtained by AP Television News in Pakistan, Afghan insurgent leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar claimed that U.S. troops would be forced out of Afghanistan like the Soviets before them.

Conclusion

The consequences of Israel mounting such an attack are going to be huge and the impact will be felt on a global basis; here is a partial list of what could transpire if a war should break out between these two nations.

Oil explodes upwards and in doing